Rumor: Is United laying off 500 pilots this fall?

[Andy]

You must enjoy being a management lackey throwing fear grenades around. Why don't you go pick up some more open time for the company. Also, if you could please assist the company by doing voluntary junior man on all of your days off....that'd be great. Oh, I think we're also going to need you to come in on Sunday. M'kay, thanks!

P.S. Don't forget to sell all of your vacation!

I guess that'd make me a management lackey for a while now. Do you somehow think that any airline's immune to cutbacks with oil at these price levels? What happens to passenger traffic as the consumer cuts back on spending?
And I suppose that the halt in newhire classes across the entire industry is a management conspiracy?

 

[AWACoff]

Andy,

Yep, I guess so. If you believe in spreading management founded rumors, that would make you a management stooge. Do I think furloughs are possible? Yes, anything is possible. Do I think spreading the rumor of massive furloughs (which CAL management has not even mentioned) is playing right into management's hand? Yes. We could just as easily be hiring in the fall due to events that haven't unfolded yet. We have the most fuel efficient fleet in the industry right now. Neither you or I know what the future holds. Pilots whose fear generates unsubstantiated rumors can cause other weak minded pilots to become scared as well.

 

[Andy]

Andy,

Yep, I guess so. If you believe in spreading management founded rumors, that would make you a management stooge. Do I think furloughs are possible? Yes, anything is possible. Do I think spreading the rumor of massive furloughs (which CAL management has not even mentioned) is playing right into management's hand? Yes. We could just as easily be hiring in the fall due to events that haven't unfolded yet. We have the most fuel efficient fleet in the industry right now. Neither you or I know what the future holds. Pilots whose fear generates unsubstantiated rumors can cause other weak minded pilots to become scared as well.

I've been saying that there'd probably be industrywide furloughs long before hiring stopped and furlough rumors started.
At this point, management at various airlines are denying pilot furlough rumors. So I'm not following your logic on how these rumors are being generated by management. IIRC, the first CAL furlough rumors originated among the pilots.
Is it rocket science to look at where the economy and industry is currently and extrapolate where it's headed? All those nice airline profits? They're gone; going forward, we're looking at a post-9/11 scenario for airline revenue.

If age 65 hadn't have passed, I don't think that we'd be having this discussion right now; I think that the airlines would be able to reduce their headcounts in a controlled manner and avoid the bulk of furloughs.
Pilot headcounts are very likely to decrease in the next year at every airline except Southwest. If it doesn't happen through retirements, it's going to happen through furloughs.

 

[magrs]

AMR just announced another recall class for June 4th FWIW.

Maybe things aren't so bad!

 

[climbhappy]

i thought the slowdown at CAL was in the summer, not fall... wouldn't any of these so called furloughs be shortlived anyway?

 

[Andy]

AMR just announced another recall class for June 4th FWIW.

Maybe things aren't so bad!

They've got a different dynamic at AMR; senior pilots are retiring in droves due to the way that their pensions are tied to a 90 day lookback on AMR's stock price.
AMR will probably see high retirement and recall rates for most of the rest of this year.

 

[Dr.Hwang]

I had a CAL 737 assistant chief pilot on my flight a couple of days ago; He was coming back from a meeting in IAH; I asked him about a furlough; he said the following:

(all could be lies, but this is some info for consideration

Company REALLY does not want to furlough. They massively over furloughed after 9/11. Created extreme training expenses, they would want to avoid this time.

Company believes there are 50 pilot too many right now.

All 737 Classics will be retired much sooner then planned, NG deliveries should mitigate a lot of that loss.

No additional pilot hiring until Spring 2009, at the earliest.

Company hopes to manage those extra pilots by offering CLOA's, early outs (retirements?), additional VRF, and lines built to 55 hours...or whatever the minimum is.

Might be getting ATA 757-300's

Nothing official, but some info.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

One of my classmates at the Training Center said that's the rumor he heard from a friend - 500 pilots. Didn't mention fall.
At this point, things are changing very rapidly, so anything can happen this fall.
A straight furlough of 500 pilots in one big cut won't work; it'd practically ground the Airbus fleet. I can see them cutting 150 on the first cut while surplusing off of other fleets, but not 500 at one time.

The furlough numbers would be reduced by any other program they had to reduce headcount - leaves of absence, etc.
At this point, it's shaping up to be furloughs at a lot of airlines starting this fall. About the only airline that's safe right now is Southwest.

IF UAL were to furlough the bottom 500, what seniority date of hire would that be?

Just curious.

GP

 

[Uniform Shop]

i thought the slowdown at CAL was in the summer, not fall... wouldn't any of these so called furloughs be shortlived anyway?

The summer is our busiest time. We increase the frequency to our international destinations starting in May and June.

 

[contrail67]

I heard, I heard, I heard....nothing has been announced about furloughs of pilots at United.

 

[pilotgolfer]

I heard, I heard, I heard....nothing has been announced about furloughs of pilots at United.

I just heard that United was definately not going to furlough.

 

[Wiskey Driver]

I just heard that United was definately not going to furlough.

And what happens WHEN not IF there is a merger?? Too many airframes too many pilots! 737 headed out to the desert from here never to return and I am sure UAL is doing the same.

 

[waveflyer]

UAL announced that they're laying off 600 union workers (i.e. not just pilots). They haven't said for sure that they're laying off one pilot yet. We're supposedly parking around 30 airplanes after the summer. That's all anyone knows right now.

ualdriver

Hijack a bit- but since you had no response on the VA thread- Whether true or not- can you see how a young pilot might be scared right now? Do you need further proof of how mainline pilots have sold out young pilots?

Let me lay it out how it's worked for many of us. Do well in flight school- get good regional job- build flight time- be good enough to get to a major- and be rewarded after 9/11 w/ a furlough. Meanwhile, kid out of college is now senior on the regional list. Wait and wait- get recalled- but furloughs were so deep-b/c scope was relaxed SO MUCH- that by the time they get to the end of the list- and hire again- it's time for the next downturn.... It's a very similar story for those that never worked at a major- but want to- To give up all that seniority at a regional, just to get furloughed is insane. You end up punishing those that are good enough and ambitious enough to do the "right" thing (in your eyes) and get on w/ a major... You would call that not "whoring yourself out", right? Meanwhile all any of us that took that risk have got for doing the "right" thing is poverty wages first year-(a REAL whore job, b/c most of us have spent many years at "first" year pay) a handful, maybe, of pilots underneath us- and the real "possibility" of slinging gear again at a regional.

I'm starting to think of applying to VA in this environment.... Situation gets too bad and you might farm out the airbus anyway.

(btw- i'm responsible for my life- not bitter- but want to drive home this point every time i can...)

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Ya, that is way off point, I'd say hijack is correct. Good Luck.

 

[Jetjockey]

I heard all airlines are going to ground all their fleets and go to Amish horse and buggy. Anyone going to Amish buggy school in PA? I heard we could get grants for a buggy type rating.