Ta reached at 9e

[79%N1]

the problem is the portfolio. Too many 50 seaters that are looking more and more unattractive to the legacies. The brasilias also have limited time left until they go off to the likes of great lakes etc to be run for even cheaper. Skywest saw the writing on the wall and like pncl tried to consolidate to achieve mass, including legacy contracts. At the same time though, the legacies were trying to rid themselves of the gas guzzling 50 seaters, and the mainline pilots were looking to recapture flying in new contracts with the finally "healthy" legacies. It's a perfect storm. Legacies (except aa but that will change with a merger) make more money so no scope changes available through bk, new fatigue and hiring rules, and high gas to prevent starting an "independent" airline. Also, acquiring xpressjet did give the company mass, but also gave them tons of 50 seaters. Yes, some can be replaced with new 76 seaters for ual, but many more will have to be parked. Luckily for the pilots, all 3 legacies will be hiring big time within the next 5 years. Good timing.

Skywest is probably the strongest regional out there, that is true. But their large amount of 50 seaters and e120s does not make it immune from the whims of mainline ceos. They are calling the shots, and mainline pilots are willing to recapture some of the flying they lost in the last decade, as seen in both new contracts at dl and ual.


Bye bye---general lee

the great and powerful general has spoken! You have all been put in your place - you regional loser know nothings! Heed to the all knowing general!!!

 

[General Lee]

You guys sit here and blame everyone but yourselves! How many of you have sent a ********************k you message to RA? Thats the ********************ker that deserves the race to the bottom messages not the guys making 30 bucks an hour! You play right into the hands of the one percenters! Send RA your messages and quit blaming each other about what alpa and delta are doing to this career! Think about it! General Fucck head and RA want your lives on the unemployment line and you sit here and blame each other about who is at fault.

First of all budd, slow it down a bit, relax....I don't want you on the unemployment line, I want you at mainline if you tone it down a bit. I want everyone to have BETTER jobs, and better PAY, and jobs that are BETTER for the industry. We want mainline planes flying to a lot of ciites RJs are flying to now, with RJ pilots flying them at MAINLINE..... Got it? CHILLAX budd....... The 50 seaters do not work well with high gas. Nobody can say that isn't true. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

the great and powerful general has spoken! You have all been put in your place - you regional loser know nothings! Heed to the all knowing general!!!

Thanks for the acolades, but everything I stated was true, and if you don't think so, please state it. SkyWest has a lot of 50 seaters, and high oil and 50 seaters don't mix. The mainline CEOs don't seem to like them either it seems. I never called you guys losers, I just stated that a company with a portfolio full of something that is on the way out of an industry is fighting an uphill battle. I honestly hope a lot of you get hired at a legacy and have a better career because of it. Luckily, all 3 legacies will be hiring a lot in the next 5 years. That is good for everyone.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

The older frames are getting pretty close to running out of time anyhow. The old airframes that SkyWest has purchased or leased in the last few years are meant as a lower-rate stop-gap, not as an all-out solution. It's really not much different than the model that Allegiant's been using for a while now.

The next generation of airplanes are the solution, but until then...



Since more than likely, US/AA is going to be a hostile takeover type situation, I have a feeling that there's going to be a long while before anything regarding scope is achieved. Hell, the world's still waiting on HP/US.



The movement of pilots, and retirement of airplanes will have overall no ill effects on SKYW's health. In effect, one can view the upcoming issue as trimming fat and maximizing income without having to declare bankruptcy.




Immune from? No. A lot of leverage against? Yes. You'll see DL going after the Republic Clan and GoJets before they take on the SKYW juggernaut.

First off, thank you for your civil post.

You are right, your CRJ-200s are getting old, but there really is no 50 seat replacement out there. Your airlines invested in 70 and 76 seaters (66 seaters at UAL), and didn't get many "newer" 50 seaters. Even if you did, they still aren't efficient with high oil. You just can't spread out the costs with only 50 pax. When it comes to the turboprops, it doesn't seem like many mainline CEOs like them either, even if they are more efficient than the 50 seat RJs. Where are the ATRs, Dash-8-400s, etc? Not many at all out there, except a handful of Dash-8-400s at Horizon and Republic now. You say the next generation of airplanes is the solution now. Well, mainline scope clauses (recently enforced) won't allow that, and mainline management couldn't disagree, better financial times doesn't allow for scope givebacks instead of pay givebacks. There really were very few givebacks at all.

