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So much speculation

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Well-known member
Dec 17, 2001
I know there are so many rumors going around about when pilot hiring is really supposed to start back up again, but I was looking at www.v1rotate.com. They say from "Their research" that there are 8000 pilots on furlough and 800 have been recalled with 300/month being recalled for 1st and 2nd quarter and 500/month for 3rd and 4th quarter. They way I figure it, that will take 18 months. Do you think this figure is accurate? I'm wondering whether to do charter for a year and then start thinking about regionals again.
That might be true for some.....

American and United have completely closed their Pilot Recruitment Departments. Closed.....as in everyone who works there is now employed elsewhere....closed as there isn't even a section in that company called Pilot Recruitment. A company wouldn't close a section if it wasn't going to be shut-down for years. Last time American closed their Pilot Recruitment Department, it was closed for 5 years. (I'm hoping that it isn't 5 years this time....)

My guess for (most) majors will be 3 to 5 years before a new-hire class (Obviously SWA, FedEx aren't in this category). Regionals -- much sooner.
Facts as I believe them:

We are recovering.
Pilots will retire and replaced with new.
Airframes will be retired and replaced with new.
The economy will improve and then it will get degrade. It's cyclic. Always has been, always will be.
The population of this world is growing. It is also growing at a rate that exceeds the growth of aircraft seats available.
The internet, and telecommuting, and all that electronic stuff will never replace human interaction. You can never shake hands, touch an object, see a sunset off the beach, or smell an aroma over the phone. Travel will never die!

The gist of all this is don't look at the industry through a straw. Yes, it's limping right now, but it is still walking. It won't be too long until it's running. I also truely believe that airline management has/is using 9/11 as a tool for correction to the over-inflated business model. They are developing solutions that will allow for greater future stability and more conservative growth. While it is very painful to be furloughed, I believe that once these pilots are back, they will be back for good.
Hey ASApuppy, pass the pipe dude. :cool:

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