Time to look at the bright side, as FI - while entertaining for some and cathartic for others - has become pretty petty. Let’s take Ty and Lear, who will be, if this passes, SWA pilots. For these assumptions, I assume no growth and will look at what things will be like until the integration is complete. For pay, I’ll compare 2010 (pre-acquisition), 2011 (post-acquisition), 2012-2014 (transition) and 2015 (integrated SWA). Somewhere during this time frame Section 6 will occur, which may rival this SLI for toxic and vomit like excess. Using the AT CBA’s, SWA CBA, SWA SL10 and AT LOA, I assume the following:
1. 2010/2011 Minimum Monthly Guarantee (MMG) is 70; assuming 78 since actual is probably be higher.
2. 2012-2014 MMG is 76, assuming 78 like above. SWA TFP guarantee is 88, assuming 105 is average per SWAPA NC and contract gurus.
3. No per diem calculations.
4. 2010/2011 retirement: 10.5% B fund and $16,500 IRS max 401k contribution.
5. 2012-2015 retirement: $16,500 IRS max 401k contribution, 9.3% match, 4.8% profit sharing (5yr AVG) per last SWAPA Reporting Point.
6. SWA 401k match limit is $25,000 ($268,817 pay needed): per IRS $245,000 is compensation limit. Top Hat rules, limits and options are better explained in another thread; perhaps one of the smart guys like Andy could start one of these – l can send him our data to analyze. Regardless of the IRS rules, annual potential retirement is labeled below as APR.
7. 50% CAPT and FO. 7,834 total pilots.
8. Per SL10, 330 B737 CAPT seats go to SWA by September 2014 while 222 SWA and 26 AT CAPT’s retire (248 total) along with 21 SWA and 9 AT FO’s (30 total) by January 1, 2015. Too lazy to see where these are on the list. No growth list until 2015 unless GK has a big rabbit in his hat.
9. SWA pay raises are 2% until complete integration. 2% raise is already listed in the SWAPA site as $189.78 (12YR CAPT) for 9/1/11 and may be 3% with 3Q earnings. This would be $220.27 hourly if using the 1.1607 multiplier in the old AT LOA. Variable raises going forward are considered to net 2% - trying to be conservative and optimistic.
10. If both sides pass this, B717’s stay until lease expiration or longer post 2015, no bump or flush, several new B717 bases. B717 pay snaps up to B737 pay January 1, 2015 per agreement/SL10.
Excursus: With our PS being so low from what it used to be, the B fund part of the AT contract in lieu of PS as well as the wide-body (WB) premium of 28% absolutely should be pursued in the next SWA Section 6.
TY: (61% SWA Jan 2012, 57.5% Jan 2015 with 250 senior retirements/medicals/resignations, etc.)
2010, 10YR AT B737 CAPT, $144.00x78x12=$134,784+$14,152 (B fund). $30,652 APR.
2011, 11YR AT B737 CAPT, $156.17x78x12=$146,175+$15,348 (B fund). $31,848 APR.
2012, 12YR AT B717/737 CAPT, $165.02x78x12=$154,458+$21,779 (match/PS). $38,278 APR.
2013a, 13YR SWA B717 CAPT, $146.53x105x12=$184,627+$26,033 (match/PS). $42,533 APR.
2013b, 12YR SWA B737 FO, $138.21x105x12=$174,140+$24,554 (match/PS). $41,053 APR.
2014a, 14YR SWA B717 CAPT, $155.10x105x12=$195,426+$27,555 (match/PS). $44,055 APR.
2015a, 12YR SWA NB CAPT, $201.39x105x12=$253,761+$35,780 (match/PS). $52,280 APR.
TY SUMMARY: TY may head back to B717 CAPT or bid SWA B737 FO during integration. I assume option “a” is probably the better choice as QOL may be tolerable if not as good due to new bases opening up. For CY2015, assuming TY earns the AVG TFP, his compensation is double that of CY2010.
LEAR: (88.5% SWA Jan 2012, 84.5% Jan 2015 with 300 senior retirements/medicals/resignations, etc.)
2010, 5YR AT B717 FO, $72.01x78x12=$67,401+$7,077 (B fund). $23,577 APR.
2011, 6YR AT B717 FO, $92.50x78x12=$86,580+$9,091 (B fund). $25,591 APR.
