Question TAF vs MOS

[Neal]

Various choices on weather models and predictions. What have you found to be a better resource? TAF or MOS?

 

[Tsquared]

I will look at both plus other resources (NWS, Storm Radar app, etc) but where I typically fly I find the MOS to be a better resource. YMMV

 

[Neal]

I've been unimpressed with TAF in my area hence the question. Looking more at MOS lately.

 

[midlifeflyer]

I've been unimpressed with TAF in my area hence the question. Looking more at MOS lately.

Remember that both the TAF and the MOS forecast are location-specific. The TAF only covers a 5 mile radius around the TAF airport. This can make a difference anywhere but it becomes especially significant when terrain features mean the TAF airport and your destination are separated. not by distance, but by terrain features. The other major difference is that the MOS is strictly the forecast model data. The TAF is essentially the model plus human human interpretation. That is going to mean differences even if the same location is involved. You might see thunderstorms predicted in one and not in the other. Here's an example. Same airport; different forecasts.

B

 

[Flightix]

Honestly, I’ve never really dealt with MOS; I’m more used to METARs and TAFs. As far as I know, MOS is an automatic forecast that relies, among other things, on historical data. But in reality, you can look at both forecasts and try to find a middle ground.

 

[Cactus Charlie]

My weather briefing starts with the NWS forecasters discussion.

Next I look at GFA