Regional Hiring Over the Next 6-12 Months

[Rally]

Burn him at the stake! He's a witch! Burn, witch, burn!

Yea he's one of those, the economy never picked up after 9-11 people.

This time its gonna be oil and mortgages bringing us the gloom. hmm

OMG Regionals might start their mins at 1000 TT again.

 

[lindsaya99]

PSA will continue to hire 30-40 per month until the spring. (According to a couple of Ground School Instructors) That is primarily to cover the loss of the remaining J4J captains. After they have gone back to Mainline hiring will slow down considerably. Only enough new hires to cover attrition. There is no growth projected (not even rumors). Upgrade time has dropped in the last six months from about 5 years down to 3. It remains to be seen what effect any flowthrough/preferential hiring agreement might have on the attrition rate. I think we will have a better handle on that around April or May.

 

[ex j-41]

I would like to agree on the slow economy...but everytime i try to commute i have trouble getting a seat. People are flying. Airplanes are full. As long as it is cheaper to fly then drive we will have full airplanes.
Go to the FAA.gov and see the statistics for Pilot Certificates issued. And look back 10 years.
We are on a steady decline after 911. Average age for pilots went from 40-45. We have the same number of ATP's then we did 10 years ago, but more people are flying.
Eventually the airlines will pay for thier greed. More pilots will take better paying jobs overseas and the regionals will have to transfer flying back to the majors. Or what should happen is anything over 50 seats should be a mainline airplane...but that is just wishfull thinking.

 

[ROSWELL41]

I feel that regional hiring will slow considerably. Age 65 combined with a slowing economy does not bode well for anyone. Just get in before the music stops, thats the best advice I can give.

 

[Salukipilot4590]

I'm glad I have a class date next week...

 

[amcnd]

SkyWest has a RJ Newhire clas with 33 people starting the 7th also a E120 calss with 20 in it on the 7th. We are taking 4 Delta 200"s and moving them to the United side. We are fat FO's for JAN but starting FEB we are short.

 

[time builder]

This is probably closer to the truth. The million dollar question though is consolidation in 2008.

I'm with you. With the right combination of economy woes and consolidation, there could be a lot of RJ's parked until a brighter day. It's already happening with Delta without consolidation. If United finds a willing partner to consolidate with, look out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Look at the numbers of flights Majors vs. Regionals before and after 2001, especially at Delta and United hubs. Granted they parked a bunch of 727's that will likely never return to service, but just imagine if they brought all those 757's back on line. They could easily reverse the trend and park a bunch of RJ's.

 

[FirstMate]

This is probably closer to the truth. The million dollar question though is consolidation in 2008.

The whole outcome of the Open Skies agreement should be an interesting factor in regards to consolidation.

 

[CFI2766]

ASA is mighty fat on the ATR for FOs. As of Dec, we had nearly 50 FOs for less than 25 lines. WAAAAYYY too many FOs for the amount of flying to be done on an airplane that everyone thinks is going away.

(Now, 15 FOs are going to the jet or upgrading with a 1 May effective date....)

 

[ken]

Pilots needed

Here is a article about the need for pilots.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-flyboys0208jan02,0,7112403.story?coll=orl_mezz

 

[strega7]

but just imagine if they brought all those 757's back on line.

Who parked their 757's?

 

[time builder]

Who parked their 757's?

Ever been to Victorville, CA? Research it. It was mostly Delta and United (a ton 727s, but I was surprised at the number of 757s when I visited a couple years ago).

 

[strega7]

Research it. I visited a couple years ago.

Might want to look now.

 

[time builder]

update me

 

[time builder]

http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=5617443&nseq=51
Here's a photo, again, a couple years old, if you have newer info please share.

Also, I take that back about the 757's, from this angle, at the time of the picture, they look like 767's. Still, if they are still there, my point remains, there are large planes sitting in the desert that could be used domestically to replace regional lines.

A single 767 could be used to replace 2 737s on a congested domestic route, and those 2 737s could replace a few RJs. Especially if you've got consolidation in the picture.

Again, if you've got more updated information, please share, I'm working off 2 year old information to support my theory.

 

[dbchandler1]

They should bring back the L-1011's, now that was a plane!

 

[Papa Woody]

A single 767 could be used to replace 2 737s on a congested domestic route, and those 2 737s could replace a few RJs. Especially if you've got consolidation in the picture.

Yeah, but....

the issue is crew wages.

Why would an airline use a mainline 737 when they are practically flying the RJ for free, given current wages?

 

[Tarzan]

The real issue remains options for the customer. Could Y airline consolidate? Sure, that goes without saying. But if they were to consolidate, they save a few bucks here and there but....

X airline decides to offer more opportunities to fly into a certain city. Business travelers will go where? To the guy with more options. And there are an awful lot of travelers out there doing it on the company dime.

RJ's if you will forgive the misnomer, are there for frequency mainly. They also help fill those 777's going to London and China. And as stated before, the labor costs are very low by comparison. The genie is out the bottle here. Business will continue to change as time goes by. This is just more change in the grand scheme of things. We may not like it, but there ain't much we can do about it.

 

[time builder]

Yeah, but....

the issue is crew wages.

Why would an airline use a mainline 737 when they are practically flying the RJ for free, given current wages?

You guys are right. The two biggest appealing things about RJs are the minimal crew wages and the ability to create more departure time options for the customer.

However, with regional pilots demanding more money and all the concessions the majors took the difference isn't near as much as it was 8 years ago.

Additionaly, you should really look at the stats on fuel burned per seat mile, the CRJ is blown out of the water by the 737.

I'm not trying to be negative here. More Major jobs are good, and I'm not forcasting mass furloughs or anything, just that the pilot shortage could be offset by consolidation among other things. Ie., if you're planning on using the pilot shortage as leverage to get your company to pay more and treat you better, they're not out of cards to play.

 

[EWRJ0225]

havent posted on here in a while! I think the hiring at the regionals will continue at a slightly slimmer pace than the current status! My reasoning is most of the attrition at regionals isnt legacy carriers! Thats where age 65 will have its biggest affect! Now even with the age 65 rule I dont see most guys working until they are 65?!?!? we'll see who knows? Most regional guys seem to be going to airtran, jetblue, corporate gigs, leaving the industy! I know there is a big chunk going to the legacy carriers but there are other places these guys are going too!

In response to all this RJ vs. 73, regional vs. mainline BS! I definately think we will see a shift back to much larger airplanes here in the mid future! The whole reason we have RJS is just for frequency and labor cost and eventually...i say 5 to 10 years, oil cost will be more than labor costs! Because now regionals are demanding a little better pay and with the "shortage" eventually it will have to! Most kids are getting smarter now days and realize that a 100,000 dollar investment isnt worth 20 grand a year!

And if theres one thing these white collar bonehead CEOs do well its look at graphs and math on paper and think with their numbers instead of logic and instinct! Once fuel hits 125 to 135 a barrell! We will see a lot of band aids beeing placed on chainsaw wounds ie. Pay Cuts, parked airplanes, reduced schedules etc. etc. until they have to revamp their whole game plan and reduce frequency and bring in larger equipment! plain and simple, OIL will cost more than labor! Because Oil is only getting more expensive and labor has consistently gotten cheaper!

After all they have to keep the stock prices high just long enough for them to cash out get their options and bonuses and leave the place in shambles, thats the main problem with modern american big business! Maybe we should make our CEOs sign contracts that say they have to stay for 30 years before they can collect their stock options! i guarantee you the airline industry would flourish!

Have fun!