I.P. Freley said:
AeroSlave,
With all due respect... If you've been at SA for "several years", you will not have anything close to "800" people ahead of you in line. If you've even been at SA for THREE years, and you assume DOH, you will have a seniority number no lower than about 500 (out of what will be, by the time this all happens, probably...1100? 1200?). If you're in the top 50% now, you are going to stay there.
A friend of mine was hired at CHQ in (I think) very late '02 and finished his captain IOE about a month ago... After putting off upgrade for several months to ensure a better choice of flying, so there are already people between him and "the bottom".
No, you won't be top o' the list by any stretch, but you're going to be in a fairly good position if you've been at SA for anything approaching the length of time you suggested in your post. RAH is still growing and your position will only get better. Keeping in mind the more senior Cap's at CHQ have already moved over to the 170, your position on the 145 list should be better still. Stay on the Saab as long as you can to keep your QOL (a relative term, I know) and by the time you "have to" bid the jet flying, bid the smallest jet you can (and the most convenient base) and your seniority will probably be pretty good.
A few of your comments suggests you could be "Old Shuttle". If so, your seniority will be pretty good indeed. Get on the 145 and you could conceivably have the kind of seniority that would keep you near the top of the list... Though if you ARE Old Shuttle, the pay raise won't be quite as dramatic as for the rest of the SA people.
If all of this happens as read, of course.