As far as US/AA goes, I think EVERYONE wants this merger to occur. The sticking point might be outgoing compensation, nobody really knows. The creditors want to know SOON the EXACT cost of the new, combined pilot contract. Apparently the US CEO and the creditor attorney met with USAPA last week to discuss this. Everyone knows the NIC award will be used since it was binding, and since the creditor committee and lawyers are getting involved, that could be a possible reason for that meeting. IOW, they want this thing rolling SOON. Even Bob Crandal had a youtube video done on DEC 22 to talk about the pilot groups getting together and getting the SLI done, or the merger, if it happens, won't be a good one. There is pressure out there to get it done. And, consolidation will only make the remaining airlines stronger, because there will be fewer competitors on the internet screen when buying a ticket.

You are right about trimming the fat when legacy hiring takes away a lot of regional pilots. But we all know training a pilot, especially from a caravan or a light twin to an RJ is not easy. It is costly. Throw in new hiring rules, and those fatigue rules, and regional expenses will rise. Maybe that is one reason mainline CEOs are bringing some of that flying back to mainline.

As far as who the CEOs go after next is up to them, but they are buying the larger RJs and giving the flying to whoever they want. They decide where the planes go, and they could always assign some airline a JFK base and see how the performance goes. What happens if the performance is bad? It's up to them, they decide what happens. It will be interesting to watch over the next few years, for sure.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AntiJedi]

First off, thank you for your civil post.

Thanks. I have no need or want to lower my bar to get a point across---even if I might be wrong in the end. I only hope for the same in return.

Your airline ... didn't get many "newer" 50 seaters. Even if you did, they still aren't efficient with high oil. You just can't spread out the costs with only 50 pax. When it comes to the turboprops, it doesn't seem like many mainline CEOs like them either, even if they are more efficient than the 50 seat RJs. Where are the ATRs, Dash-8-400s, etc? Not many at all out there, except a handful of Dash-8-400s at Horizon and Republic now.

The problem is the CEO's fears of the public routing away from turboprops for stupid reasons, much like frequent fliers route away from regionals for nearly the same stupid reasons, but they're reasons that the CEO's are willing to listen to. The ATR has a tarnished reputation. The D84 is too large. Mainline CEO's wouldn't be the ones buying them anyhow---and Atkin more than likely wouldn't let them.

You say the next generation of airplanes is the solution now. Well, mainline scope clauses (recently enforced) won't allow that, and mainline management couldn't disagree, better financial times doesn't allow for scope givebacks instead of pay givebacks. There really were very few givebacks at all.

The MRJ-70ER is perfectly within the DL, UA, and now AA scope clauses. However, by ordering the MRJ-90, SKYW is allowing airframe flexibility to meet the needs of scope agreement, but also any future flying needs, without having to shell out more money to include them. The MRJ's are coming, and that's all anyone needs to be concerned about right now.

As far as US/AA goes, I think EVERYONE wants this merger to occur. The sticking point might be outgoing compensation, nobody really knows. The creditors want to know SOON the EXACT cost of the new, combined pilot contract. Apparently the US CEO and the creditor attorney met with USAPA last week to discuss this. Everyone knows the NIC award will be used since it was binding, and since the creditor committee and lawyers are getting involved, that could be a possible reason for that meeting. IOW, they want this thing rolling SOON. Even Bob Crandal had a youtube video done on DEC 22 to talk about the pilot groups getting together and getting the SLI done, or the merger, if it happens, won't be a good one. There is pressure out there to get it done. And, consolidation will only make the remaining airlines stronger, because there will be fewer competitors on the internet screen when buying a ticket.

