SWA LF's continue slump

[skykid]

What good is market share if you lose money by having it? SWA doesn't believe in losing money just to have braggin rights on market share. I believe Delta has market share in ATL, at a loss. USAirways has it in PHL PIT & CLT -$$. Need I say more.

Great point. Another great point is the fact that SWA can make money (or not lose as much money) at such low load factors. An even better point is that you could easily argue that among pax flying pilots, SWA pilots are well compensated, and EVERYBODY else's compensation sucks.

 

[canyonblue]

Our load factors are still higher than they were in the late '90's early 2000, when everyone was making money like crazy. It's the yield, and Gary hasn't told me how well the yield has been lately, so I would not assume the worst yet.

 

[Publishers]

Let's talk about yield per market or the percentage of growth as compared with added markets. Anything that has to do with the production of a bottom line positive number.

Reminds me of a meeting I was once at. A bunch of CEO's in the same industry were asked what market share they were going to get. The numbers all added up to a cummlative 133% of the market. Someone was obviously wrong.

 

[lowecur]

What good is market share if you lose money by having it? SWA doesn't believe in losing money just to have braggin rights on market share. I believe Delta has market share in ATL, at a loss. USAirways has it in PHL PIT & CLT -$$$. Need I say more.

I noticed you didn't include AirTran, Jetblue, or AWA in those comparisons.

 

[lowecur]

Our load factors are still higher than they were in the late '90's early 2000, when everyone was making money like crazy. It's the yield, and Gary hasn't told me how well the yield has been lately, so I would not assume the worst yet.

SWAs bottom line will do just fine in the next two reporting quarters.......hell it's that money making time of year.

What is causing a buzz up in ol Herbie's head is the trend. Remember the trend is your friend when it's going up. When it's going down in a strong ridership market, then there is reason for concern.

 

[TrumanSparks]

Southwest flew 5.7 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in August, a 13.7 percent increase from the 5.0 billion RPMs flown in August 2004. Available seat miles (ASMs) increased 12.2 percent to 7.5 billion from the August 2004 level of 6.6 billion. The load factor for the month was 76.1 percent, compared to 75.1 percent for the same period last year.

For the eight months ending on August 31, Southwest flew 40.3 billion RPMs, compared to the 36.3 billion RPMs recorded for the same period of 2004?an increase of 11.2 percent. Available seat miles increased 12.0 percent to 56.4 billion from the 2004 level of 50.3 billion. The year-to-date load factor was 71.5 percent, compared to 72.1 percent for the same period last year.

 

[mdf]

UAL pulled down North America about 13% and increased international about the same - a smart move in my opinion. Post your Asian numbers so we can compare those.

That post your asian numbers thing is getting tired as lonly wacker himself.

But on a serious note. I really think it is about on time performance. Full airplanes all the time have been making it hard to turn airplanes in 20 minutes. Raise prices to bring down the lf a little, and help on time performance. Also make a few extra bucks for a couple of quarters.

 

[pilotyip]

Everyone better cancel their SWA interviews and pull out of the SWA pool. Things are getting really bad at SWA. Then all the prospectives that have confidence in SWA's future will go to the front of the line.

 

[wndshr]

stones and glass houses....

Great point. Another great point is the fact that SWA can make money (or not lose as much money) at such low load factors. An even better point is that you could easily argue that among pax flying pilots, SWA pilots are well compensated, and EVERYBODY else's compensation sucks.

SKYKID...be very careful about throwing stones in glass houses. SWA, B6, Airtran (fill in the name) are ALL extremely vulnerable in today's airline industry. SWA will not be profitable after the fuel hedging expires. I remember some of us at the legacy carriers who were pretty cocky after our contracts came out in the early 00's....we foolishly complained that SWA was keeping the bar low with their pay....whoa! now look at us....history has a very evil way of repeating itself, so enjoy the ride at the top and try to force yourself to be humble!

carry on!

 

[Gate 69]

I would rather speculate on the NL wildcard. Nationals take it on last day of the regular season.

