Question for Delta Pilots

[redflyer65]

General,

5-10 years from now..who's going to have more growth?

Delta who already goes around the world, or SW who only goes to 38 of the 50 US states? (PS, we have ETOPS planes now)

Please answer...

 

[whymeworry?]

The topic came up because united usair, FedEx, spirit and foreign carriers will all be snatching up pilots for one to two years before delta really starts to crank up their pilot hiring. Pinnacle/mesaba pilots 80% of them probably want to work for delta so on paper it works since pinnacle flys for only delta. But that's on paper. In real life it will never happen

Wait, this is because of a supposed pilot shortage? There will never be such a shortage in this country. Maybe in some Asian countries, but US? Never. And Delta will never have a problem attracting qualified aviators.

 

[whymeworry?]

General,

5-10 years from now..who's going to have more growth?

Delta who already goes around the world, or SW who only goes to 38 of the 50 US states? (PS, we have ETOPS planes now)

Please answer...

Sorry, I tend to agree with the General here. Even if SWA can grow internationally, there's only so much traffic to capture. Contrary to popular belief, SWA isn't exactly a LCC. I've said this all along, now that the hedge bubble has burst, SWA is going to have to roll up their sleeves and compete (fairly) like everyone else. I wish SWA well, I admire their business model and how they truly respect employees. But they should've used the profits from years of successful fuel hedging to better position the airline going forward (more modern and diversified fleet for starters), rather than undercut pricing just to steal market share. As they are learning now, customers have no brand loyalty. That market share is fleeting.

 

[General Lee]

General,

5-10 years from now..who's going to have more growth?

Delta who already goes around the world, or SW who only goes to 38 of the 50 US states? (PS, we have ETOPS planes now)

Please answer...

How about the World and the US? Sounds like DL is adding more domestic mainline flights (thanks to your 88 717s coming this way), and adding INTL routes. DL will get 88 717s in 3 years, and you will get how many NEW planes during that time, while you lose the 88 717s at the same time? You could get 100 new planes within that time, but lose 88 717s, which means a net gain of 12. See what I mean? Unfortunately all of the AT 717 guys have to get trained onto your 737s (old and new, with a FREE type rating too!) That is called stagnation. And, people on FI need to know that. And you're late to Hawaii using those ETOPS 738s. Even GK has figured that out. Maybe you will too someday. But again, people need to know the differences before they throw in apps.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

How about the World and the US? Sounds like DL is adding more domestic mainline flights (thanks to your 88 717s coming this way), and adding INTL routes. DL will get 88 717s in 3 years, and you will get how many NEW planes during that time, while you lose the 88 717s at the same time? You could get 100 new planes within that time, but lose 88 717s, which means a net gain of 12. See what I mean? Unfortunately all of the AT 717 guys have to get trained onto your 737s (old and new, with a FREE type rating too!) That is called stagnation. And, people on FI need to know that. And you're late to Hawaii using those ETOPS 738s. Even GK has figured that out. Maybe you will too someday. But again, people need to know the differences before they throw in apps.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Thanks for the NON-answer General. Your talking 3 years? Please. I'm talking 5-10.

Through 2018 - Total firm orders 224 with options for an additional 92.
Through 2024 - Total firm orders 350 with options for an additional 175.

That's a little more than 12 additional planes General.

Whyme....we are competing very well with the current hedges we have. Gary has made some significant changes to bring in more revenue and it's going to continue to show...quarter after quarter.

RF

 

[General Lee]

Thanks for the NON-answer General. Your talking 3 years? Please. I'm talking 5-10.

Through 2018 - Total firm orders 224 with options for an additional 92.
Through 2024 - Total firm orders 350 with options for an additional 175.

That's a little more than 12 additional planes General.

Whyme....we are competing very well with the current hedges we have. Gary has made some significant changes to bring in more revenue and it's going to continue to show...quarter after quarter.

