SWA LF's continue slump

[Jim Smyth]

Maybe we should go into banktrupcy like everyone else so we dont have to pay our full bills either! That should help the bottom line.

 

[cactuspilot]

Overheard at (brand x's) last big board meeting. " We realize we are loosing a little money on each flight, but not to worry, we will make it up in volume."

 

[jimEJet]

Wndshr!!

SKYKID...be very careful about throwing stones in glass houses. SWA, B6, Airtran (fill in the name) are ALL extremely vulnerable in today's airline industry. SWA will not be profitable after the fuel hedging expires. I remember some of us at the legacy carriers who were pretty cocky after our contracts came out in the early 00's....we foolishly complained that SWA was keeping the bar low with their pay....whoa! now look at us....history has a very evil way of repeating itself, so enjoy the ride at the top and try to force yourself to be humble!

carry on!

BEING JUST A PUP AT SWA I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE WITH YOU.

IT IS VERY DISCERNING BEING AT THE TOP PAY RANGE OF 737 OPERATORS.

I AM NOT NEW TO AIRLINE FLYING AND AM VERY VERY NERVOUS BEING HERE AT SWA. DON'T GET ME WRONG, I FEEL BLESSED TO BE HERE WITH ALL THE OTHER GREAT PILOTS THAT ARE UNEMPLOYED, HOWEVER. I REALIZE OUR RIDE HERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

LISTEN, WE WERE LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET A PAY RAISE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH, THOUGH, I BELIEVE WILL WILL BE GIVING IT BACK NEXT YEAR PLUS ANOTHER 15%. JUST MY HUMBLE OPINION.

WE'LL HAVE TO IN ORDER TO COMPETE WITH ALL THOSE BANKRUPT LEGACIES. I AM WORKING AS MUCH AS I CAN. (A TRUE FLYING WHORE.) I WANT TO WORK FOR MY CURRENT PAY LEVEL AS MUCH AS I CAN BECAUSE I KNOW NEXT YEAR I MAY BE DOING IT FOR 75-80 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

NOW, I KNOW ALL YOU SWA TYPES MAY THINK I AM BEING WAAAAAY TO PESIMISTIC, HOWEVER.

BEEN THERE DONE THAT. I HAVE WORKED FOR THREE AIRLINES. I WENT ON STRIKE AND HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATED BEFORE. I KNOW THAT OUR MANAGEMENT TEAM IS ONE OF THE BEST BUT WHEN OUR CEO SAYS; "NO AIRLINE WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN PROFITABLE AT MORE THAN $60 PER BARRELL." THAT RINGS A LOT OF BELLS FOR ME! HOW ABOUT YOU MY BREATHREN?

THEY WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH, TED, SONG, USAIR/AMWEST, INDEPENDENCE, AIRTRAN, JETBLUE AND WHOMEVER WANTS TO START A LOW COST CARRIER WITH DEEP POCKETS.

IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING YEAR IN 2006 FOR US I PREDICT. I HOPE I DO NOT HAVE TO JOIN THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE AGAIN, IT'S WAY TO PAINFUL!

I DO TRY TO EXPRESS MY OPINIONS TO SOME SENIOR GUYS I FLY WITH, HOWEVER. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THERE SEEMS TO BE AN ATTITUDE OF I TRUST MANAGEMENT WHOLEHEARTEDLY PREVALENT AMONG THE SENIOR GUYS. WHICH, IF I WAS GOING TO BET ON ANY HORSE, IT WOULD TRULY BE THE SWA MANAGEMENT TEAM. BUT A LOT OF THINGS THIS COMING YEAR MAY BE OUT OF THEIR CONTROL TOO.

NO THE SKY IS NOT FALLING! BUT I KNOW THE RABID DOGS ARE NIPPING AT OUR HEALS. THE COMPANY HAS COME AT US SEVERAL TIMES THIS PAST YEAR AND SAID THAT THEY CAN AFFORD TO GIVE US A RAISE, HOWEVER. THEY NEED THE PILOT GROUP TO BE MORE PRODUCITVE. I FLY WITH A $HIT LOAD OF GUYS THAT FLY 8 OR 9 DAYS A MONTH. THIS IS KILLING OUR PRODUCTIVITY SYSTEMWIDE. NOT TO SAY THAT OUR AVERAGE OF SEVENTY FLIGHT HOURS PER MONTH IS NOT SIGNIFICANT, HOWEVER. WHEN THE COMPANY YOU TRUST TELLS YOU TO BE MORE PRODUCTIVE. GET OFF YOUR A$$ AND FLY ONE EXTRA DAY A MONTH, BECAUSE IF YOU DON'T! PAY CUTS WIL BE COMING BOYS AND GIRLS.