2012a, 7YR AT B717 FO, $97.24x78x12=$91,016+$$12,833 (match/PS). $29,333 APR.
2012b, 7YR SWA B717 FO, $83.78x105x12=$105,563+$14,884 (match/PS). $31,384 APR.
NOTE: Assumptions can be changed if 105TFP/month seems high. My understanding of the AT LOA with the new MMG of 76 hours corresponds to our TFP/month guarantee of 88 (AVG over 12 months). The hourly rates are changed to TFP by dividing the hourly rate by 1.16065 (1.1607). The AT hourly rate multiplied by the new MMG should equal the SWA SL10 TFP multiplied by the monthly guarantee. The assumption of 105TFP per month is based upon SWAPA published averages. Many discussions on our forums debate the median. The average line per the bid packet may be a better number. This number seems to hover around the mid to upper 90’s. Commutable lines are probably less while non-commutable lines are more, as logic would dictate.
2013, 8YR SWA B717 FO, $87.07x105x12=$109,708+$15,469 (match/PS). $31,969 APR.
2014, 9YR SWA B717 FO, $94.66x105x12=$119,272+$16,817 (match/PS). $33,317 APR.
2015, 10YR SWA NB FO, $137.94x105x12=$173,799+$24,505 (match/PS). $41,006 APR.
LEAR SUMMARY: Using the above assumptions Lear’s compensation has increased 258% from CY2010 to CY2015. NB is listed for both Ty and Lear since all SWA A/C will be on the same rate at that time. If the economy improves, this may happen earlier with a new Section 6 (doubtful since GK will hand us our ass again, I’m sure), or more likely we’ll have growth. The reason I think this may be likely, as well as a 3rd aircraft type (maybe a WB) is that all of our junior guys, along with AT's, need growth, hope and a moral boost once this painful episode is completed. If not, it would be prudent, economically and emotionally, to seek better pastures since retirements at FedEx, UAL/CAL and DAL/NWA will become significant in the upcoming years leading to much better upward mobility within their seniority lists. This could prove to be a costly development for SWA as training cycles for new hires increase dramatically as a lower list exodus occurs. I believe, if this agreement passes, any Plan B will be put away and growth may resume in a year or two. Public comments from GK and the CFO, an examination of capital expenditures, and a logical observation of interpolating what an optimized SWA/AT route structure would look like indicate that growth could be an actual possibility. Notwithstanding the economic difficulties observable all around us, potential for growth and making money does exist.
1. 2010/2011 Minimum Monthly Guarantee (MMG) is 70; assuming 78 since actual is probably be higher.
2. 2012-2014 MMG is 76, assuming 78 like above. SWA TFP guarantee is 88, assuming 105 is average per SWAPA NC and contract gurus.
3. No per diem calculations.
4. 2010/2011 retirement: 10.5% B fund and $16,500 IRS max 401k contribution.
5. 2012-2015 retirement: $16,500 IRS max 401k contribution, 9.3% match, 4.8% profit sharing (5yr AVG) per last SWAPA Reporting Point.
6. SWA 401k match limit is $25,000 ($268,817 pay needed): per IRS $245,000 is compensation limit. Top Hat rules, limits and options are better explained in another thread; perhaps one of the smart guys like Andy could start one of these – l can send him our data to analyze. Regardless of the IRS rules, annual potential retirement is labeled below as APR.
7. 50% CAPT and FO. 7,834 total pilots.
8. Per SL10, 330 B737 CAPT seats go to SWA by September 2014 while 222 SWA and 26 AT CAPT’s retire (248 total) along with 21 SWA and 9 AT FO’s (30 total) by January 1, 2015. Too lazy to see where these are on the list. No growth list until 2015 unless GK has a big rabbit in his hat.
9. SWA pay raises are 2% until complete integration. 2% raise is already listed in the SWAPA site as $189.78 (12YR CAPT) for 9/1/11 and may be 3% with 3Q earnings. This would be $220.27 hourly if using the 1.1607 multiplier in the old AT LOA. Variable raises going forward are considered to net 2% - trying to be conservative and optimistic.
10. If both sides pass this, B717’s stay until lease expiration or longer post 2015, no bump or flush, several new B717 bases. B717 pay snaps up to B737 pay January 1, 2015 per agreement/SL10.
