SWA drops other shoe?

[Quimby]

Yeah, I'll bet a correction of 50% in the stock price would make you guys whoop for joy.

imp:​

back to your cubicle, office boy.:smash:

and quit stealing staplers.......

 

[ivauir]

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

Support? Wide bodies have inherently lower CASM (more seats - many of the same fixed costs). Also, 1 cent is about 15% difference - pretty significant. Our costs are low and the pressure is on to lower them ... who else has that trend? (outside of bankruptcy). All of the legacies are going to experience significant labor pressure (rightfully so) and the other LCCs have aging fleets and labor forces to contend with - SWA is stable on both fronts.

There are plenty of things for SWA folks to worry about - but the legacies competing with us on cost is not one of them (until the next round of bankruptcies - which I hope never comes).

Do any of you SWA bashers remember when the pundits thought the fuel hedging program was a waste on money? I do. Some of you act like SWA has never slowed growth before or seen hard times. Someday we'll remember when the stock was languishing at 14 and we'll wish we bought more. Especially lowecur... he'll be telling all of the insurance dudes at the convention (I picture a lot of "van by the river" stories) that he almost made the big time ... if only he'd shorted Embrar and bought LUV ...

 

[lowecur]

How can you tell when airline mgt is lost?

When reactive decisions begin to overtake proactive. Just ask David Neeleman.

imp:​

 

[SWA/FO]

I think he was referring to profit growth of 15 percent a year that is expected to erode .

I look for growth forcast to be reduced to single digits in the near future. Another, I told you so....by lowecur.

Looks like he typed "growth" to me.

Hey SWA/FO I thought I heard you attended upgrade... Shouldn't it be SWA/CAPT? If so congrats...

not yet, my brother..... but soon they keep telling me.

The only frickin morons I see is a SWAPA pilot trying to destroy the profession with this age 65 crap.

ALPA too..... "destroy the profession" GMAFB. ALPA has done a fine job of this within the last 5-8 years. SWAPA # 1

 

[Red Baron]

Actually, Airtran's nonfuel CASM is lower than Southwest and was down 5% Q1 2007 vs Q1 2006 while Southwest was up about 1.5% year over year. And with our great negotiating committee bringing us such a great TA, Airtran's CASM won't be going up in the near term due to pilot pay.


I am glad that your great negotiating committee brought you a great TA. We all want good pay as pilots. It is ironic though that you are proud that your CASM won't be going up due to pilot pay. We are proud of our pay here. No regrets whatsoever. We can manage costs without taking it away from the hard-working pilot group.

Happy Flying,

RB

 

[Flycatcher99]

Yes SWA is a penny lower but the legacies operate expensive wide bodies flying an international route structure with higher distribution costs associated with international travel. SWA's domestic B737 operation does not have those expenses and is just 1 cent lower in CASM.

Plus the revenues off a wide body far exceed that possible from a small narrow body so while the legacies have a 1 cent higher CASM they have a much greater RASM.

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

SWA costs are up. The question is how will SWA control those costs without double digit growth? Zero to single digit growth won't control costs.

Actually, legacies' costs are down, but only temporarily. Do you really think the legacies will stay where they are?? Right now they're getting their cake and eating it too. Revenues are up, labor costs are ridiculously and inaccurately low. SWA's labor is only high right now with respect to where everyone else is, which is to say that SWA's labor costs should really be compared with what will happen in the next few years at AA, USAir, Delta, NWA, etc.

It's easy to rip on SWA's costs when everyone else is enjoying great revenues at raped-labor prices. Things will even out, and if they don't at certain carriers, we'll all be watching some great strike action.

 

[maxblast72]

Sorry, I guess you couldn't see the sarcasm in the initial post on our "great" TA. No chance of that piece of crap passing with our Q1 2007 results and projected 2007 and 2008 profits (we went from an operational loss of 13 million Q1 2006 to an operating profit of 11 million Q1 2007 as Delta rationalized their domestic capacity to come out of bankruptcy). Expectations were higher than CASM neutral for most of our pilots.

We aren't as productive and effecient (more flying with more days off) as Southwest pilots yet but are trying to get there with the new contract. Hopefully the pay will reflect that we are the second hardest working pilot group behind you guys.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

Do you think the legacy CASMs will remain this low going forward? I don't.

