SWA drops other shoe?

[lowecur]

Looks like Gary is strongly considering hitting the brakes on growth. This will mean.....as new planes come onboard......older ones will be sold on the backside. Sounds like he is being pressured to get a handle on things since the downgrade last week. I look for growth forcast to be reduced to single digits in the near future. Another, I told you so....by lowecur.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...6-05_15-59-07_N05278618&type=comktNews&rpc=44

imp:​

 

[328dude]

*yawn*

 

[jparks]

328,
your avatar is so funny!

 

[ironspud]

I still think the easties should have been stapled.

 

[SWA/FO]

I look for growth forcast to be reduced to single digits in the near future.

Growth is already in the single digits you tool. 8% is a single digit. :cartman:

 

[fugghedabowdit]

Nothing new here. Gary said months ago that if revenue was still weak into the third quarter, growth would slow.

 

[Lear70]

Growth is already in the single digits you tool. 8% is a single digit. :cartman:

ROFLMFAO!!!

I don't care WHO you are... that's funny.

 

[lowecur]

Growth is already in the single digits you drill 8% is a single digit. :cartman:

In the famous words of Travis Bickle: You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Then who the hell else are you talking... you talking to me? Well I'm the only one here. Who the f do you think you're talking to?

Testy, aren't we? Must have hit a nerve. Lets take it down to 0%.....one 737G in the front door and one 733 out the back. As the 15% margin forecast will lag, then Gary will take growth to 0%.

The problem with this scenerio is the Gordon Bethune fixation that SWA will fall on it's face without a sustainable growth of 10% per year. Ouch!

imp:​

 

[Skaff]

lowecur,
Why did you change his quote from "you tool" to "you drill"?

 

[ivauir]

Looks like Gary is strongly considering hitting the brakes on growth. This will mean.....as new planes come onboard......And hasn't your favorite airline been selling airplanes for quite some time now? older ones will be sold on the backside. Sounds like he is being pressured to get a handle on things since the downgrade last week. I look for growth forcast to be reduced to single digits in the near future. The drop from 8% to single digits will really hurt, Another, I told you so....by lowecur. It is not an I told you so yet ... and by my count it would be your first.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...6-05_15-59-07_N05278618&type=comktNews&rpc=44

imp:​

Has anyone noticed that SWA is currently negotiating a pilot contract? I wonder how the head shed could get the pilots to lower their expectations?

BTW I'm not saying there is no way we will slow growth, everything is on the table. GK is discussing this with the same language he describes going international and assigned seats. Stagnation would stink, but we could handle it better than any other LCC.

 

[scoreboard]

Another, I told you so....by lowecur.

Uh, just like your JB and RJ told you so?

 

[JayhawkDude]

<Sigh>

None of this would have happened if we had just bought those Embraers when Lowecur told us to a couple of years back...

 

[SWA/FO]

Seems to be Southwest season lately with the investment types... They seem to be hangin on every word said by Gary Kelly.

Reminds me of the questions they throw at professional athletes (some very smart people) asking the same question several times until they get the response they are looking for, then they run with it - full page article. Welcome to the spin zone. Bobby Knight is great at fighting this style of reporting.

 

[lowecur]

lowecur,
Why did you change his quote from "you tool" to "you drill"?

Cuz I'm the dentist...and I hit a nerve.

imp:​

 

[lowecur]

Uh, just like your JB and RJ told you so?

Exactly!

imp:

 

[lowecur]

Has anyone noticed that SWA is currently negotiating a pilot contract? No....since when? I wonder how the head shed could get the pilots to lower their expectations? Won't happen...too many transfers from the legacys that know how to stick it to mgt.

BTW I'm not saying there is no way we will slow growth, everything is on the table. GK is discussing this with the same language he describes going international and assigned seats. Stagnation would stink, but we could handle it better than any other LCC.

Yeah, I'll bet a correction of 50% in the stock price would make you guys whoop for joy.

imp:​

 

[lowecur]

None of this would have happened if we had just bought those Embraers when Lowecur told us to a couple of years back...

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s.
• Take the pilot rates down 20%
• Take the FA pay down 20%
• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%
• go assigned seating

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

 

[GuppyWN]

Our CASM minus fuel is a full cent lower than every legacy and most LCC's out there.

If we pay the same money for gas than you do we still beat you by a penny. I'd worry about your own house.

Gup

 

[SWA/FO]

No....since when?