I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE'LL PULL THROUGH WITHOUT A GREAT DEAL OF HARDSHIP. THOUGH, I AM NOT BETTING THE HOUSE THAT WE'LL KEEP OUR CURRENT PAY LEVELS.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

JIMEJET

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

While other LCC's continue to grow at a much faster pace, SWA just can't seem to find the sweet spot on the LF front. I see they have put the midwest on sale to try and get some marketshare back. In the last quarter the emphasis has been on maintaining price and it should show in their 2nd quarter profit numbers, but Gary and Co are now starting to worry about losing market.

Lowecur,

You've beat up SWA on BELF and load factors in months past. What do you make of these apples?


JetBlue Airways Reports October Traffic
Friday November 4, 9:39 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (NasdaqNM:JBLU - News) reported today that its traffic in October increased 14.4 percent from October 2004, on a capacity increase of 21.2 percent. Load factor for October 2005 was 78.4 percent, a decrease of 4.7 points from October 2004. JetBlue's completion factor was 96.8 percent and its on-time performance was 75.1 percent. Load factor and operating performance for the month were adversely impacted by Hurricane Wilma, which resulted in the cancellation of 285 flights.

 

[swaflyguy]

Actually SWA's BELF has DECREASED to 56-59%.

 

[apdsm]

While other LCC's continue to grow at a much faster pace, SWA just can't seem to find the sweet spot on the LF front. I see they have put the midwest on sale to try and get some marketshare back. In the last quarter the emphasis has been on maintaining price and it should show in their 2nd quarter profit numbers, but Gary and Co are now starting to worry about losing market.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050706/daw009.html?.v=17

Once again, Lowecur has personal knowledge of what "Gary and Co" are worrying about...

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

You've beat up SWA on BELF and load factors in months past. What do you make of these apples?


JetBlue Airways Reports October Traffic
Friday November 4, 9:39 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (NasdaqNM:JBLU - News) reported today that its traffic in October increased 14.4 percent from October 2004, on a capacity increase of 21.2 percent. Load factor for October 2005 was 78.4 percent, a decrease of 4.7 points from October 2004. JetBlue's completion factor was 96.8 percent and its on-time performance was 75.1 percent. Load factor and operating performance for the month were adversely impacted by Hurricane Wilma, which resulted in the cancellation of 285 flights.

Ya lost me there pally. What would you like me to say? I'm only a champion of Jetblue when the 190s have had a year in service, and we get a good cross-section of just what the a/c is doing for the CASM/RASM, which in my opinion will be sensational.

As Matt Damon once said: You like Apples? How do you like those apples?

 

[lowecur]

Actually SWA's BELF has DECREASED to 56-59%.

Really????? Care to do the math on that one so we all can see?

 

[kelbill]

Lowecur,

SWA has always put the Break Even Load Factor on the Captain's weather/Notam packet since I've been here. It is now, 56-59%, which is as low as I've seen it, at least in recent memory. Remember, fuel costs have gone down a little, we have raised fares a little, and we have been cutting waste and going new places. So I doubt any of us SWA folks can break it down officially, but I don't think the company low balls the number to make us feel good. Quite the contrary, they are always telling us to watch our back because the competition is right behind us.

I'll bite that SWA apple anyday.

 

[Juvat]

deleted.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Ya lost me there pally. What would you like me to say? I'm only a champion of Jetblue when the 190s have had a year in service, and we get a good cross-section of just what the a/c is doing for the CASM/RASM, which in my opinion will be sensational.

As Matt Damon once said: You like Apples? How do you like those apples?

Exactly. I'm glad you caught the Good Will Hunting reference.

Neeleman went out and claimed JetBlue would make money at $80/barrel. I know the crack spread shot up and jet fuel was $110+ but it has come back down. Instead of profit, JetBlue is forecasting a 4th quarter loss. A loss that, JetBlue says, will wipe out the profit from the previous 3 quarters.

I think that is telling. You are right the 190 will be sensational. But others are preparing to share in the scintillating extravanganza (profit) that will occur from 190 and 195 service. Jetlblue needs to hurry up and pull some profit out of them before the 100 seat fare wars begin.

I shoulda bought ERJ.

 

[SWA/FO]

let this thread die already....

 

[pilotyip]

lets throw in you don't need a college degree to be a pilot, keep the thread alive

 

[Mugs]

lets throw in you don't need a college degree to be a pilot, keep the thread alive

The accident rate of non-college educated pilots is significantly higher.

