Supply and demand

[Jetjockey]

With the impending pilot shortage with FAR 117, especially at the regional airline level....it astounds me that management has the audacity to attempt concessions from it's pilot groups. Some regional airlines can barely fill classes now.

Stand strong and hold your ground. Don't fall for the scare games they love to play. They have been using the same worn out playbook for 20 years.

P.S. Cohen is the devil.

 

[Oakum_Boy]

Spot on. They can't find people now, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

They're trying to find the bottom. They've found it already, they're just unaware.

 

[Freebrd]

Mgt just attempting to drive down wages while they THINK they can, before the 'great shortage' occurs. Fk 'em, pay me!

NO! To any and all concessions! :angryfire

:uzi:

 

[JustaNumber]

Spot on. They can't find people now, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

They're trying to find the bottom. They've found it already, they're just unaware.

They've found the bottom when talking about hiring off the street, but the Pinnacle guys eagerly jumping lower showed them the current employees are not necessarily there yet. All they have to do is engineer the books to cry poor and enter bankruptcy, and guys will sell their souls because "the judge could have forced something worse."

Newhire shortage? Just throw some bonuses out there along with a university flow-through, and we'll be just fine offering the pilots half as much. At least that is what management is thinking.

Notice how they always threaten extreme draconian cuts through a judge, but such cuts are never enacted because the pilots always agree to something halfway, and also notice how such companies always survive just fine. THAT SHOULD TELL YOU THAT WHAT A JUDGE THREATENS IS NEVER NECESSARY--IT'S JUST A WAY TO GET YOU TO VOLUNTARILY TAKE CONCESSIONS, BECAUSE YOUR MORALE WILL BE HIGHER AS YOU LINE THEIR POCKETS! Wake up, people (yes I'm talking to you Pinnacle guys).

The rest of the industry needs to prove what fools the Pinnacle pilots are.

 

[Jetjockey]

Don't just point fingers at one group. Stand united as one group or get picked off one group at a time. End the whipsaw cycle now.

 

[145BOSS]

I think the Majors are pretty excited about the shortage. They've been wanting to shed some of their 50 seat feed but have been restricted by long term contracts. With the lack of staffing regionals' performance will go below the contractual required levels and the majors will be able to cancel some of the contracts letting them focus on 70 seat feed.

 

[JustaNumber]

Don't just point fingers at one group. Stand united as one group or get picked off one group at a time. End the whipsaw cycle now.

I hear what you're saying, but it was the direct actions of that one group that our management directly referenced when telling us what we need to do to compete with them. So they do need to be called out, and they need to feel some heat.

Perhaps a little fear of such industrywide anger directed towards them might motivate the next group to think twice before giving management everything they want.

 

[livin'thesim]

I've stopped using the term "shortage", because it means too many things to too many people.

Also, most people would rather argue endlessly about what the term "shortage" means rather than discuss useful idea about how pilots can capitalize on the upcoming shift in the pilot labor market.

All that aside, I still think we have a couple more years to go before the slack comes out of the pilot supply and management starts to feel the pain.

If what I hear is correct, there are still pilots from Comair to be absorbed and there are pilots at crappy regionals who are probably willing to start over again at better regionals.

The pain will show up at the smaller carriers first, especially if they have poor quality of life.

I would be surprised if one or two of the lowest-level regionals doesn't end up failing.

Not so much because there are "no applicants" as much as they will probably drown from high turnover and training costs.

The FAA will be looking over any carrier's shoulder when turnover gets high, creating additional time and regulatory compliance roadblocks for those operators. I predict at least one regional will fail due to pilot staffing issues (note that I didn't say "shortage"!!!).

The ATP/1500 hr rule will only exacerbate this. Dirtbag carriers will no longer be able to hire premature-birth academy wunderkids at 250 hours (who have paid Guinness-book record ticket prices to fly on a 1900).

 

[jetstream]

Think of it this way; management is the bully and pilots are the skinny kid.

Would you rather hand over your lunch money and walk away in shame wishing you had the courage to stand up for yourself or walk away with no lunch money and a busted nose but the knowledge that at least you stood up to him.

To paraphrase a poem by Teddy Roosevelt, I don't want to be "one of those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat".

A house divided will not stand. Stand strong.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Supposedly Compass just started a class of 6. All 6 were Pinnacle FO's jumping ship. I'd love to see Pinnacle actually try to hire anyone worth a crap post concessions.

 

[CFIT]

I think if any regional that's in negotiations would wait for 1 year to go back to the table, they would have a lot more leverage than they do today?

 

[livin'thesim]

That's why the smart management groups are settling early, I believe. I think they want to lock in rates before too much uncertainty occurs.