SWA takes a hit & DL is flat for Dec

[lowecur]

SWA LF was down to 64% from 66 last year. This will make the quarter barely profitable, and next quarter could be the 1st unprofitable quarter in a long time, as they will take a 30M hit for closing the reservation centers.

DL was flat year over year. This is not a good sign for a Dec that was reported to be very good for some of the carriers.

 

[Cyclone]

half full

OK...so let me get this straight SWA had another profitable quarter. Seems like a winner to me. Maybe someone just likes to stir up sh1t. I think the SWA glass is more than half full.

 

[lowecur]

Re: half full

OK...so let me get this straight SWA had another profitable quarter. Seems like a winner to me. Maybe someone just likes to stir up sh1t. I think the SWA glass is more than half full.

As they keep adding capacity, the LF's will continue to thin out. AMR and UAL will come up to speed in the next year, coupled with the increased pressure from the LCC's, WN will find it extremely difficult to maintain their past performance.

 

[Red Baron]

Lowecur,

You sound like one of those Democratic hopefuls talking about how bad everything is in the world. The economy is in a slump, etc. PLEASE! Spread your doom and gloom to those who really want to listen. Southwest will be just fine. They have A LOT more positive outlook than negative.

Happy flying,

RB

 

[SWAdude]

Lowecur,

Here is the article:

Southwest Airlines December Traffic Rose 1.1%
Tuesday January 6, 9:45 am ET

DALLAS (Dow Jones)--Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV - News) flew 3.93 billion revenue passenger miles in December, about 1.1% higher than the 3.89 billion it flew in December 2002.

A revenue passenger mile is one paying passenger flown one mile.

In a press release Tuesday, the carrier said its load factor, or percentage of seats filled, for the month was 64%, below the 66% it reported a year ago.

In the fourth quarter of 2003, Southwest flew 11.7 billion revenue passenger miles, about 5.4% above the 11.1 billion miles flown in the same period a year ago.

Fourth quarter load factor was 63.8%, up from 63% in the fourth quarter of 2002.

Southwest flew 47.9 billion revenue passenger miles in the full year, about 5.5% higher than 2002.

Full year load factor was 66.8%, above the 65.9% for all of 2002.


Hmmmm......

Fourth quarter up .8%

Full year up .9%

Your are the only "analyist" I have heard of predicting our first quarterly loss in over 25 years.

SWAdude

 

[T-Bags]

"Your are the only "analyist" I have heard of predicting our first quarterly loss in over 25 years"

Q1 1991?

 

[SWAdude]

After some research you are correct. We lost 8.2 mil in the first quarter of 91 during the gulf war. Interestly enough..we also paid a dividend for the quarter. Thats where I got mixed up. We have 109 consecutive quarters we have paid a dividend.

My mistake....one quarter since the 1970's is what I should have posted.

SWAdude

 

[TrimixDeepDiver]

Re: half full

SWA is in the least bit hurting, UAL and AMR ARE still hurting and USair too.

As they keep adding capacity, the LF's will continue to thin out.

Guess you didn't read the article in full because SWA ASM increase 4.3% over 2002. Not bad, they put the seats out there and the people came to sit in them with a 1.2% gain in pax carried over 2002. The LF was down 2 pts for December but for the year to date over 2002 it was only down .9 pts, for putting more than a million available seats in the system in 03' this is actually pretty darn good, in fact this shows that as SWA puts seats out there people will continue to fill them, guess that business model is continuing to work after all these years.

AMR and UAL will come up to speed in the next year, coupled with the increased pressure from the LCC's, WN will find it extremely difficult to maintain their past performance.

This is a joke right, cause it made me laugh. UAL will introduce Ted which is mainly UAL with a different paint job, I can't imagine how they will get the CASM's low enough enough to operate it profitably against Frontier and the other LCC's but it will take a full year of operating to see the true numbers on this venture. Usair is gonna feel some pain from SWA move into Philly. As far as American they actually decreased their ASM -4.5% over 2002 Dec and -6.5% year to date over 2002 (note: these are domestic ASM's) . Thats alot of seat miles takin out of the system, so I'm not sure what you mean by "speed up" next year.

You are obviously just hatin on SWA. Maybe instead of just looking at LF's you should learn to dicifer all the numbers and facts and understand what they mean and how they affect each other before posting what you "think" you know. SWA should have no problem having another great year this year as UAL,AMR,and USair continue to struggle. They've been increasing capacity and will continue, they will lower prices in Philly and other markets and can do this profitably with their lower Casm's than those of the top majors, And maybe to top it off they'll get an Emmy for their new TV show My Prediction, another profitable year in 2003' , 2004' , 2005' , 200X, and 20XX.....


article:
DALLAS, Jan 06, 2004 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via Comtex/ -- Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV, Trade) announced today that the Company flew 3.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in December 2003, relatively the same RPMs flown in December 2002. Available seat miles (ASMs) increased 4.3 percent to 6.2 billion from the December 2002 level of 5.9 billion. The load factor for the month was 64.0 percent, compared to 66.0 percent for the same period last year.

