Rumors Fly Over Fate of Midwest Planes

[CitationLover]

Dude, you have no clue. We are actually supposed to shrink 2 airplanes during 2009 (4 deliveries and 6 to be sold as of January 2009). It is not an issue of forcing growth somewhere because we are growing so fast. Airtran 2009 ASM are projected to be down 4% from 2008 levels. We are shrinking ATL a little and shifting flights to MKE and BWI, two markets where unit revenue performance is doing really well.

Yes, the ASM's are down due to 737's being sold, yet market factors are dictating an ATL shrinkage and Timmy opening the door in MKE is what I am referring to them thowing airplanes into it.

As for Branson, that is going to be one flight a day out of MKE. The rest of the stuff we are going to do out of MKE involves large business cities like LAX, SFO, SEA, SAN, LAS, PHX, BOS, LGA, DCA, MSP, STL, BWI, DEN, and ATL. Between originating traffic from MKE plus all the connections possibilities from those 13 cities, I am sure we can keep our airplanes full enough in this economic environment.

Out of the list you have maybe two (BOS, LGA) would qualify as a true business destination. The rest you will be competing with Legacies who will match any fares you have or have their businesses already feeding them through connections in DTW, MSP (DAL) or ORD (AA, UAL), or direct from MKE (US Airways). All I said was AirTran is making a move here simply because MKE is a city ripe, thanks to Tim, not because the demand (or connection demand) would dictate it as EVEYONE'S demand is projected to be a lot lower in 2009.

And if you are worrying about our 1 flight a day to Branson bankrupting Airtran, I am sure the city is guaranteeing a certain amount of revenue as they realize the benefit of having low fare service to their resort destination.

What better use of taxpayer funds than to push air service in a depressionary environment. Must be the Branson "stimulus" package.

 

[CitationLover]

But you do have to study the past to see what mistakes were made. Midwest continued to lose money in 2005 and 2006 as most airlines were turning the corner. Midwest had no new airplanes on order. Then, Midwest starting using 50 seat aircraft as a way of growing MEH. Based on these facts, the Midwest MEC decided to have a vote of confidence on the great Timmy H and the junior guys never tried to recall the senior guys that were screwing their careers. Yeah, there might have been a few radical guys on here saying staple MEH pilots but that never wouldn't have happened. That is not to say that Midwest might have got the worse end of an integration but still would have had better career expectations in the long run.

Minor point:
Midwest actually made money in 2006. So as you told me, "Dude, you have no clue."

95%+ of all airlines lost money in 2005.

Our pilot group saved the company from bankruptcy and the mec made a decision based upon what they were told from your mec regarding seniority. It had no repurcussions on what the Midwest Board, including 3 of YOUR AAI HANDPICKED MEMBERS, who voted to accept TPG's offer. So again, why are you throwing our MEC under the bus?

 

[CitationLover]

Whatever it is, at least AAI's increased flights allowed "bunker" Tim to emerge and make a statment. Thanks Tim for your personal touch and humility.

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif][FONT=Ariel, sans-serif]A message from Tim Hoeksema:
It should come as no surprise to any of us when other airlines launch service from cities we serve. Tuesday's announcement by AirTran that it was adding service from Milwaukee is nothing we haven't successfully faced from a variety of competitors over the past 25 years. In fact, competition is good for the marketplace. We believe our customers appreciate the fact that our schedule offers year-round nonstop service to many popular business destinations, along with our continuing commitment to customer service. It is these things that have and will continue to differentiate us. Thank you for everything you do, every day, to provide our customers with "The best care in the air."

[/FONT][/FONT]

 

[maxblast72]

So again, why are you throwing our MEC under the bus?

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Timmy already bringing in Skywest as the future growth for MEH instead of ordering new airplanes and chopping Midwest mainline ramper pay down to Skyway ramper pay before the Airtran takeover attempt? What was Timmy doing during the pre-merger time period that showed he was really interesting in growing mainline and taking care of the hard working Midwest employees that were providing the "best care in the air"? It doesn't seem like Timmy had any leadership in taking MEH the right direction yet your MEC was more than happy to stand right behind him declaring he's the man.

 

[maxblast72]

What better use of taxpayer funds than to push air service in a depressionary environment. Must be the Branson "stimulus" package.

I am not real familiar with Branson, but if their city's economy is real dependent on tourism, low fare service to bring 500-800 people to their city a week might be what need. I am sure the city did some research before agreeing to whatever contract has been signed.

At these fuel prices, Branson may be profitable without any additional revenue from the city. This recessionary environment has actually been very good for Airtran. Load factors have been averaging 3-5% higher on a year over year basis. With $100 average fares, our new checked baggage fees, and Jet A around a $1.50/gallon, Airtran is going to have a good 2009. I think the load factors prove that recessions don't affect the airlines with $100 tickets as much as airlines that depend on the $500-$1000 tickets for their profits.