Excursus: With our PS being so low from what it used to be, the B fund part of the AT contract in lieu of PS as well as the wide-body (WB) premium of 28% absolutely should be pursued in the next SWA Section 6.
TY: (61% SWA Jan 2012, 57.5% Jan 2015 with 250 senior retirements/medicals/resignations, etc.)
2010, 10YR AT B737 CAPT, $144.00x78x12=$134,784+$14,152 (B fund). $30,652 APR.
2011, 11YR AT B737 CAPT, $156.17x78x12=$146,175+$15,348 (B fund). $31,848 APR.
2012, 12YR AT B717/737 CAPT, $165.02x78x12=$154,458+$21,779 (match/PS). $38,278 APR.
2013a, 13YR SWA B717 CAPT, $146.53x105x12=$184,627+$26,033 (match/PS). $42,533 APR.
2013b, 12YR SWA B737 FO, $138.21x105x12=$174,140+$24,554 (match/PS). $41,053 APR.
2014a, 14YR SWA B717 CAPT, $155.10x105x12=$195,426+$27,555 (match/PS). $44,055 APR.
2015a, 12YR SWA NB CAPT, $201.39x105x12=$253,761+$35,780 (match/PS). $52,280 APR.
TY SUMMARY: TY may head back to B717 CAPT or bid SWA B737 FO during integration. I assume option “a” is probably the better choice as QOL may be tolerable if not as good due to new bases opening up. For CY2015, assuming TY earns the AVG TFP, his compensation is double that of CY2010.
LEAR: (88.5% SWA Jan 2012, 84.5% Jan 2015 with 300 senior retirements/medicals/resignations, etc.)
2010, 5YR AT B717 FO, $72.01x78x12=$67,401+$7,077 (B fund). $23,577 APR.
2011, 6YR AT B717 FO, $92.50x78x12=$86,580+$9,091 (B fund). $25,591 APR.
2012a, 7YR AT B717 FO, $97.24x78x12=$91,016+$$12,833 (match/PS). $29,333 APR.
2012b, 7YR SWA B717 FO, $83.78x105x12=$105,563+$14,884 (match/PS). $31,384 APR.
NOTE: Assumptions can be changed if 105TFP/month seems high. My understanding of the AT LOA with the new MMG of 76 hours corresponds to our TFP/month guarantee of 88 (AVG over 12 months). The hourly rates are changed to TFP by dividing the hourly rate by 1.16065 (1.1607). The AT hourly rate multiplied by the new MMG should equal the SWA SL10 TFP multiplied by the monthly guarantee. The assumption of 105TFP per month is based upon SWAPA published averages. Many discussions on our forums debate the median. The average line per the bid packet may be a better number. This number seems to hover around the mid to upper 90’s. Commutable lines are probably less while non-commutable lines are more, as logic would dictate.
2013, 8YR SWA B717 FO, $87.07x105x12=$109,708+$15,469 (match/PS). $31,969 APR.
2014, 9YR SWA B717 FO, $94.66x105x12=$119,272+$16,817 (match/PS). $33,317 APR.
2015, 10YR SWA NB FO, $137.94x105x12=$173,799+$24,505 (match/PS). $41,006 APR.
LEAR SUMMARY: Using the above assumptions Lear’s compensation has increased 258% from CY2010 to CY2015. NB is listed for both Ty and Lear since all SWA A/C will be on the same rate at that time. If the economy improves, this may happen earlier with a new Section 6 (doubtful since GK will hand us our ass again, I’m sure), or more likely we’ll have growth. The reason I think this may be likely, as well as a 3rd aircraft type (maybe a WB) is that all of our junior guys, along with AT's, need growth, hope and a moral boost once this painful episode is completed. If not, it would be prudent, economically and emotionally, to seek better pastures since retirements at FedEx, UAL/CAL and DAL/NWA will become significant in the upcoming years leading to much better upward mobility within their seniority lists. This could prove to be a costly development for SWA as training cycles for new hires increase dramatically as a lower list exodus occurs. I believe, if this agreement passes, any Plan B will be put away and growth may resume in a year or two. Public comments from GK and the CFO, an examination of capital expenditures, and a logical observation of interpolating what an optimized SWA/AT route structure would look like indicate that growth could be an actual possibility. Notwithstanding the economic difficulties observable all around us, potential for growth and making money does exist.