The TUS domicile currently has 36 FOs. The standing bid list has another 25 willing to transfer/transition there with 10 of them having TUS as there first choice. The TUS domicile has remained pretty much the same size the last few years so getting assigned there will depend upon how fast the FOs currently there move out. Only the top 15 or so on the list have the seniority to upgrade on the EMB or ORD on the RJ.
The transition/upgrade list for ORD currently shows around 250 pilots with a bid in. ORD at this time only has about 130-140 Captains. I'd bet ORD will stabilize somewhere in the 3-4 year range for upgrade.
Past performance (ie 2 year upgrade) is a poor indicator for the future. In the past 2 years we have hired a bunch - 500-600+ pilots, that will all have the opportunity to upgrade before anyone joining the list now. The junior RJ captain now has over 800 pilots below him on the list. (2178 pilots total)
Attrition is still running pretty strong however so there is still movement on the list. Typically there is an upgrade/transition class of 20-30 every month for the RJ and a class of 10-20 EMB upgrades every other month.
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