SW Upgrade Times

[Fox2]

Any ideas of upgrade times given the expected hiring over the next few years? Is Oakland a reasonable domicile for a new hire?

Thanks

 

[SWAdude]

Very reasonable. I have found it always tough to guess upgrade times. There are just too many variables.

OAK has been and probably always will be one of the more junior bases. Along with BWI.

 

[Cyclone]

upgrades

If you started tomorrow.

You need to get to ~ 1/2 way up the list before you upgrade

There are ~ 4000 on the list.

Retirements equate to 5-10/month off the list...so they need to hire 5-10/month underneath you to sustain the numbers where they are today. At 10/month that would be 200 months before you upgraded. Yikes...that's almost like a mortgage.

But...if they grow it's a net of roughly 10 (round numbers for easy arithmetic) people they need for each plane.

If they add a net gain of 10 planes a year they need ~100 pilots/year...if they add 20, ~ 200 pilots and so on.

So, if the average over the next seven years is 10/month due to retirements (lose 840 pilots in the next seven years)--they need to replace those guys/gals to sustain the current numbers.

But...if they add more planes...they also need to add more pilots, If you assume a net gain of 20 planes/year for the next seven years (140 more planes), they'll need to hire 1400+ more pilots for growth.

At that point seniority-wise you'll be at 3160/5400. Maybe a little early to upgrade, but if you go to a junior base...maybe not. The calculation is pessimistic at least one way because they actually hire a little more than 10 pilots/plane. Nevertheless...unknown variables are
1) how many retirements in next 7-8 years? (someone knows)
2) what will growth be? (Even Herb does not know)

 

[Cyclone]

Retirements

Anyone have accurate retirement numbers off seniority list for SWA?
Retirements in:
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10, etc.

Thanks...cyclone

 

[dhampton]

Upgrade time is 5 to 7 seven years. Baltimore and Midway are the two junior Captain bases.

 

[SWAdude]

Please remember 5 to 7 years is for guys that are upgrading now.

Its tough to predict the future.

SWAdude

 

[SWAdude]

SWA Retirements.

04.....77
05.....90
06.....139
07.....130
08.....120
09.....95
10.....111
11.....99
12.....92

SWAdude

 

[Cyclone]

thanks SWA dude

SO...saying it a different way "cumulative retirements"
'04--77
'05--167
'06--306
'07--436
'08--556
'09--651
'10--762
'11--861
'12--953

Hire to sustain the ~4000 pilots with 0 growth...in 9 years (if you were the next guy to be on the seniority list)...you would have 953 below you. Reality is there will be more folks to replace due to medical, etc...but this is "conservative estimate."

If SWA adds average of 12 planes/year (at 11/plane)...~132 pilots added/year
after 9 years (132*9)=1188 more pilots (5188 total); #3047/5188
after 8 years (132*8)=1056 more pilots (5056 total); #3139/5056
after 7 years (132*7)=924 more pilots (4924 total); #3238/4924

If SWA adds average of 24 planes/year (at 11/plane)...~264 pilots added /year
after 9 years (264*9)=2376 more pilots (6376 total); #3047/6376
after 8 years (264*8)=2112 more pilots (6112 total); #3139/6112
after 7 years (264*7)=1848 more pilots (5848 total); #3238/5848
...and so on.

Bottom line...Pray for growth...without it, you are an FO for a long time.

 

[T1bubba]

SWAdude's numbers look about right, but may be a little low. The chart on the SWAPA web site shows over 100 retirements a year starting in 06 and continuing until 2028. That only includes folks senior to me (just about everyone).

Based on retirements and planned aircraft deliveries the web site estimates I'll upgrade between 76 and 80 months at the junior base (currently BWI). Historically this method has been conservative since we usually accelerate deliveries, but a lot could happen between now and then.

T1

 

[SWAdude]

"SWAdude's numbers look about right, but may be a little low"

I got the numbers on the site....because its a graph I might be one or two numbers off. I find it to be accurate.

SWAdude

 

[T1bubba]

The graph is only for people senior to you, it doesn't count people junior to you who are retiring. I guess you're senior enough to have a few of those, as my chart has higher numbers.

T1

 

[SWAdude]

Interesting...I didn't know that....thanks...

How many numbers is the difference?

SWAdude

 

[SWAdude]

Actually if i would have read the header I would have known

SWAdude

 

[T1bubba]

Here are my best estimates of the numbers on the chart...

04- 80
05- 98
06- 148
07- 144
08- 138
09- 105
10- 140
11- 154
12- 146

The chart peaks in 22 with over 230 retirements that year.

T1