Regional Growth

[generaltso]

Which regionals will experience the most growth over the next 3 years? In other words if you wanted to fly somewhere where you could upgrade in 3 years instead of 5, where would you go?

Best Growth:
Mesa
Chautauqua
TSA
Pinnacle

Stagnant:
Comair
ASA

Anyone care to add any others?

 

[Birdie]

Comair will probably get the 30 DO328 jets, plus the confirmed DCI orders.....that's hardly stagnant.

 

[145FO]

Continental Express will be stagnant for at least 3 years. We still have 400 Continental pilots that have to be recalled before we are back to where we were pre 9/11.

 

[generaltso]

Why do I keep hearing upgrade at Comair is 5+ years then? How many firm orders do they have?

 

[Treme]

Comair will probably get the 30 DO328 jets, plus the confirmed DCI orders.....that's hardly stagnant.

Care to place a friendly wager?

Even if Comair got the 30 Doorknobs (without pilots? unlikely) and a further 30 airplanes from DCI between now and 2007 we're only talking about an additional 600 pilots (10 per plane) over 5 years.

Thats only 300 Captains.

If GeneralTso gets hired tomorrow and is, lets say, number 1801 and then the company hires those 600 pilots he would be 1801 of 2401... still around 600 away from upgrade.

My opinion is that anyone coming to Comair with an expectation of a quick (less than 7 - 10 years) upgrade is not basing their decision on reality.

 

[wms]

ASA has confirmed delivery dates for 15 CR7s in 2004. Plus our share of the 45 phantom RJs. I think they will be divided among SKW, CA and ASA. We're short on DFW CA's, and with FO's upgrading, we'll need more pilots eventually.

ACA is not interested in the phantom jets, CHQ would have to develop a CRJ dept, and Mesa will have their hands full with either a take-over or covering IAD for UAL after ACA goes on their own.

With SKW mgmt, and CA/ASA pilots not caving to DCI, DAL will just have to put those planes where they make sense.

Not trying to hi-jack the thread to the DCI issues, just stating why ASA/CA will not be stagnant.

 

[belchfire]

Mesa and Chitaqua may well have the best
growth in number of operations...for real
"growth" we will have to see what kind of
contract the Mesa pilots are able to get,
and how long they are willing to strike for
to get it!

For stagnant, you forgot Corporate Airlines:
Frozen pay, no new fleet types, no new
codeshare partners...missed the
RJ revolution completely...passed 'em by like
the industrial revolution passed a peasant
village in Outer Mongolia! And noone
seems to know why they are hiring!

 

[othello]

A birdie told me that BiGSKY is in the running for the 30 DO328 jets. I don't think many people can undercut there payrates. In a recent investor confrence call MAIR CEO said that BigSky was not purchesed to fly Metro's in EAS markets and that they were going to grow and be a JET regional.

We'll see seem like a lot of people have their hand in the pot for the DO328, dont count out BS yet.

 

[General Lee]

I don't see Comair or ASA getting any of those phantom 45 jets, becasue Delta doesn't really have the cash for new ones. Comair may get those 30 Dojos----and that will give Delta another chance for yet another "one time charge" in taking over those leases. Hey ASA guys, don't get fooled into believing that you will get any of the 45---you would have to take huge paycuts (not a pay freeze) to help buy any of those. I see someone with cash on hand buying those--like Skywest or Chataqua.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[amcnd]

Eagle is starting to turn the corner. 42 Jets in 04' and 38 in 05', pluse 25 option CRJ-700 mightin come 04-05 making a total of 105 aircraft. AA' new scope now lets us have about 600 RJ's at the end of 05' we should be at 250-280 range. 400+ new hires next year. But dont expect to upgrade in 2 years. More likley 6 years for the RJ and 4-5 for T-prop. If hired next year.

 

[generaltso]

I guess most upgrades will come from new growth rather than attrition. Back in the day the regionals were seeing both growth and attrition... hence the 1-2 year upgrades.

However I see more and more people going to the "good" regionals... sacrificing upgrade time for quality of life. I guess the viewpoint is that it will be a while before the majors hire again. But look at Southwest growth over the next couple of years.

 

[Bluestreaker]

Mesa and Chitaqua may well have the best
growth in number of operations...for real
"growth" we will have to see what kind of
contract the Mesa pilots are able to get,
and how long they are willing to strike for
to get it!