If there's one thing I understand about the US v. AA culture, the the AA unions are going to do their level best to bring the US unions to their knees, much like US's unions did to HP's unions. I suspect that it's not going to be a pretty merger by any means.

You are right about trimming the fat when legacy hiring takes away a lot of regional pilots. But we all know training a pilot, especially from a caravan or a light twin to an RJ is not easy. It is costly. Throw in new hiring rules, and those fatigue rules, and regional expenses will rise. Maybe that is one reason mainline CEOs are bringing some of that flying back to mainline.

I wouldn't worry about that. The fat trimming will coincide with aircraft reductions, but don't expect Atkin to let his baby suffer too much.

As far as who the CEOs go after next is up to them, but they are buying the larger RJs and giving the flying to whoever they want. They decide where the planes go, and they could always assign some airline a JFK base and see how the performance goes. What happens if the performance is bad? It's up to them, they decide what happens. It will be interesting to watch over the next few years, for sure.

I don't mind DL buying these birds, even if OO does somehow end up flying them at JFK (which is highly unlikely; ) it keeps them off of OO's books---especially since they've already committed to the MRJ so far. One thing's for sure, though, and that's that the JFK regional operation is an absolute joke in execution, from the gate setup, to aircraft movement. One would think that it's UA running the show over there.

 

[General Lee]

Thanks. I have no need or want to lower my bar to get a point across---even if I might be wrong in the end. I only hope for the same in return.



The problem is the CEO's fears of the public routing away from turboprops for stupid reasons, much like frequent fliers route away from regionals for nearly the same stupid reasons, but they're reasons that the CEO's are willing to listen to. The ATR has a tarnished reputation. The D84 is too large. Mainline CEO's wouldn't be the ones buying them anyhow---and Atkin more than likely wouldn't let them.



The MRJ-70ER is perfectly within the DL, UA, and now AA scope clauses. However, by ordering the MRJ-90, SKYW is allowing airframe flexibility to meet the needs of scope agreement, but also any future flying needs, without having to shell out more money to include them. The MRJ's are coming, and that's all anyone needs to be concerned about right now.



If there's one thing I understand about the US v. AA culture, the the AA unions are going to do their level best to bring the US unions to their knees, much like US's unions did to HP's unions. I suspect that it's not going to be a pretty merger by any means.


I wouldn't worry about that. The fat trimming will coincide with aircraft reductions, but don't expect Atkin to let his baby suffer too much.



I don't mind DL buying these birds, even if OO does somehow end up flying them at JFK (which is highly unlikely; ) it keeps them off of OO's books---especially since they've already committed to the MRJ so far. One thing's for sure, though, and that's that the JFK regional operation is an absolute joke in execution, from the gate setup, to aircraft movement. One would think that it's UA running the show over there.

Good post. I agree with a lot of what you say. It appears most legacy CEOs are dumping the props as fast as they can, except UA and US. AA Eagle is dumping the AT7 fleet, and the only props left at DL are the SKW Brasilias, and they may be flying "at risk" flying too. DL dumped the Saabs, and Gulfstream's new operation, "Silver" is picking up the cheaper slack. I expect Great Lakes or Gulfstream "Silver" to take most of them around the Country and be the big wigs in Cheap prop lift in the future, undercutting everyone for the feed, with or without Jerry's permission. That will be left to the people who assign the feed, the mainline CEOs.

As far as the MRJ goes, have you ever seen one? Has one flown? How close are they? I had an FAA mx jumpseat to Nagoya from Honolulu and he had some interesting things to say about that. When investing in an "unproven" product, some people may not be happy with something that really looks good on paper. All I have to say is I hope it turns out great.


You are right about a possible huge mess with AA and US. The infighting between AWA and US has been ridiculous, and the APA sometimes doesn't get along well with others. I think a lot of that has been changed by a BK, no pay raise in 10 years (US and AA), and the creditors breathing down their necks CAN motivate people to do something better. Parker wants to rule the World with a huge AA. The AA pilots don't want BK wages or rules. AWA pilots want out of USAPA. The US East guys are just nuts for turning down the binding NIC award. All together, I think they want something better, and the creditors want their money.