 

[Jim Smyth]

Maybe we should go into banktrupcy like everyone else so we dont have to pay our full bills either! That should help the bottom line.

 

[cactuspilot]

Overheard at (brand x's) last big board meeting. " We realize we are loosing a little money on each flight, but not to worry, we will make it up in volume."

 

[jimEJet]

Wndshr!!

SKYKID...be very careful about throwing stones in glass houses. SWA, B6, Airtran (fill in the name) are ALL extremely vulnerable in today's airline industry. SWA will not be profitable after the fuel hedging expires. I remember some of us at the legacy carriers who were pretty cocky after our contracts came out in the early 00's....we foolishly complained that SWA was keeping the bar low with their pay....whoa! now look at us....history has a very evil way of repeating itself, so enjoy the ride at the top and try to force yourself to be humble!

carry on!

BEING JUST A PUP AT SWA I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE WITH YOU.

IT IS VERY DISCERNING BEING AT THE TOP PAY RANGE OF 737 OPERATORS.

I AM NOT NEW TO AIRLINE FLYING AND AM VERY VERY NERVOUS BEING HERE AT SWA. DON'T GET ME WRONG, I FEEL BLESSED TO BE HERE WITH ALL THE OTHER GREAT PILOTS THAT ARE UNEMPLOYED, HOWEVER. I REALIZE OUR RIDE HERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

LISTEN, WE WERE LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET A PAY RAISE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH, THOUGH, I BELIEVE WILL WILL BE GIVING IT BACK NEXT YEAR PLUS ANOTHER 15%. JUST MY HUMBLE OPINION.

WE'LL HAVE TO IN ORDER TO COMPETE WITH ALL THOSE BANKRUPT LEGACIES. I AM WORKING AS MUCH AS I CAN. (A TRUE FLYING WHORE.) I WANT TO WORK FOR MY CURRENT PAY LEVEL AS MUCH AS I CAN BECAUSE I KNOW NEXT YEAR I MAY BE DOING IT FOR 75-80 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

NOW, I KNOW ALL YOU SWA TYPES MAY THINK I AM BEING WAAAAAY TO PESIMISTIC, HOWEVER.

BEEN THERE DONE THAT. I HAVE WORKED FOR THREE AIRLINES. I WENT ON STRIKE AND HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATED BEFORE. I KNOW THAT OUR MANAGEMENT TEAM IS ONE OF THE BEST BUT WHEN OUR CEO SAYS; "NO AIRLINE WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN PROFITABLE AT MORE THAN $60 PER BARRELL." THAT RINGS A LOT OF BELLS FOR ME! HOW ABOUT YOU MY BREATHREN?

THEY WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH, TED, SONG, USAIR/AMWEST, INDEPENDENCE, AIRTRAN, JETBLUE AND WHOMEVER WANTS TO START A LOW COST CARRIER WITH DEEP POCKETS.

IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING YEAR IN 2006 FOR US I PREDICT. I HOPE I DO NOT HAVE TO JOIN THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE AGAIN, IT'S WAY TO PAINFUL!

I DO TRY TO EXPRESS MY OPINIONS TO SOME SENIOR GUYS I FLY WITH, HOWEVER. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THERE SEEMS TO BE AN ATTITUDE OF I TRUST MANAGEMENT WHOLEHEARTEDLY PREVALENT AMONG THE SENIOR GUYS. WHICH, IF I WAS GOING TO BET ON ANY HORSE, IT WOULD TRULY BE THE SWA MANAGEMENT TEAM. BUT A LOT OF THINGS THIS COMING YEAR MAY BE OUT OF THEIR CONTROL TOO.

