SkyWest/Republic & Scope

[Jetjockey]

It definitely will not take 10 years.

A healthy airtran, jetblue, and the monolith SWA have driven 70 seat and smaller aircraft to the graveyard. You simply can't compete against strong LLC's with an RJ. This has little to do with passenger "little jet" mentality and a lot to do with CASM, RASM and yields.

There are a few markets where a small jet can charge a premium only because an LCC doesn't serve those markets.

There are also a few markets that provide a significant amount of feed for their mainline partner.

Other than those few markets, the 70 seat and smaller jet is dead. Republic learned quickly that RJ's don't work against airtran, even with their laughable rj pay rates. Thankfully Republic is making massive capacity adjustments very quickly.

Continental and UAL already have 50 seat protection, it is called the economy. Take a look at the mainline carriers that have unlimited or very large 50-70 seat allowances. How many of those gauge aircraft are being added? How many of those gauge aircraft are being parked?

Scope needs to focus on the 190 and larger aircraft. That is the real threat today and for the foreseeable future.

Spot on, except that the new UAL will have CAL's scope.

 

[curtaindriver]

Realistic??? What? Mainline pilots are MORE inclined to create tougher Scope. Why? We have all watched this industry go to heck thanks to RJs. The main reason Scope was relieved was because BKs forced it. Legacies have been doing better, paying off some debt, and contracts are coming due. DL's contract is up in 2012, UAL/CAL are doing their joint contract now (they really want to tighten scope big time), USAir wants to eventually get an agreement with their own pilots (if they get it together), etc. Doesn't really sound good for regionals, unless they try to buy everyone up and create monopolies. But, there isn't just one monopoly now, there are a few---Pinnacle (plus Colgan and Mesaba), SkyWest (plus ASA and XJT), Republic, and the Mesa group. What does that mean? There will still be whipsaws against each other. So, unless the large Regionals go for an "Independence" like solo project, they will start to suffer, and new FAA rest/fatigue rules and new hiring minimums just won't help the situation. And don't forget the new liability law that now places the legacy liable for a crash at the Regional level. That won't help either. Oh well.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Hey General, I think the assumption stated above is actually scope NOT being loosened. that's how I read it.

CD

 

[General Lee]

Hey General, I think the assumption stated above is actually scope NOT being loosened. that's how I read it.

CD

It will be tightened and more restrictive to benefit Mainline pilots. Better?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[curtaindriver]

It will be tightened and more restrictive to benefit Mainline pilots. Better?


Bye Bye--General Lee

Sorry bro, I wasn't referring to what you said....completely agree with you. I was referring to the original post......that the CEO said it was a "realistic assumption" that scope would NOT be relaxed. That's how I read that statement. I thought your reply to it was being interpreted the opposite.......I could have been wrong.

CD