Analysts are even projecting a $5-10 million 1st quarter profit. Don't forget the first quarter is normally our worst. And the recessionary environment is keeping a cap on oil prices as inventory reports week after week show oil sitting around in storage at higher and higher levels. At $4.10/gallon last summer, Airtran was very cash flow negative. At $1.50/gallon, Airtran's business model does extremely well as proven by Airtran's 2002 and 2003 results and 2009 analyst projections.

 

[CitationLover]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Timmy already bringing in Skywest as the future growth for MEH instead of ordering new airplanes and chopping Midwest mainline ramper pay down to Skyway ramper pay before the Airtran takeover attempt? What was Timmy doing during the pre-merger time period that showed he was really interesting in growing mainline and taking care of the hard working Midwest employees that were providing the "best care in the air"? It doesn't seem like Timmy had any leadership in taking MEH the right direction yet your MEC was more than happy to stand right behind him declaring he's the man.

Yet you wanted them to support your MEC who told them to expect to be stapled..........

Again, what impact, would our MEC have had on the Midwest Board to accept AAI's offer? What about the 3 hanpicked AAI boardmembers who voted against the AAI offer? You really give Jay, Greg, and Mark a lot of credit for the "power" they brought to the merger behind the scenes.

 

[CitationLover]

I am not real familiar with Branson, but if their city's economy is real dependent on tourism, low fare service to bring 500-800 people to their city a week might be what need. I am sure the city did some research before agreeing to whatever contract has been signed.

At these fuel prices, Branson may be profitable without any additional revenue from the city. This recessionary environment has actually been very good for Airtran. Load factors have been averaging 3-5% higher on a year over year basis. With $100 average fares, our new checked baggage fees, and Jet A around a $1.50/gallon, Airtran is going to have a good 2009. I think the load factors prove that recessions don't affect the airlines with $100 tickets as much as airlines that depend on the $500-$1000 tickets for their profits.

Analysts are even projecting a $5-10 million 1st quarter profit. Don't forget the first quarter is normally our worst. And the recessionary environment is keeping a cap on oil prices as inventory reports week after week show oil sitting around in storage at higher and higher levels. At $4.10/gallon last summer, Airtran was very cash flow negative. At $1.50/gallon, Airtran's business model does extremely well as proven by Airtran's 2002 and 2003 results and 2009 analyst projections.

We shall see if load factors remain as again I hope the yield factor remains up there as it is the true measure. Good luck to AAI, we've had enough job losses in this industry already in this downturn.

 

[maxblast72]

Yet you wanted them to support your MEC who told them to expect to be stapled..........

Again, what impact, would our MEC have had on the Midwest Board to accept AAI's offer? What about the 3 hanpicked AAI boardmembers who voted against the AAI offer? You really give Jay, Greg, and Mark a lot of credit for the "power" they brought to the merger behind the scenes.

I really doubt NPA union leadership told your MEC to expect to be stapled. I bet that was your MEC propaganda to try to turn the junior guys against the Airtran merger.

If your MEC would have tried to rally all Midwest employees for the Airtran merger, maybe TPG wouldn't have been so willing to put in $250 million to take Midwest private (on top of Northwest $200 million). I don't blame the 3 AAI handpicked boardmembers for what they did. Northwest/TPG offered $17/share cash, and that was definitely in the best interest of the MEH shareholder.

It is all water under the bridge now. It is just funny to watch how the fact that Timmy H. doesn't care about Midwest pilots only becomes such a big deal when the senior pilots start getting affected. I hope all the junior MEH pilots get hired somewhere (including Airtran when we start hiring again) and regain some sort of career stability.

 

[CitationLover]

I really doubt NPA union leadership told your MEC to expect to be stapled. I bet that was your MEC propaganda to try to turn the junior guys against the Airtran merger.

Well I am only reporting what our MEC stated. I doubt it was simple propaganda. With our contract coming due in 2008 our MEC played simple politics in backing TH as the company was not wanting to change ANY of our successorship language in the contract, which the MEC wanted ahead of any AAI merger. This simple backing of TH was their part in politicking for that.

Again, what we the pilots did had no repurcussion on the merger. Joe Leonard stubbed his toes upon his introduction to the MKE business community with respect to local charities, etc. when questioned. This implied arrogance in addition to the MKE communities deep roots with Midwest is what garnered the support for independence. Bob Fornaro has clearly leaned from JL mistakes as you can recently see with his targeted sponsorships and donations to local charities.

