SWA takes a hit & DL is flat for Dec

[Hose A. Jiminez]

Lowecur couldnt find his A$$ with two hands and a flashlight. But he'll sooner find that than any EMB order from SWA.

 

[FDJ2]

Ok, the domestic load factors for this DEC were a little bit lower than last year.

General, one thing to consider when comparing December 2002/2003 numbers, if memory serves me correctly the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2002 was December 1st, whereas this year it fell on November 30th. IOW, half of 2002's Thankgiving traffic, one of the busiest travel weekends of the year, fell on December. It might not seem like too big of a deal, but it could have been enough to make up for the small decrease in traffic.

 

[New2Flying]

General Lee is correct. Just because a load factor is down, does not mean that a company is not making money. Conversely, a load factor can be very high and no money will be made at all.

It is based upon the yield that each seat produces.

An example - my airline in late 1990 had a huge fare sale at 50% off. The company told everyone that they were trying to get people to travel because of the situation in the Gulf. (truth was, they were in trouble) So, later, they sent out an internal communication saying that load factors were 75%. Well, most people were not intelligent enough to understand that if you sell the seats at 50%, then you have to cut the load factor in half. With the break even at 60%, there was no chance to make money. Shortly after all this, they filed bankruptcy.

So, that is an illustration about load factors....

 

[lowecur]

HOSE

Lowecur couldnt find his A$$ with two hands and a flashlight. But he'll sooner find that than any EMB order from SWA.

Next time your on a layover in Tijuana, be sure to find a stahl in the airport and drill a hole in the partition. I'm sure some toothless, incestuous chancho would be glad to give you something for your annual paycheck of 2000 pesos.

 

[pegasus]

Just my opinoin

Lowecur,

I have watched this website for the past few months. I used to post regularly (Nov 01 - Apr 03) while waiting to start at SWA.
You have an opinion. You are entitled to voice it here. Just try to imagine you are face to face with all these guys, and they are all your buddies! It may help you adjust that attitude.
Happy New Year.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

I am not trying to slam you, just having a little fun with the analyst remark. You are entitled to your opinion, and I just posted an article that states otherwise. No big deal. A lot of people don't really like Delta, and I just try to defend what I see on the line. Medflyer likes to say negative stuff too. We have some strengths and weaknesses at Delta, and we are trying to work through them. We had a pretty good DEC, and the economy is getting better and yields are up. Our DCI connections are also helping the bottomline, and we may even get some paycuts shortly, which may really help too. We shall see....again.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

Re: Just my opinoin

Lowecur,

I have watched this website for the past few months. I used to post regularly (Nov 01 - Apr 03) while waiting to start at SWA.
You have an opinion. You are entitled to voice it here. Just try to imagine you are face to face with all these guys, and they are all your buddies! It may help you adjust that attitude.
Happy New Year.

Thanks for the thought. I think some of them would like to see me face to face for a little tune-up.

My opinions are to stimulate a discussion, and although some may take exception, it's usually the guys that are employed who don't like what I say. I don't think they are being protective of the unemployed; I think it's just they don't like to hear anything negative about their airline.

Maybe I'm wrong and DL will fly its way out this abyss with a growing economy and a 19% giveback. Maybe WN will continue to grow their fleet of 737NG's and never look back. These are all possibilities, but I have a different opinion. Either way, there are only so many jobs out there no matter who survives. Long term stability is the secret to success in this business, but you have to be forward looking and realistic.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

I think you may be correct about us flying guys don't like hearing bad news, but you have to back up your statements with factual articles etc.... Opinions are like A$$holes, everyone has one......But, I welcome your opinions. Just back it up if you can. Your initial analysis was discounted by the article I found, which gave positives about DL and SW. I think DL has created some problems by parking so many airplanes, but we are adding back 8-10% capacity this year (2004), which will take advantage of the higher yields etc. (CO and NW did not cut capacity like we did, or add as many RJs)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

General

DL was flat year over year. This is not a good sign for a Dec that was reported to be very good for some of the carriers.

