Rising Oil/Gasoline prices

[mar]

A sober discussion (and slight hijack)

Cliff, sorry if this strays too far.

414flyer, here's the deal about ANWR from someone who lives in Alaska, has been there, and used to make his paycheck directly from North Slope oil (and who considers himself 'leftist'):

It's not doom and gloom.

It's a matter of cost vs. benefit.

And I consider this relevent in any economic issue whether it's ANWR, Iraqi liberation, or health care.

Look, you could pave over ANWR with Teflon and rebar and it still wouldn't be the end of the world. In fact, given time, more time in units than is usually useful to humans, ANWR would eventually recover.

ANWR is gonna be here a hell of a lot longer than we are, the question is: What kind of world do you want to live in while we're here?

The question for leftists is: Are we asking enough questions?

Or are we just slaves to the addiction blindly following our cravings?

The bottom line is that the questions are more complicated than 'where are the caribou going to calve?'

Either you accept the complexity and deal with all the issues or you just drill.

No doom and gloom. Just a cost. And a benefit.

 

[Corona]

People are not going to walk and bike around the city as long as there is oil somewhere to be found.

Actually, I do both. I have every where I've lived; Orlando, FL and Fairbanks, AK and quite a few places in between. If more Americans left their SUVs at home and walked or rode bikes, they might find their seats fitting better when they airline to a vacation.

We've heard all the pipe dreams about Alaska before...when they first wanted to drill the North Slope. The theory then was that Alaska would supply the US with all the oil we needed. That may have been true for the 1950's, but it sure ain't now. "Oil forecasts" for the North Slope were greatly exaggerated, just as likely as today's forecast for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Another handy little item that is missed by both sides of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling question is that several years ago the petroleum industry wanted to ship a lot of Alaskan oil to Japan! I don't know if they were successful, but if they were, it would doubly increase their profits on Alaskan oil. First, they would make more money in Japan, and then they would drive up prices on the US west coast from the artificial scarcity.

Several places we might get more oil are: Iraq, if things ever settle down, Afghanistan, if things ever settle down, and several former Soviet states, again, if things ever settle down. Saudi Arabia is a wild card in the future, as is (of course) Iran and Venezuela.

Basically, what we've done is pin the foundation of our economy on a highly toxic compound that mostly comes from areas of the world where future access is hardly guaranteed. Brilliant, huh?

Naturally, as previous posts stated, we will have increased competetion from China and India. I don't think most Americans are aware of just what is happening in China, but their current growing economic and military sectors are going to have a HUGE effect on the world.

I haven't had much hope the US would tackle the oil problem here at home with Republicans running things, but I've been pleased that a group of (real) conservatives have suddenly realized that our dependence on foreign oil makes a large security risk for our country. Well, better late than never.

C

 

[Geigo]

Okay for those of you who have studied this, what about bio-diesel? I read an article a couple years ago that it could be made from soy bean oil for $1.75/gal. It went on to say that since mogas was less than that it wouldn't be done.

Now that mogas is passing $2/gal is the $1.75 for bio-diesel still accurate and will it happen?

 

[Corona]

Okay for those of you who have studied this, what about bio-diesel? I read an article a couple years ago that it could be made from soy bean oil for $1.75/gal. It went on to say that since mogas was less than that it wouldn't be done.

Now that mogas is passing $2/gal is the $1.75 for bio-diesel still accurate and will it happen?

Biodiesel is awesome, though it can never completely replace our current use of fossil fuels. There just ain't enough land to grow the stuff. Biodiesel, BTW, is better for your diesel engine than fossil fuels. Unfortunately, here in the Northwest, biodiesel is upwards of $3 per gallon. Not sure what part of the country you're getting the buck-and-three-quarters/gallon, but that's a good deal.

Trivia: Were you aware Rudolph Diesel originally designed his engine to run on 100% peanut oil?

C

 

[sqwkvfr]

Just a cost. And a benefit.

I've gotta agree with Mar here...while drilling in ANWR could boost domestic production by 1 million barrels per day and while the complete extend of the reserves in Alaska are unknown --despite what some would have you think-- the simple fact is that extraction and transportation from middle east countries is still far cheaper than bringing it in from Alaska --where extraction costs are MUCH higher--.

It might make a difference, but not very much.

What's my solution? Well, thanks for asking! I think that we need to allow companies to build more refineries --there hasn't been one built for 25 years-- and we need to decide on a national, year-round blend.

The oil companies complain about the costs associated with changing over every sping/fall to summer/winter blends and making special fuel for certain areas.

Hopefully that'll take an excuse away from them an they'll at least be forced to be more creative when telling us WHY gas prices are so high.

However, this is merely a temporary solution...

 

[Geigo]

Biodiesel is awesome, though it can never completely replace our current use of fossil fuels. There just ain't enough land to grow the stuff. Biodiesel, BTW, is better for your diesel engine than fossil fuels. Unfortunately, here in the Northwest, biodiesel is upwards of $3 per gallon. Not sure what part of the country you're getting the buck-and-three-quarters/gallon, but that's a good deal.