 

[MEXICANFLYBOY]

http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/38683352.html

By Elizabeth Braun


Story Created: Jan 30, 2009
Story Updated: Jan 30, 2009

It could be the end of Midwest Airline's 'signature seating.' An airline industry journal is reporting Mexicana Airlines wants the remainder of Midwest's 717 airplanes, the ones with wide leather seats, and is working to get them. Midwest Airlines Spokesman Mike Brophy dismisses the reports.
"Sometimes this happens in the airline industry," says Brophy, "You've got a lot of rumor and speculation swirling around, especially when there are a lot of planes on the ground."
The Midwest Pilots' Union is working to find out how far the deal, if there is one, has gone. The union's Jerome Schnedorf believes there's more to this than just rumor.
"It's not anything that we can control, so we focus on what we can control and go forward with it."
Midwest returned 16 of the planes last fall to save money.

DATE:26/01/09

Mexicana poised to lease 25 717s
By Brendan Sobie

Mexicana is negotiating leases for about 25 Boeing 717s that will be used to replace the 25 Fokker 100s now operated by its low-cost unit Click.

A Mexicana spokesman confirms the carrier has "been in negotiations with Boeing on the 717" and aims to start replacing Fokker 100s later this year.

He says if the contract with Boeing is finalised, all 25 of Click's Fokker 100s will be replaced with 717s over the next two to three years. But he adds Mexicana will only commit to five or six-year leases because it views the 717 as a "transitional aircraft".

Early last year Mexicana studied possible replacements for Click's Fokker 100s, including the Bombardier CRJ900 and Embraer E-195. But Mexicana CEO Manuel Borja said in November its evaluation of new 100-seat aircraft had been put on hold for at least six months due to poor economic conditions.


The spokesman says that since November "some of the suppliers came back with better offers," prompting Mexicana to accelerate replacing Click's Fokker 100s. He says Mexicana continues to evaluate the CRJ900 and E-195 and "we haven't signed anything". But he adds "the 717 is the ideal aircraft for the mission we are flying".

Borja told this reporter in November only 100-seat aircraft were being considered because Click's routes are too thin for Airbus or Boeing narrowbodies and Mexicana's unions would likely oppose larger aircraft at lower-cost Click. The spokesman says Mexicana prefers the 717 over the CRJ900 and E-195 because the 717 has a wider fuselage, allowing Click to preserve its current five-seat abreast configuration.

The 717s, the spokesman says, "are relatively new airplanes and help us maintain the product we have". He adds Boeing Capital has offered aircraft that were manufactured in 2003 and 2006.

Most if not all of the aircraft being offered by Boeing Capital are likely to be the ex Midwest Airlines 717s. Midwest took delivery of 25 717s from 2003 to 2006, including the last aircraft to roll off the 717 production line. But last September Midwest, as part of a massive fleet and network restructuring, concluded a deal with Boeing Capital covering the return of 16 717s.

A Boeing Capital spokesman says all 16 of these aircraft have now been returned and are sitting at a Boeing facility in the desert. But he declined to comment on a potential deal with Mexicana.

"We're talking to a large number of customers. We're not talking about the particulars," he says. "They [the 16 airplanes] are in the remarketing process."

While Midwest was the second largest 717 operator after AirTran, which has 86 of the type, there are several airliners with small fleets. This includes carriers in Australia, Spain and Thailand which have been looking to offload 717s.

The Mexicana spokesman says the 717 and Fokker 100 burn about the same amount of fuel and cost about the same to operate but the carrier believes the 717 will be easier to support.

"With the Fokker 100 we don't have problems now but we believe in future we'll have problems getting parts," the spokesman says. He adds while the 717 is no longer in production Mexicana is confident Boeing will continue to support the aircraft with an adequate pool of parts.

Click launched in 2005, initially operating 10 Fokker 100s which were formerly with Mexicana mainline. As Mexicana has handed Click more domestic routes in response to increased competition from local low-cost carriers, Click took on leases for 16 additional Fokker 100s.

The last six of Click's Fokker 100s were only delivered last year but the spokesman says these are on short-term leases. He says the first batch of Fokker 100 leases expire this year and the plan would be to begin taking 717s as these leases expire.

Click's strategy is to operate a single aircraft type on thinner routes. Mexicana, which operates Airbus A318s and A319s in two-class configuration, plans to maintain its presence on denser domestic routes such as Mexico City to Guadalajara, Monterrey, Cancun and Tijauana.

The spokesman says a decision has not yet been made on how to configure the 717s or on exactly how many 717s will be acquired. But he says Click, which now only offers economy class on its Fokker 100s, could opt to keep the two-class configuration currently on the Midwest 717s,

He adds "we're thinking of a number like 25" and in a few years "we will take a look at what product is available" before selecting a long-term solution for Click's fleet.