 

[Dizel8]

Yip, why are you talking about college degrees all the time, sad you did not get one?

 

[canyonblue]

Lowecur's **** continues slump

He may get some action in April.................2009uke:

 

[pilotyip]

Mugs where do you get your data to support your assertion?

 

[apdsm]

Mugs where do you get your data to support your assertion?

Didn't you mean insertion?

 

[Mugs]

Mugs where do you get your data to support your assertion?

Did it ever occur to you that you devote far too many posts to promoting your skills despite not having a degree? Get over it or get a degree. We all believe that you and others like you are perfectly capable and competent. Your obsession over trying to convince everybody in post after post has gone far overboard.

 

[HarleyGuy]

Oct LF up 3.8% from last year. 14% more people on 8% more capacity.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur's **** continues slump

He may get some action in April.................2009uke:

Am I in a slump?:blush: SWA has made a nice recovery on their LF's this last Q. This has been due to winning more head to head battles with AWA out West (probably due to lower fares). AWA's LF's have trended downward this Q.

The question that will be asked by the end of 2006 by myself and other industry experts , is can the SWA business model continue viability as the connecting dots fade and the capacity shrinkage levels off. While SWA bought add'l hedges, the previous costs kept the average down. These new hedges were bought at a higher premium and when it comes time to sell them in 2006 it just may be a wash or a loss if oil continues it's retreat back to $50 a barrel by late Spring and $40 a barrel by the end of 2006(my prediction).

Since Section 6 has been put off, I'm still looking for a big kickback from SWAPA to help the bottom line. My guess is they will give nothing and work without a contract for a few years just like the FA's, to show Gary and Herb that revenue is heading upwards. It's my opinion the vise will tighten as the legacy's begin to reassert themselves in many SWA markets by 2007. Or is that 2009???

I'm still looking for that order.
:beer:

 

[lowecur]

Actually SWA's BELF has DECREASED to 56-59%.

Here's the BELF for the 3rd Q - ACTUAL.

BELF=CASM/RPM

7.85/11.68= 67.2%

So it sounds to me like those numbers are bogus. Now maybe somebody can set me straight.

imp: :laugh:

 

[TexaSWA]

military guys cant fly airplanes

 

[Traderd]

military guys cant fly airplanes

But we can dam$ sure fly helicopters!

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Am I in a slump?:blush: SWA has made a nice recovery on their LF's this last Q. This has been due to winning more head to head battles with AWA out West (probably due to lower fares). AWA's LF's have trended downward this Q.

The question that will be asked by the end of 2006 by myself and other industry experts , is can the SWA business model continue viability as the connecting dots fade and the capacity shrinkage levels off. While SWA bought add'l hedges, the previous costs kept the average down. These new hedges were bought at a higher premium and when it comes time to sell them in 2006 it just may be a wash or a loss if oil continues it's retreat back to $50 a barrel by late Spring and $40 a barrel by the end of 2006(my prediction).

Since Section 6 has been put off, I'm still looking for a big kickback from SWAPA to help the bottom line. My guess is they will give nothing and work without a contract for a few years just like the FA's, to show Gary and Herb that revenue is heading upwards. It's my opinion the vise will tighten as the legacy's begin to reassert themselves in many SWA markets by 2007. Or is that 2009???

I'm still looking for that order.
:beer:

Lowecur,

Disregard my previous statement here. I was temporarily insane.

 

[ivauir]

But we can dam$ sure fly helicopters!

I donno man, I'm not sure helicopters can fly. Maybe it was just a bad dream ....

 

[smellthejeta]

To whomever is baggin' on PilotYIP about college, I'm almost certain that he has a Master's degree. In what, I don't know. Can I verify it? No. But, I'm almost certain that has made the rumor mill around here before.

 

[Smacktard]

BEING JUST A PUP AT SWA I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE WITH YOU.

IT IS VERY DISCERNING BEING....

JIMEJET

You're a pup at typing too! ALL CAPS IS HARD FOR THE EYE TO DISCERN. Reading comprehension is lowered when you have more than one sentence in ALL CAPS. If you want anyone to read your post, put it in normal text!!!!

 

[enigma]

Did it ever occur to you that you devote far too many posts to promoting your skills despite not having a degree? Get over it or get a degree. We all believe that you and others like you are perfectly capable and competent. Your obsession over trying to convince everybody in post after post has gone far overboard.

If memory serves, pilotyip is USNavy trained, college degree'd pilot. He doesn't say that one doesn't need a degree, only that one doesn't need a degree to succeed as a pilot.

enigma