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[Wesb737fo]

Flew 4 MKE legs today, and had a total of 18 open seats. All flights overlayed by AirTran and Delta. ATL and MSP. If that is our loads while getting smoked out, so be it.

Loads don't mean jack squat dude, it's the price of the ticket. The flight crews could work for free and you still wouldn't be profitable if your CASM is high and you can't raise ticket prices because you are in a steel cage death match with two other LCC's. Not trying to flame you here. What is your RASM vs. CASM? That's how you know if you're making money.

 

[SF340Guy]

Well, as bad at business as BB has proven he is, I assume the tickets were sold at a Buy 1 Get 5 Free Sale. So that being said, I am sure we lost between $800 and $100,000 per flight.

CASM on the 170 fleet, per the 10Q is 8.9c. 71 people to MSP needed to pay $29 per seat to make it profitible, that one flight. Did I do that right? (8.9*76)/71?

AirTran CASM per their own 10Q is 9.22c.

I don't know RASM.

On a different note. Does anybody know what is going on with the AirTran / Frontier code share? If AirTran is "going for the jugular" in MKE, how long will BB go before he breaks up with them in DEN? Not to say that would not hurt us as much as it would them, just wondering.

 

[Wesb737fo]

Well, as bad at business as BB has proven he is, I assume the tickets were sold at a Buy 1 Get 5 Free Sale. So that being said, I am sure we lost between $800 and $100,000 per flight.

CASM on the 170 fleet, per the 10Q is 8.9c. 71 people to MSP needed to pay $29 per seat to make it profitible, that one flight. Did I do that right? (8.9*76)/71?

AirTran CASM per their own 10Q is 9.22c.

I don't know RASM.

On a different note. Does anybody know what is going on with the AirTran / Frontier code share? If AirTran is "going for the jugular" in MKE, how long will BB go before he breaks up with them in DEN? Not to say that would not hurt us as much as it would them, just wondering.

Don't know for sure, but I don't see any reference to it on the AirTran website.( Usually there is a link to the F9 route map, not there anymore).

I don't know about going for "anyone's jugular" but it has always been the Tran plan to expand MKE. They feel they can compete with anyone. All kinds of issues going on.

The non fuel CASM at AAI is around 6.0 cents per seat mile. On the 737 (137 seats) that is about 8.22 dollars per mile. Ave. stage length is around 770 miles (maybe a skosh higher now) so doing the math the non fuel cost averages around $6400 for the typical leg. With fuel around $2.00/gal and average burn around 1400 gal ($2800). Total cost between $9000-$10,000 per ave. stage length. What is not apparent is the value of fuel hedging, collaring etc.etc. when ballparking profitability.

What is apparent is that by comparing both companies non-fuel CASM's and our pay rates, you and I could receive $25/ hour pay raises and barely budge those numbers. Do the math. The front end on my typical flight averages around $200/ hour. So a $25 dollar an hour pay raise for both guys up front barely budges our non fuel CASM. You guys are somewhere around half our rate (not flaming just informing) so bottom line is we are both underpaid.

As far as competing, with both companies total CASM's around 9 cents per seat-mile, the difference comes down to generating revenue. With 30 to 40 less seats on the bigger E-birds compared to the 717 or 737, it is harder to make the same dollars per leg where we compete directly. Which is why I assume the F9 buses are now in MKE. Now with SWA coming in, it gets harder for both of us.

 

[Homer Jay]

Flew 4 MKE legs today, and had a total of 18 open seats. All flights overlayed by AirTran and Delta. ATL and MSP. If that is our loads while getting smoked out, so be it.

I just returned from my annual visit to Wisconsin to visit the in-laws and the word that Midwest is not TRULY Midwest anymore is starting to spread. I hope that BB get's his a$$ handed to him. GO GET 'EM AIRTRAN!

 

[Wesb737fo]

Since I have a head cold and nothing better to do, I took a look at the MKE to MCO, RSW, TPA legs for AAI tomorrow. All the direct flights are fairly full.

Looking specifically at the three MCO flights (2 737's, 1 717) loaded at 60%,100%,100% respectively. With the average fares (2 wk adv. purchase) around $137 the revenues generated are approx. 11K, 16K, and 19K respectively ( this doesn't include the ancillary stuff or bus. class). Obviously a swag at the ave. ticket cost, but a conservative one anyway.

The cost to operate (based on .06 cents per seat mile and $2/gal. jet A) runs around $11, 800. That means a total profit for the three directs around $11,000 (not bad for mid Jan flights). Bottom line. There is money to be made in MKE to Florida but to compete you'll need more F9 birds to generate the revenue since the E-planes can't do it direct. How many did they move from DEN?

It'll be interesting. I'll have to take a look at some of the E-190 routes where we go head to head.

 

[FSIGRAD]

Since I have a head cold and nothing better to do, I took a look at the MKE to MCO, RSW, TPA legs for AAI tomorrow. All the direct flights are fairly full.

