Rising Oil/Gasoline prices

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Here is an article in FORBES, not some left-wing magazine, that explains that high oil prices are here to stay, because of basic supply and demand constraints.

http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/2005/03/11/cx_da_0311topnews.html
"Oil Crises Now And Then
Dan Ackman, 03.11.05, 9:30 AM ET
...
In real terms, oil prices were higher in 1981 than they are now. But they had fallen by half by 1986. As the early 1980s prices were caused by OPEC and politics, they eventually fell. Many oil prognosticators today say oil is more likely to stay high as the price is a function of ordinary supply and surging demand, especially in India and China. Indeed, this morning, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for China's oil demand this year by 100,000 barrels per day to 500,000 barrels."

CLiff
YIP

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Here's what the CEO of ChevronTexaco had to say, compliments of Investors Business Daily:

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=26458788&brk=1

"Oil is no longer in plentiful supply. The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending," ChevronTexaco Chairman David O'Reilly said in a recent speech."

Cliff
YIP

 

[LearLove]

here is and email I got from a friend, can anybody confirm this?


Gas rationing in the 80's worked even though we grumbled about it. It
might even be good for us!


The Saudis are boycotting American goods.


We should return the favor.


An interesting thought is to boycott their GAS.

Every time you fill up the car, you can avoid putting more money into the
coffers of Saudi Arabia. Just buy from gas companies that don't import their
oil from the Saudis.

Nothing is more frustrating than the feeling that every time I fill-up the
tank, I am sending my money to people who are trying to kill me, my family,
and my friends.

I thought it might be interesting for you to know which oil companies are
the best to buy gas from and which major companies import Middle Eastern
oil :

Shell............................ 205,742,000 barrels
Chevron/Texaco........ 144,332,000 barrels
Exxon /Mobil............... 130,082,000 barrels
Marathon/Speedway... 117,740,000 barrels
Amoco...........................62,231,000 barrels
If you do the math at $30/barrel, these imports amount to over $18 BILLION!
Here are some large companies that do not import Middle Eastern oil:

Citgo......................0 barrels
Sunoco...................0 barrels
Conoco...................0 barrels
Sinclair....................0 barrels
BP/Phillips..............0 barrels
Hess.......................0 barrels ARC0.0
barrels


All of this information is available from the Department of Energy and each
is required to state where they get their oil and how much they are
importing.

 

[enigma]

Okay for those of you who have studied this, what about bio-diesel? I read an article a couple years ago that it could be made from soy bean oil for $1.75/gal. It went on to say that since mogas was less than that it wouldn't be done.

Now that mogas is passing $2/gal is the $1.75 for bio-diesel still accurate and will it happen?

http://www.greasel.com/

Just be aware, once enough people figure this out, it too will become no cheaper than diesel at the pump.

enigma

 

[AcroChik]

An Internet Fiction

"thought it might be interesting for you to know which oil companies are
the best to buy gas from and which major companies import Middle Eastern
oil..."

According to easily available facts and figures published by the United States Department of Energy, the only companies listed in that internet chainletter that are not directly importing oil from the Middle East are: Sunoco, Hess and Sinclair.

However, the problem a consumer faces, trying to participate in a boycott of Middle Eastern oil (even if such a boycott were meaningful) is that a great deal of finished refined gasoline is traded on the spot or forward markets among companies trying to obtain the best price efficiency while also satisfying demand.

Thus, while, in example, Sinclaire does not itself import oil from the Middle East, it may well have purchased either futures of, or spot market refined products originating from there. This is simply how the petro-refining market works. It is a massively complex vertically and horizontally integrated trading environment.

You can have absolutely no assurance of the origin of the refined gasoline being pumped into your SUV. Chemically, there is no way to tell, once the product is refined (there are regional grades and chemical signatures of regionally extracted petroleum). A gasoline retailer who tells you he is not selling Middle Eastern product in order to get your money is lying. He or she simply doesn't know.

I wish the notions printed in the fictional chain letter were true. But, sadly, they aren't. I'd love to buy only American gasoline. But, that's impossible the way the market is organized. British diplomats and British commercial interests began the organization of the petroleum market in this way during and immediately after WW1. Remember Lawrence of Arabia? See the map illustration below:

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/Petroleum/redline.htm

Over the intervening decades, changes in consumption patterns and volumes and merging~demerging~remerging of companies has created a fully integrated industry in which raw products pumped out of the ground by one company come out of the retail pumps belonging to another company half a world away.

If we want to boycott the financiers of terrorism, lets simply burn less fuel!

 

[Vector4fun]

In some smaller markets, just about every drop of gasoline in a geographic area comes from a single refinery. Texico, Mobil, Shell, and Mini Mart all from the same tanks. Oh, they may toss in a few additives for each particular brand at some point, but it's still all the same gasoline from the same tanks at the same refinery.

Face it, if it's a chain letter on the internet, there's probably an 80% chance it's untrue.

 

[dmspilot00]

the peak oil concept for several years now, and I pay a lot of attention to the globabl oil situation.

Peak oil...the idea that we will run out of oil, causing the civilized world to end? It's not going to happen. Peak oil is a classic example of a "theory" that leaves out basic economic principles.