For the fourth quarter 2003, Southwest flew 11.7 billion RPMs, compared to the 11.1 billion RPMs recorded for the same period in 2002, an increase of 5.3 percent. Available seat miles increased 4.0 percent to 18.3 billion from the fourth quarter 2002 level of 17.6 billion. The fourth quarter 2003 load factor was 63.8 percent, compared to 63.0 percent for the same period last year.

For the year ended December 31, 2003, Southwest flew 47.9 billion RPMs, compared to the 45.4 billion RPMs recorded for the same period in 2002, an increase of 5.6 percent. Available seat miles increased 4.2 percent to 71.8 billion from the 2002 level of 68.9 billion. The year-to-date load factor was 66.8 percent, compared to 65.9 percent for the same period last year.

This release, as well as past news releases on Southwest, are available online at www.southwest.com .

 

[T-Bags]

ok t-bag..i'll bite...what was the loss in the first quarter of 91?

Not a slam in any way, but I'd remembered seeing a loss sometime back during the gulf war one days. Do a google seach with "Southwest Airlines, quarterly loss, 1991"

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

There you go again. Let's look at the article and break it down for you again:


ATLANTA, Jan. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL - News) today reported traffic results for the month of December 2003. System traffic for December 2003 decreased 0.5 percent from December 2002 on a capacity decrease of 0.3 percent. Delta's system load factor was 74.1 percent in December 2003, down 0.2 points from the same period last year.
Domestic traffic in December 2003 decreased 1.4 percent year over year while capacity increased 1.4 percent. Domestic load factor in December 2003 was 73.0 percent, down 2.1 points from the same period one-year ago. International traffic in December 2003 increased 2.9 percent year over year on a 6.5 percent decrease in capacity. International load factor was 78.7 percent, up 7.1 points from December 2002.




Ok, the domestic load factors for this DEC were a little bit lower than last year. But, the fares were higher---they have risen since this last Summer. Then our INTL load factor increased over 7%, and we have no LCC competition on those routes. We know that this Spring will be great for FLA and Spring Break, and next Summer should be great to Europe as long as there aren't any major Terrorist attacks....(then we all will be in trouble)

It is hard to compare last DEC to this one on a revenue stand point because fares did increase year to year. We will have to see what the numbers will be. Also, I don't think an average 74% load factor is that bad, but maybe you do. The yields are getting better, and that will help the bottomline eventually. Take a chill pill my friend.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[TrimixDeepDiver]

good point I forgot

Good point General, fares have increased over 2002, so relating that to the SWA article if the load factor was down only .9 pts with much added capacity and the fares were higher, well that means more money with more seats being sold....I may not be an expert but that looks like it could mean profits.....

 

[General Lee]

I am sure you guys will have a lot more profits than we will---primarily because at Delta----it is all "the pilots' fault."


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[flying@swa]

low cur

WHat you all have seemed to have missed here is that lowcur is a fool... a smart fool in the sense that he is able to continue to make so many folks PING with is idiotic banter...... to quote my favorite cartoon star... "what a maroon.... what an ignoramus!"

 

[General Lee]

Hey look guys, atleast CBS market Watch agrees with Lowecur----NOT!


Delta, Southwest and Alaska Air gain


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines all gained ground Tuesday after the three carriers reported their December traffic figures and passenger load factors.


The airlines all turned in lower year-over-year load factors, however each one also posted positive results in different segments.

Delta's (DAL: news, chart, profile) December load factor was 74.1 percent compared with 74.3 in the same period a year earlier. While its domestic load factor fell 1.4 percent, the Atlanta-based carrier's international load factor rose to 78.7 percent from 75.1 percent.

Systemwide, Delta's traffic was off by 0.5 percent.

Delta shares rose 36 cents, or 3 percent, to $12.24 in midday trading

Southwest (LUV: news, chart, profile) chalked up a load factor of 64 percent in December, down from 66 percent for the final month of 2002.

However, the airline's load factor for the fourth quarter rose slightly to 63.8 percent, compared with 63 percent for the same quarter a year earlier.

Revenue passenger miles flown, an industry benchmark measuring traffic, was relatively flat at 3.9 billion for December and increased 5.3 percent to 11.7 billion for the quarter, according to the Dallas-based carrier.

Southwest added 3 cents at $16.02.