Looking specifically at the three MCO flights (2 737's, 1 717) loaded at 60%,100%,100% respectively. With the average fares (2 wk adv. purchase) around $137 the revenues generated are approx. 11K, 16K, and 19K respectively ( this doesn't include the ancillary stuff or bus. class). Obviously a swag at the ave. ticket cost, but a conservative one anyway.

The cost to operate (based on .06 cents per seat mile and $2/gal. jet A) runs around $11, 800. That means a total profit for the three directs around $11,000 (not bad for mid Jan flights). Bottom line. There is money to be made in MKE to Florida but to compete you'll need more F9 birds to generate the revenue since the E-planes can't do it direct. How many did they move from DEN?

It'll be interesting. I'll have to take a look at some of the E-190 routes where we go head to head.

E-planes cant do it direct? I have flown ORD-MIA a hundred times in a 170.

 

[maxblast72]

There is no doubt the Airbus, 737, or 717 have better cost structures to do low yield flights to Florida from the midwest part of the country than the E-170/E-190. Bedford will figure this real soon as he realizes SWA and Airtran aren't going anywhere and don't need to raise ticket prices to make money.

 

[Wesb737fo]

E-planes cant do it direct? I have flown ORD-MIA a hundred times in a 170.

I guess I didn't mean can't do it. Can't make as much money doing it would probably be a better way to say it. Which is why it was logical see F9 planes doing MKE-MCO for Midwest*.

 

[CopilotDoug]

it will only be a matter of time before the MKE pax discover that a 717 is bigger inside than the latest and greatest ERJ.

 

[Cardinal]

There is no doubt the Airbus, 737, or 717 have better cost structures to do low yield flights to Florida from the midwest part of the country than the E-170/E-190. Bedford will figure this real soon as he realizes SWA and Airtran aren't going anywhere and don't need to raise ticket prices to make money.

Huh? Bedford "realized" this out of the starting gate, and has put A319s on MKE-Florida since November 5th. Further, a Frontier flight has the exact same CASM as an Airtran flight, and both are significantly lower than SWA, ergo neither of us should need to "raise ticket prices to make money" assuming a rational market.

Airtran is a bit bigger in ATL than F9 is in DEN, but there is a practical limit to cross-subsidization, so good luck with that. SWA has us both beat if they're willing to burn cash across multiple focus cities.

 

[IdRtherBsailing]

So you guys are getting bonus's while you have pilots on the street? Thats interesting, seems the good will thing to do would be to pool it all together and hand it out to those not flying.

 

[StaySeated]

I have to scratch my head when I read all of these posts hoping "republic goes out of business".

You do reallize that RJET is actually six airlines now. Three regionals that operate as a fee for departure (Chatauqa, Republic, and Shuttle America), one regional that is a wholly owned sub (lynx), and two major/national/low cost carriers (Midwest and Frontier).

Why would anyone want six pilot groups to end up on the street?

The only chance any of the Midwest guys have of retaining even a shred of their hard earned seniority is for Republic to prosper.

Frontier continues to fly at industry average narrow body wages and they have essentially set the bar on how to emerge from Ch. 11 with your original contract 100% intact.

Republic's current fee for departure side of the house has a CBA that is amendable and they were in the middle of Section 6 negotiations prior to Bedford's shopping spree. There is no denying that their current CBA is a total piece of sh1t, on every level. If the SLI actually gets implemented there will need to be a representation drive and a new CBA will be negotiated. When that happens RJET will be the first and only airline with everyone on one list, RJ's thru narrow bodies. It will be the only airline that exists where you can be hired as an entry level 121 pilot and eventually move on to an Airbus, and keep your longevity. This is a bad thing?

Mainline/legacy flying has been decimated for over a decade while a half dozen fee for departure carriers have gobbled up capacity that was once flown by 737's, dc-9's, md-80's etc. Mesaba, Skywest, and several other regional's have expanded greatly at the expense of legacy carriers, why the hard-on about republic? There are 400 Midwest pilots on the street, meanwhile UAL alone has lost 4000? Where is the outrage?

Hopefully airtran, southwest, and frontier will be able to prosper in mke until the next upswing in the economic cycle.

 

[Wesb737fo]

Hey seated, I re-read most of the posts and not that many refer to you going out of business. Most of mine regard number crunching for competition. I think a few former Midwest Airline guys might be a little upset but can you blame them.

 

[maxblast72]

Hopefully airtran, southwest, and frontier will be able to prosper in mke until the next upswing in the economic cycle.

Actually not really pulling for an economic upswing. In what Obama calls the greatest recession since the Great Depression, Airtran will announce their 2009 results in 3 weeks. Due to low fuel prices and Airtran's competitors finally pulling down some their unprofitable capacity, Airtran is going to announce a 2009 net profit in the $120-130 million range and operating margin in the 7-8% range. While the 2009 operating margin is not a record (2003, another recession year with large legacy capacity pulldowns, was the year of Airtran's best operating margin), the net profit will be a record for Airtran Airways.

I am just betting that Airtran and Southwest are the big players in MKE in 5 years. If Republic/Midwest/Frontier are out the picture, that means more growth for Airtran and Southwest. It is not personal, just business.