Mesa STRIKE?????
That has to be the funniest thing I've heard... ummmm..... EVER!!!!!

 

[JJJ]

What kind of growth are you talking about? number of new airplanes or a percentage growth.

Pinnacle has around 72-73 CRJ's now and will have 129 by the end of 2005. That would make 56 more airplanes and 77% growth in the next 2 years.

 

[ERJpusher]

CHQ would have to develop a CRJ dept

No one ever said these new RJs were Canadairs. Bedford just announced 3 weeks ago that we asked to bid on these jets and that a "competitive" bid was submitted. We are supposed to know by December 31.

 

[asapilot]

I don't see Comair or ASA getting any of those phantom 45 jets, becasue Delta doesn't really have the cash for new ones.

No one ever said these new RJs were Canadairs

I have to call bullsh!t to both of these. General, normally I don't disagree with most of the things you say, but you contradict yourself a bit here. Normally you're touting how Delta's got cash and they're in better financial shape than most carriers, but now they don't when it comes to DCI RJ growth? Even is that were so, we've seen that Delta has been successful in obtaining credit/lending. Why would we put in a bid for something we can't afford to get? Oh yes...we do agree on this point, the company wants to squeeze us for less money/contract extensions.

You guys must not have read my post about the ASA State of the Company meeting. I asked Skip this very question after Drew got done telling us no one had any money for new aircraft. Skip said that Drew didn't know what was really going on and that they had told Bombardier that they no longer wanted to exercise any of the future options we had. Instead, they asked Bombardier(yes ERJpusher, Bombardier, not Embraer) to make a better offer which they did which allowed Delta's BOD to approve purchase of said 45 RJs for further growth. Now, that being said, I'm not so naive as to believe that we get the whole story. Until 45 aircraft show up somewhere, I'll still be skeptical, but the signs point to this happening and it happening with CRJs. I don't know, who can say. I don't think we'll get 45 at ASA even if we did do all the things they're asking of us, but I also don't believe they'll just be handed over to the lowest bidder.

 

[wms]

No one ever said these new RJs were Canadairs.

According to the info we've received, the reason for this opportunity is because Bombardier agreed to a financing deal. I doubt Bombardier would finance jungle jets. Also, the great financing is an offer too good to refuse, which is the reason DAL is willing to spring for them. Few people believe DAL is in as bad a shape as they say they are. They are crying broke to get concessions, good financing, deferals on pension payments, etc. They're playing the current economic picture for all it's worth, and will for as long as they can to get all the bargains they can.

We all do the same thing, looking for distressed sales, freebies, etc. If you want a scholarship to put your kid in college, you look poor. If you want good financing to buy a house or a car, you look rich.

 

[ATR-DRIVR]

This whole 'phantom' RJ thing is ONLY a way to get us to stop the contract talks. If DAL has no place for these to go until someone takes a pay cut, that would be the stupidest business strategy ever. They know exactly where they are going and are just trying to get someone to 'take the bait' and give in on pay. That way they can tell mainline - "See, everyone is giving back, you need to also". Complete smoke and mirrors. Divide and Conquer. Period. Don't let them bluff you guys, General. They want 30%? Give them 3.

 

[Anaconda]

Even if Comair got the 30 Doorknobs (without pilots? unlikely)

why is it unlikely?

 

[ERJpusher]

"Delta has asked us to bid on a new 45 aircraft contract for EMB-145 equipment. The bids are due on 12-15 and the decision is supposed to be made before 12-31."

Direct quote from Bryan Bedford's 11/21/03 weekly letter to the company.

FWIW

 

[jobear]

Quote
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A birdie told me that BiGSKY is in the running for the 30 DO328 jets. I don't think many people can undercut there payrates.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok so DAL is goning to let someone who's Never flown an DO328 much less any RJ fly for them? I don't think they would do that.
However I saw JO press release stating they are entering into to talks with Delta and to be quite frank it scared the crap outta me.

Jobear
non mesa 1900 pilot

 

[porra]

What about Colgan...
I hear the upgrade there is less then one year...
If you could put up with the SH@T over there...
Remember they have no contract and I hear you have to dish out about $18K for PFT #@!%$
The reason why the upgrade is less then a year is because nobody wants to stay there, first chance they have they punch-out.