Well, maybe Lowecur should not get into the "analyst" business. I think a stronger economy and no aviation terrorist attacks will help all of us this year. We shall see.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[SWAdude]

Well, maybe Lowecur should not get into the "analyst" business. I think a stronger economy and no aviation terrorist attacks will help all of us this year. We shall see.....


Knock on wood General. Knock on wood.

SWAdude

 

[Swerpipe]

Look for the order

Folks,

What Lowercur wants to say is that SINCE Southwest is doing so poorly, it may have to bring the glorious EMB190 to save the day. The most efficient aircraft since the Wright Flyer. The load factors will be great for an aircraft of this size and SWA will go back to Boeing and cancel the present order and substitute it for an entire Embaer fleet which ,given his analysis, is the future for SWA. Blah Blah Blah.... Look for the order!

P.S. By the way Lowercur did you see Airline on A&E? How would you fit all those folks on an Emb190? I know!, the last 37, 18 on one wing and 19 on the other.

 

[MedFlyer]

Here's another perspective on the numbers:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/ericgillin/10135293.html

"As J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker noted, Continental's yield, a measure of the revenue generated per passenger, fell 3.1% in December, marking the fourth straight month of year-over-year yield declines. In fact, the trend is getting worse, with yields off 1.1% in September, followed by a drop of 2.1% in October and a 2.2% fall in November. "

Kind of shoots a hole in the fares are higher theory.

The DL numbers aren't terrible especially when you consider the shift in the Sunday after Thanksgiving. What is concerning about the DL numbers is how DL is underperforming the industry. DL domestic mainline saw traffic drop 4.4%, yet ASM's only dropped 1.9%. Even in the international arena (where DL did show improvement), the improvement was far less than CO,AMR or even US!!!

The WN numbers aren't bad either. They're a little weak compared to the other LCC's, however given WN's size compared to those LCC's it's not surprising.

 

[spanky2]

Delta Mainline may be flat but take a look at DCI...I used to think scope was mouthwash.

Delta Air Lines

December Traffic



December 2003 December 2002 Change

RPMs (000):

Domestic 6,776,486 6,874,165 (1.4%)

Delta Mainline 5,918,163 6,193,194 (4.4%)

ASA 356,103 307,243 15.9% WOW

Comair 502,220 373,728 34.4% WOW

International 1,815,737 1,765,261 2.9%

Latin America 392,105 377,054 4.0%

Delta Mainline 382,081 369,436 3.4%

ASA 8,811 6,104 44.3% WOW

Comair 1,213 1,514 (19.9%)

Atlantic 1,336,233 1,309,747 2.0%

Pacific 87,399 78,460 11.4%

Total System 8,592,223 8,639,426 (0.5%)

 

[Snoopy58]

Based on his recent posts, it is my opinion that lowecur's financial interests will benefit if SWA's stock price goes down. I have no idea if this involves having a short position in the stock, something complicated with options, credibility for his "forecasting" prowess, or what, but from observing what he has posted here (Flightinfo) and elsewhere, that is my conclusion.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

As for the lower December LF, it's no surprise at all: in December 2002, the Sunday after Thanksgiving fell in December, boosting that month's numbers. This year, the entire Thanksgiving weekend fell in November, boosting that month's numbers but not December's, so the 12/03 to 12/02 comparision looked worse for that one month. All of this was in news stories a month or two ago, that December wouldn't look as good as last year; I think the stories were even posted here on Flightinfo -- definitely not news for someone who follows this stuff closely!

But at any rate, so what? As noted above, the quarter (which included all the same holidays & heavy travel days in both years) and the full year showed improvements. For someone as involved in "the airline industry" as lowecur's writings indicate that he is, to miss such an obvious explanation for the lower December #s, as well as to miss the clear report of better performance quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, suggests to me an agenda.

And I completely concur with the Bugs Bunny quotes above!

 

[lowecur]

geezzze, what a grouch

General

You'd think I dissed your kid or something. I'm glad you can find whatever solice you need with the parrots from SWA.

What both airlines will come to understand is the fact that this business is in a "deflationary cycle," and DL especially will need a major overhaul on the expense side in the near future. You can continue to see this through rose colored glasses, or you can come around and realize that your airline needs major help. Breaking even or 5% profit margins just aren't going to cut it with the debt DL is carrying.

As for SWA...........look for the order, and 50 new cities in 5 years. ERJ was recently downgraded by Smith, Barney at $35. a few weeks ago. To show you what the market thinks, the stock has only gone up further. I see someone for B6 mentioned $58. per hour on a 190 as a 1st year Captain. Not great money, but I'm sure it will climb to a good number in the 12th year.

Congrats to the B6 guys on their new city - Sacramento (A WN stronghold).