That's the point isn't it? If the CASM is going up for all airlines we will see capacity drop off. The only reason SW did not share in the fortunes of the legacies after 911/economy slow down, is because the cost structure at SW was low enough to take the hit. Remember, prior to 911 SW was making over a billion dollars in operational profit with a fleet only half the size it is now and about the same number of employees.

READ...ALL AIRLINES WILL TAKE A HIT IN THE COMING YEARS. The airline that will win at the end of the day, is the one that can park 100's of planes at a whim. It doesn't matter if SW still has a $10 fare, the costs associated with taking a vacation is not dependent on air fare price alone. Tickets right now are extremely cheap and still demand is softening.

 

[BoilerUP]

Tickets right now are extremely cheap and still demand is softening.

Wouldn't know demand is softening by all the full flights I'm flying on small jets for the worst performing major carrier in the United States...

 

[Charlie Brown]

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s.
• Take the pilot rates down 20%
• Take the FA pay down 20%
• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%
• go assigned seating

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

I wasn't going to respond to this, but I just can't help it. I usually find some of your observations interesting at the least, and I dare say some things you have said in the past almost make sense. However I now think that little smoking man icon may be you with a crack pipe.

Why would a company want to buy a smaller airplane, thereby reducing the potential for profit (read: seats) when they own larger frames, with the parts, training, and equipment already in place? Times will not always be this bad.

SWA has already explored the concept of assigned seating. It would increase the turn-around times, and we all know an airplane ain't making any $$$ sitting at a gate looking pretty. In addition to that fact, all pax (customers) indicated they were in favor of keeping open seating. I think if anything, this would cost money rather than save it.

As for cutting all pay 20%, where did you get this number? Not that it really matters though, because there are plenty of prime examples of how trying to cut costs on the backs of your employees just doesn't work.

 

[IronCityBlue]

do What?

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s

So, buy significantly higher CASM planes (starting a second fleet type in the process) that just so happen to be plagued with mx issues, from a supplier who can't handle its delivery commitments already on the books, and dump many of their really reliable, lower CASM money makers. :laugh: Well I guess since you own shares...uh, I mean, since that has worked so incredibly well for JetBlue thus far, I can see why you think it would "plug and play" at SWA.

• Take the pilot rates down 20%

I'm sure that if faced with saving their company from liquidating the SW pilots would make the painful decision to lower their pay by that ammount, but that's not the case now, is it? It seems as though you are salivating in typical managerial style about the savings you could achieve by reducing pay by an arbitrary ammount, apply that savings to the bottom line to boost your short term stock price, go running to the BOD to take credit for what you did, negotiate a massive retention bonus for yourself in the form of more money than your great grandchildren could ever spend and head for the hills.

• Take the FA pay down 20%

Ya there ya go, that'll get the ship back on track.

• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%

Hey Frank, you wanna take this one? But seriouslly, do you really think its as simple as "reduce pay 20%, apply savings to bottom line, enjoy profits?" Even if that ammount of labor pay helped bring back massive profit margins, those profits would forever be a reminder to the workers who gave up the pay (or had it taken from them by millionaire managers) just exactly where the money for that 40 year old brandy and Pebble Beach greens fees came from.

Mister, I knew Sir Isaac Newton. I studied physics with Sir Isaac Newton. You sir, are no Sir Isaac Newton. Pass that legacy dutchie you're pinching to your left hand side and think for just a moment about the equal and opposite reaction from labor that would result from your little "looks dandy on paper!" labor cost reduction "final solution". Maybe labor suddenly gets 20% less productive. Maybe they call in sick 20% more. Stop caring 20, 30, 50% as much. Stop doing 80% as many favors for the company. What? You mean you didn't take that into consideration and you've already spent the money, oh so sorry?

• go assigned seating

Now there's a good idea! Its hard to immagine why such a rookie management team has continued to overlook that all these decades. This isn't cold fusion. They've looked extensively at this. The day it makes them more money they will go assigned seating. Right now that day has not arrived. Move along now, nothing to see here.

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

The SWA business model is still kicking tail and taking names. Its so easy a caveman could do it. They certainly face challenges going forward (good thing no one else does, phew!) and profit margins will probably not be as high as in years past, especially as a company that size gets bigger. That's almost always the case. That's normal and does not call for the devistating buisness plan going forward that you've advocated. Rest assured though, they can and will adapt to survive.

