Started class in Dec. Just doing the math here. Including my class, AirTran had approx 1000 pilots. If we hire approx 260 per year, in four years, that will bring us to approximately 2040 total pilots by year-end 2008. Let's assume a very modest rate of attrition in the list above us over those four years due to retirements, medical, and miscellaneous other reasons totaling 30 seniority spots (we'll also assume that they hire to make up for these losses). That would put someone getting hired today at approximately 970 on the seniority list out of 2040 at the end of '08 (46%).
If we upgrade FO's to captain at around the 60% seniority mark, that would put upgrade time at around 2.5 years assuming growth remains as projected (a big assumption in this industry). After the first year, new hires brought on today would be at around the 77% point after the first year, 64% after the 2nd year, and 54% after the third year.
Speaking of new-hires, the quality is very impressive to me. We have some very experienced military and civilian people coming on board. Several retired military with vast amounts of experience, other military folks with significant evaluator time, and others with quite a bit of combat time. On the civilian side, we've got some check airmen, others with fairly long careers at smaller airlines, and a couple of furloughed majors (they had to give up their seniority numbers).