I think my statement is very accurate. I don't have to post the numbers for each and every carrier that is reporting. I have usually referenced where I think it is necessary, ala UNISYS. Remember that analysis?

I was comparing DL to some of the other carriers that have reported. I think Medflyer happened to bring up AMR, CAL and UAIR on the international front. You talk about increasing yields on a month to month basis with DL, but you are referring to Revenue Passenger Miles total. I don't think the yield per pax was disclosed. In fact Baker said that CAL's yield fell by 3.1% for the fourth straight month year over year, and this is used as an industry wide water mark as to how the industry is doing.

Sorry if I don't measure up to your credibility standards, but that's something I gotta live with.

 

[Maynard]

I think

There is your answer...Nuf said from this guy...

 

[lowecur]

Maynard!!!!!!!!

There is your answer...Nuf said from this guy...

Last Call!!!!!!

If you hurry, you can have one more before your next flight. Let me ask you Maynard, will you apply for the 175 when it comes to LUV? They have a great auto-pilot so you can sleep it off. At $50 per hour you'll have to BYO.

 

[lowecur]

Snoopy - King Parrot

As for the lower December LF, it's no surprise at all: in December 2002, the Sunday after Thanksgiving fell in December, boosting that month's numbers. This year, the entire Thanksgiving weekend fell in November, boosting that month's numbers but not December's, so the 12/03 to 12/02 comparision looked worse for that one month.

But at any rate, so what? As noted above, the quarter (which included all the same holidays & heavy travel days in both years) and the full year showed improvements. For someone as involved in "the airline industry" as lowecur's writings indicate that he is, to miss such an obvious explanation for the lower December #s, as well as to miss the clear report of better performance quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, suggests to me an agenda.

Conspiracy!!!!!!!

I guess the fact that all the other carriers faced the same situation and didn't have a 2 pt drop in LF is of no consequence? Wait till B6 starts siphoning pax from Manchester and Providence out of BOS. Those 1st Q numbers aren't gonna look too great. But I'm probably wrong, and this is all a bad dream.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

It has been stated in many articles (some that I can't find at this time of night) that the yields have increased since last year, and with a 74% load factor--would translate into better revenue than last year. That is obvious. As far as that Unysis article, there was some good info in there, but a lot of it was guess work---in the future. We don't know much about what WILL happen, but things are trending---like a better economy. That will help all of the airlines. There are also other things out there--like a weaker dollar currently. That may hurt some travel to more expensive Europe, but people who usually travel over there can afford it. With a better economy also, more people who do benefit will probably use some of that extra discretionary money to play and travel, and the Carribean and Europe will be their playgrounds. With a stronger economy also comes more business travel---to reach those customers you haven't seen face to face lately. We will also benefit from that---and more and more business passengers will fly on regular or business fares to just get to where they have to be. When the economy was tanking, many businesses chose to avoid higher fares, but now they will not be as conservative. That will help us too. Not everything is bad here in ATL.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[walleyevision]

E-170/190

I'm more of a lurker than a poster but I've got to chime in on this one...probably to my detriment.

The week before Christmas we had a jumpseater from the training dept. Evidently they had a meeting with Jim P. and the question of the E-190 came up. According to this jumpseater - and unknowingly verified by a senior Capt. who works at HQ's - SWA has seriously considered it to the point of sending people down to fly it/study it (the 170) and run all the possible numbers on it (the 170/190) to the Nth degree. To lowecur's credit, SWA has serously considered this aircraft. However - according to the jumpseater - the "wink, wink, nod, nod" from the CEO was that we know exactly what the costs and performances for this aircraft are and, after intense analysis, study and flight testing, what the competition's costs will truly be with this aircraft. As a result, we are not going to change our growth plans from those already announced anytime soon.

WEV