SWA upgrade

[Red Raider]

With SWA having 5500 pilots today and retiring approx. 1200 in the next ten years plus adding approx 1500 new pilots for 140 new airframes, I see a newhire today at 4300 out of 7000 pilots in ten years and still about 1000 numbers away from CA (not lance). Is this correct or is there something I'm missing? If someone has more accurate numbers, I'd really like to see them. Thanks. RR

 

[Bake]

As of today there are approx 4968 pilots on property including the new hires last week. I say approx because I don't know if anybody retired this week. So your 5500 is incorrect. Hire approx 500/yr and retire approx 110/yr. These are accurate as I can get so I will let you do the math. Im not good in that dept.

 

[chase]

With SWA having 5500 pilots today and retiring approx. 1200 in the next ten years plus adding approx 1500 new pilots for 140 new airframes, I see a newhire today at 4300 out of 7000 pilots in ten years and still about 1000 numbers away from CA (not lance). Is this correct or is there something I'm missing? If someone has more accurate numbers, I'd really like to see them. Thanks. RR

In the next 8 years approximately 1,021 pilots will retire (not assuming Age 60 changes) based upon current numbers. SWA currently has 4975 pilots on property as of this week. SWA is projected to acquire approximately 310 airplanes ("firm" order to buy+options to buy+rights to buy aircraft: source is latest 10K found under investor relations at www.southwest.com) through '14. Assuming 10.5 pilots per aircraft 3255 pilots will be required by SWA during that 8 year period.

Add the number of retirements that will need to be replaced (1021) + required pilots for new aircraft (3255), you have approximately 4376 pilots coming on to the property over these 8 years. This isn't a precise science but to me coming in '14 (a real inexact science in the airline world) SWA would have approximately 8330 pilots on property (+ or - a couple of pilots)...math in public was never my strong suit.

Folks hired now would appear to have about a 7 yr (good situation, at the front of a big hiring boom) or 9 year (tail end charlie of a hiring boom) upgrade to Capt....when I was hired it was just under 5, I was told by the union it would take 9 years, the Company said 7, it will take me about 6.5 years to be a line holding Capt (on reserve mind you). Kind of like now....not a bad situation & one I'm thankful for.

Again someone else can run the numbers & do a better job of doing a prediction than what I did. Hope that provides some encouragement that growth is still occurring. If Age 60 changes, that number will slip slightly obviously but I won't get into that debate :bomb: ..cheers