JFK is a tough market. The terminals are getting built, and things will be better eventually. But, it is called "delay--F---K." It is tough on everyone, and the NYC attitude can make everyone cranky. I just try to be overly nice, and they don't like that.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AntiJedi]

I expect Great Lakes or Gulfstream "Silver" to take most of them around the Country and be the big wigs in Cheap prop lift in the future, undercutting everyone for the feed, with or without Jerry's permission. That will be left to the people who assign the feed, the mainline CEOs.

I think you mis-understand me here.

The mainline execs wouldn't buy props if their customers don't want them. However, they could put out an RFP (or someone offer a pro-rate deal, a la GoJets at SAT) to have the need filled. If Jerry won one of those RFP's, then more than likely he would want as much control of those frames as possible, which whould mean buying/leasing them in SKYW's name for flying should that contract eventually run out. The United née Contintental Q400 deal goes completely against this philosphy.

I'm of belief, though, that if SKYW were to get the DL CR9's carroted to Pinnacle right now, they would be more than happy to deal with not having their name on the lease until the MRJ's start coming online. An acceptable compromise, one might say.

As far as the MRJ goes, have you ever seen one? Has one flown? How close are they? I had an FAA mx jumpseat to Nagoya from Honolulu and he had some interesting things to say about that. When investing in an "unproven" product, some people may not be happy with something that really looks good on paper. All I have to say is I hope it turns out great.

It's still a minimum of 9 months until the first flight, but that shouldn't deter anyone from investing into the product. Heck, how long was the 787 delayed due to extra testing, etc., etc., yet airlines kept throwing their money in. Mitsubishi may not have been in the large aircraft department for the last 30 years, but the Japanese are VERY fickle with making sure things are to spec. Heck, they may actually be erring on the convervative side with their numbers right now.

 

[General Lee]

I think you mis-understand me here.

The mainline execs wouldn't buy props if their customers don't want them. However, they could put out an RFP (or someone offer a pro-rate deal, a la GoJets at SAT) to have the need filled. If Jerry won one of those RFP's, then more than likely he would want as much control of those frames as possible, which whould mean buying/leasing them in SKYW's name for flying should that contract eventually run out. The United née Contintental Q400 deal goes completely against this philosphy.

I'm of belief, though, that if SKYW were to get the DL CR9's carroted to Pinnacle right now, they would be more than happy to deal with not having their name on the lease until the MRJ's start coming online. An acceptable compromise, one might say.



It's still a minimum of 9 months until the first flight, but that shouldn't deter anyone from investing into the product. Heck, how long was the 787 delayed due to extra testing, etc., etc., yet airlines kept throwing their money in. Mitsubishi may not have been in the large aircraft department for the last 30 years, but the Japanese are VERY fickle with making sure things are to spec. Heck, they may actually be erring on the convervative side with their numbers right now.

Just remember, the larger props now count as Jet's in the scope limitations. That wasn't the case before. CAL could have as many DH8-4s as they wanted. Both DL and UA count large props equal to 70 seat jets I believe.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[flyboyike]

You are right about a possible huge mess with AA and US. The infighting between AWA and US has been ridiculous, and the APA sometimes doesn't get along well with others. I think a lot of that has been changed by a BK, no pay raise in 10 years (US and AA), and the creditors breathing down their necks CAN motivate people to do something better. Parker wants to rule the World with a huge AA. The AA pilots don't want BK wages or rules. AWA pilots want out of USAPA. The US East guys are just nuts for turning down the binding NIC award. All together, I think they want something better, and the creditors want their money.

I have a feeling a US/AA merger will turn out to be a bloodbath that will make US/HP look like kindergarten playground squabbles by comparison.

 

[777forever]

I have a feeling a US/AA merger will turn out to be a bloodbath that will make US/HP look like kindergarten playground squabbles by comparison.

If I may politely interject, I may be mistaken but I believe the MaCaskill-Bond legislation prevents a US/HP situation from repeating.



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