SkyWest Upgrade Times -- setting the record straight

[viper548]

Viper, keep in mind, past performance is not always a good indication of future returns. Upgrade could be that low in ORD, but it's really dependent on continuing growth within the company as a whole. If we get a new codeshare and some new domiciles, it could well be lower than that. Stagnant growth and no new airplanes and it could be significantly longer.

yeah, i wouldn't tell 1.5-2 years to someone hired today. I think a 3/05 newhire will be able to make ORD CRJ CA in 2 years. There has been a lot of hiring done after 3/05 and the latest i've heard is 150 more this year. ORD is growing rapidly and not that many people want to be based there. There are a lot of FOs that hold out for their domicile of choice before upgrading. I don't expect our current rate of expansion to continue forever.
However, like you said, past performance does not equate to future returns.

 

[threegreen]

It's all a crapshoot anyway. I think if you want to fly for a regional, go to a company you think you'll like... good bases, pay (relatively), schedules over upgrade time. Because by the time a newhire with a date of 9/27/05 upgrades everything will have changed.

 

[viper548]

Unless you get hired at Mesa. They have high attrition rates

 

[Socalplt]

I've been here 5 1/2 years and when I started EMB upgrades were under a year and a half. My first chance at EMB upgrade didn't come until 30 months and RJ at 33 months. I pulled out my bid for the RJ class at 33 months and my next opportunity didn't come until 45 months. I could have held EMB captain, but preferred life as a senior RJ FO. Guys that had started just 3-6 months before me had been captains for years, conversely people that started 6 months after waited even longer unless they went to IAH.

Even with 5 1/2 years with the company I can't hold any of the CA domiciles, and I'm barely off reserve in SLC. With the DL cutbacks in SLC and the rumored loss of 40 flights a day in December I'll be looking at reserve again or moving east.

SkyWest is returning 10 RJ's back to Delta and planned UA deliveries stop in February. Captain attrition is at 63 so far this year. Unless we announce some more delieveries I'd imagine upgrade will grind to a halt, with the occasional class for attrition. Who knows we could announce an order for a bunch of 900's next month. FWIW I think the last RJ class had the junior upgrade at about 2 1/2 - 3 years.

SkyWest currently has around 2180 pilots with 1100 of those First Officers. Out of those 1100, 338 have upgrade bids in for RJ captain and 111 for EMB captain. There are currrnetly 190+ pilots willing to take ORD for the upgrade or transition.

 

[DelphinDriver]

What are the junior seniority domiciles for new hire FO's?

 

[viper548]

ORD, DEN, SLC, COS, FAT, TUS. Depending on senority within your class, you could get any of those initially or get transfered within a few months