 

[lowecur]

The SWA business model is still kicking tail and taking names. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Its so easy a caveman could do it. The cavemen are extinct because they got lost in the evolution shuffle. The handwriting is on the cave wall, but the only one that sees it is SWA mgt. Yeah, Gary would be amenable to changing the business model if he had the support of the employee groups. Instead they will ride the ship to the bottom like all the employee groups before them. You see, no matter how good mgt is to these hackers, they always try to shift the blame on their backs. They certainly face challenges going forward (good thing no one else does, phew!) and profit margins will probably not be as high as in years past, especially as a company that size gets bigger. Ya think so? That's almost always the case. That's normal and does not call for the devistating buisness plan going forward that you've advocated. Rest assured though, they can and will adapt to survive.

If they get to the point AMR did before employees decide to take a haircut, divest themselves of the 733 and add the 175 (same pay scale), stop subsidizing unprofitable routes with TX/Left Coast piggybank.....then they face the possibility of losing it all. Only saving grace is the legacy's will implode before they do.

imp:​

 

[mdf]

All this recent SWA hype! I was going to let it go, but here goes. It really is amateur night when Lowercur, and YPF come out. Wall street goes in little cycles of creating entry, and exit points in the markets for themselves. All the recent negative SWA talk is just one of those. I would like to see who's buying. They are really pushing the LBO angle, and believe me no one want's to be left out if that goes down. The last 500 million dollar stock buyback by GK really put a kink in their hose, and now it's payback time. Their going to try, and push the stock lower to make the LBO numbers look better. They pumped and dumped Jet Blue, made some money on UAUA, and are working on NWA, and Delta as we speak. They are really going to have some fun with the Skybus thing too. There never seems to be a shortage of people willing to put money in this business. The $65/hr check airman of tommorow aren't going to make it better either. Some of you experts on this board want to talk about fundamentals. That's all great, and I am really impressed, but none of the Wall Street clowns care about any of that stuff. That's just stuff they can throw out to sell their case. They are marketers, perception is reality. You wan't to know what a companies worth? Add up what they have, and what you can get for it in the open market. Some of guys with hard on's for SWA like to use this stuff to get people riled up. This is just the fleecing of the average american once again, like has gone on for years. That includes you, so keep smiling they love you on Wall Street!

 

[lowecur]

All this recent SWA hype! I was going to let it go, but here goes. It really is amateur night when Lowercur, and YPF come out. Wall street goes in little cycles of creating entry, and exit points in the markets for themselves. All the recent negative SWA talk is just one of those. I would like to see who's buying. They are really pushing the LBO angle, and believe me no one want's to be left out if that goes down. The last 500 million dollar stock buyback by GK really put a kink in their hose, and now it's payback time. Their going to try, and push the stock lower to make the LBO numbers look better. They pumped and dumped Jet Blue, made some money on UAUA, and are working on NWA, and Delta as we speak. They are really going to have some fun with the Skybus thing too. There never seems to be a shortage of people willing to put money in this business. The $65/hr check airman of tommorow aren't going to make it better either. Some of you experts on this board want to talk about fundamentals. That's all great, and I am really impressed, but none of the Wall Street clowns care about any of that stuff. That's just stuff they can throw out to sell their case. They are marketers, perception is reality. You wan't to know what a companies worth? Add up what they have, and what you can get for it in the open market. Some of guys with hard on's for SWA like to use this stuff to get people riled up. This is just the fleecing of the average american once again, like has gone on for years. That includes you, so keep smiling they love you on Wall Street!

Thank you PT Barnum!

I have just jumped out of my first story bedroom. I landed on the Travelocity Gnome, and we both asked each other if we were going to die? Then I realized the whole world is a stage and we are just it's players....or something like that.

imp:​

 

[Lear70]

I am glad that your great negotiating committee brought you a great TA. We all want good pay as pilots. It is ironic though that you are proud that your CASM won't be going up due to pilot pay. We are proud of our pay here. No regrets whatsoever. We can manage costs without taking it away from the hard-working pilot group.

Happy Flying,

RB

BWAAAAAHAHAHAHHAHA!

I'm sorry, that was funny...

Now where's my beer?

Seriously, not bashing SWA pilots AT ALL, your pilot pay is in a league our NC won't hope to match anytime soon. Just needed a good laugh after studying this T.A. this afternoon.

My 727 non-flexing friend had a healthy dose of sarcasm in his earlier post...