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Southwest will need to generate higher revenue

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canyonblue

Everyone loves Southwest
Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
2,314
Southwest Air CFO: Still Rebuilding New Orleans Service

By Ann Keeton, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO -(Dow Jones)- Rebuilding service to New Orleans will remain the top priority this year for Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Chief Financial Officer Laura Wright said at an airline conference Wednesday.

By March, the airline will operate 19 daily flights to the Louisiana city, still short of the 26 daily flights it operated before Hurricane Katrina devastated the area last year.

Ticket bookings remain strong, with new service to the Denver market performing well, Wright said. Las Vegas is the top passenger market for Southwest, with 216 daily departures. The airline hasn't yet decided whether to add service to an additional city in 2006, Wright said.

Southwest still expects its costs this year to remain flat with 2005, excluding the cost of fuel and a charge for expensing stock options.

Fuel hedging continues to give the airline a significant advantage over competitors this year. In 2006, the airline has hedged 70% of its fuel needs at $36 a barrel. But, as fuel hedges expire over the next five years, Wright said Southwest will need to generate higher revenue to cover the added cost. The airline expects to do that with gradual increases in fare prices, Wright said.

Wright said Southwest remains committed to being the lowest-cost U.S. airline. So far, she said, it doesn't make sense to add in-flight services that passengers would pay for, as low cost competitor JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) is considering. The airline is fighting a $24 million bill it received in January for services by the Transportation Security Administration, a government agency, for providing airport security in 2005.

"It's hard to tell you whether we will be successful," Wright said.

***...to cover the added cost. The airline expects to do that with gradual increases in fare prices***

I don't know if that has ever been tried before in this industry.:rolleyes:
 
So far, she said, it doesn't make sense to add in-flight services that passengers would pay for, as low cost competitor JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) is considering.

I didn't know that JB is considering charging for services.
 
FlyAuburn said:
So far, she said, it doesn't make sense to add in-flight services that passengers would pay for, as low cost competitor JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) is considering.

I didn't know that JB is considering charging for services.


I think she's reffering to food service. Isn't jetBlue considering some sort of a "buy on board" snack service?
 
What is plan B?

I remember reading an article about 6 months ago that said that when SWA's fuel hedges finally run out around 2009 or 2010 their fuel costs will go up by well over 1 billion/year (If I remember correctly I think the number quoted was about 1.2 to 1.3 Billion). Granted, this article was written during the fuel spike last year and was assuming fuel prices would stay high - but it still seams like an awful lot of money to try to make up in gradual ticket price increases in order to just break even much less turn a profit. How much will they have to raise ticket prices by to cover this? Any thoughts?
 
2 bucks a ticket and we are covered.
 
Arkady said:
I remember reading an article about 6 months ago that said that when SWA's fuel hedges finally run out around 2009 or 2010 their fuel costs will go up by well over 1 billion/year (If I remember correctly I think the number quoted was about 1.2 to 1.3 Billion). Granted, this article was written during the fuel spike last year and was assuming fuel prices would stay high - but it still seams like an awful lot of money to try to make up in gradual ticket price increases in order to just break even much less turn a profit. How much will they have to raise ticket prices by to cover this? Any thoughts?


This is easy to figure out. I'll have to take a look at passengers carried again in the SEC filings or look at the average fare, around $93, and look at passenger revenue. Then divide revenue by 93 to get number of passengers. Then divide result into 500 million.

Fuel cost going up this year by $500 mil. Another $500 million by 2009. Company is telling us the estimate is $4 a ticket increase will cover the increase in cost in 2006.
 
Off the 10K 2005.

Average fare increase 5.6%
Lower fuel hedges in 2006 estimates are for additionaly $500-600million fuel cost

Analysts estimates for SWA:

1% fare increase raises $80m
Air fares in US expected to rise 6-12% in 2006, average across the board
Bottom of scale fare increases for SWA would result in $480m in revenue
Top end of scale would raise $960million of revenue for 2006 (if analysts are correct)
 

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