Get that drill out of your a$$......... since January - you tool!
:cartman: (Lowertool picture)

http://www.swapa.org/

 

[737ski]

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s.
• Take the pilot rates down 20%
• Take the FA pay down 20%
• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%
• go assigned seating

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

That's why you spend your time on FI.com and don't run (ruin) an airline... Keep rubbing that crystal ball (if that's what you call it...).

 

[ultrarunner]

It's great that the SWA chest-thumpers parade about each quarter about profits, fuel hedges, plane orders, new markets, etc...and all that's good....

...and in fact I think someone said "who cares where the profit comes from...it's a profit..."

...well, YOUR investors care. And they DO CARE when the stock has been in the toilet for extended periods of time...they can get darn right testy about it actually....then you get downgraded, then the stock dumps more....etc....

...it's a vicious cycle...

Today you trade at 14...and tomorrow or the next day or the next you can be at 10 bucks or less before you know it.

The pressure to perform for your investors and for wall street is incredible beyond belief, since an airline with a market cap of, say, 11 billion, could easily be 5 billion tomorrow, and yes, that could even happen to LUV.

Stay tuned.

 

[Max Powers]

I think he was referring to profit growth of 15 percent a year that is expected to erode .

Growth is already in the single digits you tool. 8% is a single digit. :cartman:

 

[maxblast72]

Quote by GuppyWN

"Our CASM minus fuel is a full cent lower than every legacy and most LCC's out there."


Actually, Airtran's nonfuel CASM is lower than Southwest and was down 5% Q1 2007 vs Q1 2006 while Southwest was up about 1.5% year over year. And with our great negotiating committee bringing us such a great TA, Airtran's CASM won't be going up in the near term due to pilot pay.

Southwest is still has the strongest balance sheet out there but has lost the majority of their nonfuel CASM advantage over the last 3-5 years.

The next five years should be interesting.

 

[CF34-3B1]

That's why we're building the refinery........

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Our CASM minus fuel is a full cent lower than every legacy and most LCC's out there.

Yes SWA is a penny lower but the legacies operate expensive wide bodies flying an international route structure with higher distribution costs associated with international travel. SWA's domestic B737 operation does not have those expenses and is just 1 cent lower in CASM.

Plus the revenues off a wide body far exceed that possible from a small narrow body so while the legacies have a 1 cent higher CASM they have a much greater RASM.

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

SWA costs are up. The question is how will SWA control those costs without double digit growth? Zero to single digit growth won't control costs.

 

[canyonblue]

Hey, here's an idea! How about all you morons hope that Southwest keeps on plugging along so there is no downturn in growth. Only way you guys will ever see a future pay raise is if SWA can maintain their own and raise it more. Unbelievable, no wonder pilot are such frickin morons, hoping that one of the highest paying pilot groups out there actually loses money.

 

[xanderman]

capt?

Growth is already in the single digits you tool. 8% is a single digit. :cartman:

Hey SWA/FO I thought I heard you attended upgrade... Shouldn't it be SWA/CAPT? If so congrats...

Andy

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Only way you guys will ever see a future pay raise is if SWA can maintain their own and raise it more.

Unbelievable, no wonder pilot are such frickin morons.......

SWA pilots won't be the highest paid after you flood your ranks with all your over 60 geezers. You'all will be taking a pay cuts to keep from furloughing.

The only frickin morons I see is a SWAPA pilot trying to destroy the profession with this age 65 crap.

SWAPA pilots with millionaire greed wanting peanuts till you can collect your SS shafting everyone below full captain is what I call a frickin moron.

 

[spinup]

Hey, here's an idea! How about all you morons hope that Southwest keeps on plugging along so there is no downturn in growth. Only way you guys will ever see a future pay raise is if SWA can maintain their own and raise it more. Unbelievable, no wonder pilot are such frickin morons, hoping that one of the highest paying pilot groups out there actually loses money.

Kidding right? Not everybody has a desire to have what you have...

 

[StopNTSing]

Yes SWA is a penny lower but the legacies operate expensive wide bodies flying an international route structure with higher distribution costs associated with international travel. SWA's domestic B737 operation does not have those expenses and is just 1 cent lower in CASM.

Plus the revenues off a wide body far exceed that possible from a small narrow body so while the legacies have a 1 cent higher CASM they have a much greater RASM.

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

SWA costs are up. The question is how will SWA control those costs without double digit growth? Zero to single digit growth won't control costs.

Do you think the legacy CASMs will remain this low going forward? I don't.