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SWA beats estimates!!

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jp1030

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2003
Posts
84
Southwest Airlines has added a news release to its Investor Relations website.

Title: Southwest Airlines Reports First Quarter Earnings Of $76 Million; Diluted Earnings Per Share Of $.09 Date: 4/14/2005 6:40:00 AM

For a complete listing of our News Releases, please click here

DALLAS, April 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV)today reported first quarter 2005 net income of $76 million, or $.09 perdiluted share, compared to $26 million for first quarter 2004, or $.03 perdiluted share. These first quarter 2005 results compare favorably to theFirst Call mean estimate of $.05 per diluted share. Gary C. Kelly, CEO, stated: "Considering the many challenges our industrycontinues to face, we are grateful to report first quarter 2005 earnings of$76 million. Our rigorous focus on cost reduction and successful fuel hedgingprogram shielded us from record high energy prices and enabled us to reportour 56th consecutive quarter of profitability. For first quarter 2005, wewere 86 percent hedged, which reduced fuel and oil expense by $155 million.In addition, we recorded $27 million in "other gains" in accordance withStatement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 133 (SFAS 133), 'Accounting forDerivative Instruments and Hedging Activities.' "We are 83 percent hedged for second quarter 2005 with crude oil pricescapped at $26 per barrel. Based on current market conditions, we expect ourjet fuel costs per gallon for second quarter 2005 to exceed first quarter2005's 90.3 cents. We remain 85 percent hedged for second half 2005 at $26per barrel; 65 percent in 2006 at $32 per barrel; over 45 percent in 2007 at$31 per barrel; 30 percent in 2008 at $33 per barrel; and over 25 percent in2009 at $35 per barrel. "Excluding fuel, our unit costs declined 3.8 percent. This superbperformance reflected a tremendous effort by our Employees, and they continueto work hard to improve productivity throughout our Company. Based on recentcost trends, we do not expect second quarter 2005 unit costs, excluding fuel,to significantly exceed first quarter 2005's excellent performance of 6.32cents. "Our unit revenue improved 1.9 percent as we benefited from significantincreases in freight and other revenues and a strong March passenger revenueperformance. Following fourth quarter 2004 trends, we started the year withweak revenue yields. March, however, was positively impacted by the timing ofthe Easter holiday, which led to a record March load factor performance of73.7 percent. March also benefited from our codeshare with ATA at ChicagoMidway (initiated in February), competitive capacity reductions in certainmarkets, and modest fare increases. Although bookings are satisfactory forMay and June, the Easter holiday timing is negatively impacting April trafficand load factors. At this juncture, it appears likely second quarter 2005load factors will decline relative to last year's record levels, and it is,therefore, difficult to predict whether or not we will have favorable year-over-year passenger unit revenue comparisons in second quarter 2005. "While we are not immune to the challenging industry revenue environmentand glut of capacity, we are well positioned for growth and will continue toexplore longterm profitable market opportunities. During first quarter 2005,we exercised seven Boeing 737-700 options for 2006 delivery, bringing our 2006firm orders to 33, with one 2006 option remaining, for a planned annualavailable seat mile growth of approximately seven percent. "We look forward to serving Pittsburgh, beginning May 4, 2005, with atotal of ten daily nonstop departures to four cities: Philadelphia, ChicagoMidway, Las Vegas, and Orlando. We are also excited about our Chicago Midwaygrowth plans and will be at 192 Midway departures by July 5, 2005." Southwest will discuss its first quarter 2005 results on a conference callat 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time today. A live broadcast of the conference callwill be available athttp://www.southwest.com/jp/luvhome.shtml?src=IR_earn_041405. Operating Results Total operating revenues for first quarter 2005 increased 12.1 percent to$1.66 billion, compared to $1.48 billion for first quarter 2004. Operatingincome was $106 million compared to $46 million in first quarter 2004.Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 12.3 percent in first quarter 2005,as compared to a 10.1 percent increase in available seat miles (ASMs),resulting in a 1.2 point increase in load factor to 65.4 percent. .
 
Still a loss on the operations side. $27M balance sheet accounting adjustment, plus Easter falling at the end of March skewed the numbers. Would have been in line with estimates had these two events not shaped the final numbers.
 
You are right!

It's just too bad that those making estimates had no idea when Easter was going to fall. Too bad that they dont have you helping them with one of those calender things. Even I get those from my insurance guys a few times a year.
 
Yeah, mighty sneaky of them to move Easter without telling the analysts...

Did the guys who come up with the estimates not realize which quarter Easter is in this year??? GMAB!
 
Loser curve,

Why do you think we always make money? It's because our management is proactive and think outside the box. Hell, who else would have moved Easter to tripple profits? Pretty darn smart.
 
The SEC warned SWA not to be moving the holidays around. GK made a deal with the Easter Bunny anyway. What a bold move.

Rumor has it that SWA managers have a secret meeting with Santa this fall.
 
The big question

Will SWA ever make money on operations anytime soon? You can whistle all you want past the graveyard, but eventually the stockprice will reflect the inherent risk.

As for the analcyst lack of good judgement as far as Easter revenue, it will be reflected in most of the airlines as quarterly reports are filed. Most of the airlines screwed pax royally as junk fares were impossible to find as low ticket buckets were eliminated. Read closely Jim Jones followers: "Although bookings are satisfactory for May and June, the Easter holiday timing is negatively impacting April traffic and load factors. At this juncture, it appears likely second quarter 2005 load factors will decline relative to last year's record levels, and it is,therefore, difficult to predict whether or not we will have favorable year-over-year passenger unit revenue comparisons in second quarter 2005."

FF program was just cut in half as no more double bonus' for booking on line. Now it will take 8 trips for a free one instead of 4. This will cost SWA future bookings as the "cheapo" pax will look to AWA for a better deal.

With the apparent possible merger of two of SWA biggest targets with the help of GECAS, this has to have Mr. Kelly pulling his hair out. AWA/UAIR were both seen as "easy pick'ns" for liquidation in the next few years with Gary figuring SWA would just step "larger" into PHL, PHX, LAS, and PIT.

Time to refocus.:)
 

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