NO THE SKY IS NOT FALLING! BUT I KNOW THE RABID DOGS ARE NIPPING AT OUR HEALS. THE COMPANY HAS COME AT US SEVERAL TIMES THIS PAST YEAR AND SAID THAT THEY CAN AFFORD TO GIVE US A RAISE, HOWEVER. THEY NEED THE PILOT GROUP TO BE MORE PRODUCITVE. I FLY WITH A $HIT LOAD OF GUYS THAT FLY 8 OR 9 DAYS A MONTH. THIS IS KILLING OUR PRODUCTIVITY SYSTEMWIDE. NOT TO SAY THAT OUR AVERAGE OF SEVENTY FLIGHT HOURS PER MONTH IS NOT SIGNIFICANT, HOWEVER. WHEN THE COMPANY YOU TRUST TELLS YOU TO BE MORE PRODUCTIVE. GET OFF YOUR A$$ AND FLY ONE EXTRA DAY A MONTH, BECAUSE IF YOU DON'T! PAY CUTS WIL BE COMING BOYS AND GIRLS.

I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE'LL PULL THROUGH WITHOUT A GREAT DEAL OF HARDSHIP. THOUGH, I AM NOT BETTING THE HOUSE THAT WE'LL KEEP OUR CURRENT PAY LEVELS.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

JIMEJET

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

While other LCC's continue to grow at a much faster pace, SWA just can't seem to find the sweet spot on the LF front. I see they have put the midwest on sale to try and get some marketshare back. In the last quarter the emphasis has been on maintaining price and it should show in their 2nd quarter profit numbers, but Gary and Co are now starting to worry about losing market.

Lowecur,

You've beat up SWA on BELF and load factors in months past. What do you make of these apples?


JetBlue Airways Reports October Traffic
Friday November 4, 9:39 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (NasdaqNM:JBLU - News) reported today that its traffic in October increased 14.4 percent from October 2004, on a capacity increase of 21.2 percent. Load factor for October 2005 was 78.4 percent, a decrease of 4.7 points from October 2004. JetBlue's completion factor was 96.8 percent and its on-time performance was 75.1 percent. Load factor and operating performance for the month were adversely impacted by Hurricane Wilma, which resulted in the cancellation of 285 flights.

 

[swaflyguy]

Actually SWA's BELF has DECREASED to 56-59%.

 

[apdsm]

While other LCC's continue to grow at a much faster pace, SWA just can't seem to find the sweet spot on the LF front. I see they have put the midwest on sale to try and get some marketshare back. In the last quarter the emphasis has been on maintaining price and it should show in their 2nd quarter profit numbers, but Gary and Co are now starting to worry about losing market.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050706/daw009.html?.v=17

Once again, Lowecur has personal knowledge of what "Gary and Co" are worrying about...

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

You've beat up SWA on BELF and load factors in months past. What do you make of these apples?


JetBlue Airways Reports October Traffic
Friday November 4, 9:39 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (NasdaqNM:JBLU - News) reported today that its traffic in October increased 14.4 percent from October 2004, on a capacity increase of 21.2 percent. Load factor for October 2005 was 78.4 percent, a decrease of 4.7 points from October 2004. JetBlue's completion factor was 96.8 percent and its on-time performance was 75.1 percent. Load factor and operating performance for the month were adversely impacted by Hurricane Wilma, which resulted in the cancellation of 285 flights.

Ya lost me there pally. What would you like me to say? I'm only a champion of Jetblue when the 190s have had a year in service, and we get a good cross-section of just what the a/c is doing for the CASM/RASM, which in my opinion will be sensational.

As Matt Damon once said: You like Apples? How do you like those apples?

 

[lowecur]

Actually SWA's BELF has DECREASED to 56-59%.

Really????? Care to do the math on that one so we all can see?

 

[kelbill]

Lowecur,

SWA has always put the Break Even Load Factor on the Captain's weather/Notam packet since I've been here. It is now, 56-59%, which is as low as I've seen it, at least in recent memory. Remember, fuel costs have gone down a little, we have raised fares a little, and we have been cutting waste and going new places. So I doubt any of us SWA folks can break it down officially, but I don't think the company low balls the number to make us feel good. Quite the contrary, they are always telling us to watch our back because the competition is right behind us.

I'll bite that SWA apple anyday.

 

[Juvat]

deleted.