 

[surplus1]

I don't see Comair or ASA getting any of those phantom 45 jets, >>>> Comair may get those 30 Dojos

For what it's worth, which isn't much, I don't see Comair getting any of the 45 or the Do-jets either. Not because Delta doesn't have the money, but because I don't think Comair pilots will take the concessions DAL wants.

On the other hand, maybe Comair pilots should accept 20% less than Mesa pilots and then we could get ALL of Delta's DCI flying, including Skywests' and CHQ's and we could "bid" on the flying done by Pinnacle and Mesaba too. Wouldn't it be just great to do that so that everyone one foaming at the mouth for growth can be happy? It probably wouldn't work though, because Mesa, CHQ, Pinnacle and Skywest will just underbid us again so they can upgrade and fly for USAirways and United or maybe even American or Delta. I heard all those "majors" will be hiring again right after Christmas --- 2010.

We live in interesting times.

 

[46Driver]

To play Devil's Advocate, what is the reason for "Growth"?

1) One is pay - no kidding....

2) More importantly, the requirements for Southwest, JetBlue, AirTran, Fed-Ex, etc all have one thing in common - PIC time. 5000 hours of SIC in a RJ mean absolutely nothing. Until the high paying career jobs (and that is not mean to demean Comair, ACA, etc) get rid of this requirement, you are going to have F.O.'s fighting tooth and nail for PIC time to get to "the show." If you get the big boys to change their hiring policies, then you might be able to slow down the race to the bottom.

Back to my Master's paper....

 

[Looking4Traffic]

Christmas 2010

Surplus1:

I haven't laughed that hard in awhile.

I'm with you 100%. I don't think the pilot group at CMR will ever regret saying no to hotel-maid-wages. Even if the growth goes elsewhere and some other guy gets to sit in the left seat of an RJ for $45K, CMR guys can hold their heads high and say: "**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** it, we're professional pilots, we worked our asses off to get here, and our value is greater then just 'another place to cut costs.'"

If the regional industry wasn't growing, if CMR wasn't making money or if regional pilots were overpaid, then we could have a conversation with management. Since none of those things are true, we should all wait until Christmas 2010.

By then, there will be a cure for cancer, "affirmative action" will mean hiring caucasion males, and mandatory ritirement will be raised to age 90 so we'll still make a bunch of money!

 

[surplus1]

To play Devil's Advocate, what is the reason for "Growth"?

1) One is pay - no kidding....

2) More importantly, the requirements for Southwest, JetBlue, AirTran, Fed-Ex, etc all have one thing in common - PIC time. 5000 hours of SIC in a RJ mean absolutely nothing. Until the high paying career jobs (and that is not mean to demean Comair, ACA, etc) get rid of this requirement, you are going to have F.O.'s fighting tooth and nail for PIC time to get to "the show." If you get the big boys to change their hiring policies, then you might be able to slow down the race to the bottom.

Back to my Master's paper....

I hope that Master's paper is in a non-aviation field. By the time this is over (at the rate we're going) there aren't going to be any "high paying career jobs" and the low paying regional jobs will be as worthless as a gig on the Tyson Foods chicken plucking production line. The PIC we are rushing over the precipice to acquire won't get you to "the show" for the "run" will be over and the theatre closed and the only thing "playing" will be re-runs of class B "shows" in back alley theatres. What you gain won't be worth the gaining.

There seems to be little doubt that the race to the bottom will be won by all of us. The wisdom of the hour sure doesn't appear to reside in a majority of regional pilot groups and failing mega airlines. Aspiring to AirTran or Jet Blue used to be for those who "didn't quite make it", now it seems to have become the glory standard.

Fascinating.

PS. If 5000 hours in the right seat of an RJ really means nothing, how is it that 300 hours in an F-16 means so much?

 

[46Driver]

I hope that Master's paper is in a non-aviation field.

PS. If 5000 hours in the right seat of an RJ really means nothing, how is it that 300 hours in an F-16 means so much?

I don't make the rules, I am just stuck with them. The SIC jet time means little, and my helo time isn't even allowed on the application.

Yep, that Master's is certainly in a NON-aviation field and its getting very near time to use it - although helo jobs are appearing on the market and paying well - who would've thought a helo job would pay more than an airline job.....

PS: If you think getting bought out by Delta was bad, try being sold to MESA...........