Trivia: Were you aware Rudolph Diesel originally designed his engine to run on 100% peanut oil?

C

I did know that suprisingly enough. So at $3/gal is that pure bio or a mix? What would happen if the economy of scale was larger? I know it couldn't replace it, but if enough people went that direction I'm sure it would make an impact on demand wouldn't it? I'm in Kansas in the middle of farm country, lots of beans here.

There was a guy from GA on another forum I follow that said he does the bio-diesel from waste oil for $.50/gal....The cheap bast...make that frugalness in me thinks that might be a good idea! Ya, that's it find an old VW that gets 40mpg and make my own...

 

[sqwkvfr]

Biodiesel is awesome, though it can never completely replace our current use of fossil fuels. There just ain't enough land to grow the stuff. Biodiesel, BTW, is better for your diesel engine than fossil fuels. Unfortunately, here in the Northwest, biodiesel is upwards of $3 per gallon. Not sure what part of the country you're getting the buck-and-three-quarters/gallon, but that's a good deal.

Trivia: Were you aware Rudolph Diesel originally designed his engine to run on 100% peanut oil?

C

I used to be a big believer in BioDiesel and Ethanol until someone on this board pointed out that when you factor the amount of energy required to manufacture these two, the benefit came to zero. In other words, it takes 50 BTUs of energy to manufacture 50 BTUs of Biodiesel or Ethanol. (these aren't correct numbers and I'm certain that the energy expended is measured in a unit by another name or by another method, but hopefully you get my point)

Also, Ethanol actually absorbs water (READ: condensation that forms inside of pipelines and tanker trucks) and doesn't travel well. It would have to be locally produced.

Now, technology could change this, but right now, it leaves us in the same place where we started.

 

[HMR]

Bio-Diesel is going to get more popular. Out here on the west coast we've got kids from a Santa Barbara high school auto shop class tooling around in a car that runs on french fry oil. A guy in Ojai, CA is selling kits that make any diesel vehicle able to run on leftover restaurant grease. A couple guys have been going coast to coast- FOR FREE- stopping at fast food places and picking up their waste fry oil.
Here's an early example http://biodieselamerica.org/biosite/index.php?id=39,40,0,0,1,0 .

 

[Corona]

I did know that suprisingly enough. So at $3/gal is that pure bio or a mix? What would happen if the economy of scale was larger? I know it couldn't replace it, but if enough people went that direction I'm sure it would make an impact on demand wouldn't it? I'm in Kansas in the middle of farm country, lots of beans here.

There was a guy from GA on another forum I follow that said he does the bio-diesel from waste oil for $.50/gal....The cheap bast...make that frugalness in me thinks that might be a good idea! Ya, that's it find an old VW that gets 40mpg and make my own...

The $3/gal. is a 50/50 mix, I believe. Yes, volume does make a difference, but we still are limited in how much land can be set aside for production. Some of those beans gotta be eaten!

Some people around here do make the biodiesel from waste oil, and it is very cheap. But, again, it cannot replace the fossil stuff in terms of volume.

I have occasionally considered getting an older Mercedes and converting it to biodiesel. The newer cars don't even need conversion, but I can't afford one yet.

C

 

[Corona]

I used to be a big believer in BioDiesel and Ethanol until someone on this board pointed out that when you factor the amount of energy required to manufacture these two, the benefit came to zero. In other words, it takes 50 BTUs of energy to manufacture 50 BTUs of Biodiesel or Ethanol. (these aren't correct numbers and I'm certain that the energy expended is measured in a unit by another name or by another method, but hopefully you get my point)

Also, Ethanol actually absorbs water (READ: condensation that forms inside of pipelines and tanker trucks) and doesn't travel well. It would have to be locally produced.

Now, technology could change this, but right now, it leaves us in the same place where we started.

True; the energy exchange is a problem. In fact, it is probably higher than the numbers you guessed at (I don't know myself). I don't think biodiesel is a cure for all ills yet, but it can help the problem if only a little bit.

I definitely agree w/you on the ethanol debacle. Ethanol takes another step even beyond biodiesel in that you have to distill it, which takes a lot of energy. Also, it has a reputation for corroding your vehicles' innards.

I think a logical goal is to start thinking of energy in terms of portability: For example, your house does not need portable fuel, but your car does. A nuke plant is also not portable, but the electricity it produces is, if stored in batteries. This has been the Achilles' heel of electric cars; they cannot store enough to be competitive w/fossil fuel cars. Airplanes have the most pressing need for portable -and condensed- energy.

This will be not-at-all surprising coming from a left-winger, but hemp is one of the most efficient plants in terms of producing oil. It will grow almost anywhere, in almost any type of soil, with little fertilizer or watering needed. Time to legalize!

C