RF

Non answer? How about 787 orders? They come by 2020. There are rumors of a widebody order this quarter, I have heard possibly 15 773s(?). With the current profits and ancillary revenue gains, I have a feeling there will be some orders. 100 739ERs are already coming to replace some older 757s, Dom 767s, and older 320s. (Just like your old 733s and 735s will be replaced eventually). I would think those old 737s of yours will be directly replaced with 737max planes. I do believe though those 88 717s and their leases were extended through Boeing to 2024. Thanks for those, btw. The mainline flying ratio has been increased, and almost all of the INTL widebodies have gotten interior overhauls with new lie flat seats, so I don't see a reduction in INTL flying either, especially in 5-10 years. I did read from the system chief pilot that at a minimum, over the next 10 years, there will be a need for 3500 newhires, and the VP of Flt Ops said it could be as high as 7000 newhires, in the next 10 years. How about you guys? Every guy that leaves SWA means one upgrade, and one newhire. You know that isn't the same at a legacy, right? It's good to get this out in the open. The truth will set you free, Red, it really will.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Data]

Is that .5% growth for you guys? Giving away 88 717s and replacing them with older 733s and 735s that now can't be retired, but must stay longer, while deferring 30 738s. You yourself can't fly INTL flights for a couple more years due to your RES system and lack of ETOPS. (Besides Caribbean and Mexico, flown by AT). There is nowhere you can go but contiguous 48 for the next couple years. You are stuck. Where again will you expand in the US? You pulled more flights out of PHL and SEA, and cut total flights at ATL. Looks like you are the one "not going anywhere", route wise and seniority wise. I just think potential newhires or interviewees would want to know that.... Oh, and tell me again how taking YOUR 88 717s is not growth? You can't Red, you just can't. Bye.


Bye Bye---General Lee

You better hop over to the 'other' forum and help your fellow FOs out, this is what they're talking about...

"Actually with the current suffocating stagnation/capacity discipline, guys hired in 2001 are looking at a 20 to 25 year upgrade! 14 years would be nice. And I'm not talking about the one guy who slips into a Detroit DC9. I'm talking about average Joe Pilot."

or

"That is correct - I expect to reach 22 years at DAL at retirement without sitting in the left seat (2000 hire). I won't sit NYC M88 A (or NYC or DTW 717 A) just to sit in the left seat. That's OK, I came to terms with that a long time ago (after my return from furlough)"

 

[dalad]

Non answer? How about 787 orders? They come by 2020. There are rumors of a widebody order this quarter, I have heard possibly 15 773s(?). With the current profits and ancillary revenue gains, I have a feeling there will be some orders. 100 739ERs are already coming to replace some older 757s, Dom 767s, and older 320s. (Just like your old 733s and 735s will be replaced eventually). I would think those old 737s of yours will be directly replaced with 737max planes. I do believe though those 88 717s and their leases were extended through Boeing to 2024. Thanks for those, btw. The mainline flying ratio has been increased, and almost all of the INTL widebodies have gotten interior overhauls with new lie flat seats, so I don't see a reduction in INTL flying either, especially in 5-10 years. I did read from the system chief pilot that at a minimum, over the next 10 years, there will be a need for 3500 newhires, and the VP of Flt Ops said it could be as high as 7000 newhires, in the next 10 years. How about you guys? Every guy that leaves SWA means one upgrade, and one newhire. You know that isn't the same at a legacy, right? It's good to get this out in the open. The truth will set you free, Red, it really will.


Bye Bye---General Lee

No wide body orders are expected at DAL. As on period. The number of wide bodies we have are more than we need right now. The only thing saving some from being parked is that we are "parking" them to have the lie flat seats installed. If, and that is a BIG if, 777's are ordered they will replace the 744's.

 

[DTW320]

"That is correct - I expect to reach 22 years at DAL at retirement without sitting in the left seat (2000 hire). I won't sit NYC M88 A (or NYC or DTW 717 A) just to sit in the left seat. That's OK, I came to terms with that a long time ago (after my return from furlough)"

So, let me get this straight... the guy whines that he won't hold Captain for decades (implies that he "can't")... then qualifies it by saying MD88 CA in NYC or 717 CA in NYC or DTW doesn't count? Junior 88 CA in NYC is a very late 99 hire, junior 737 and 767ER CA are late 97 hires..who knows how junior 717 CA NYC will go.

It's fine to bitch about slow progression, it's another thing to look for sympathy on your upgrade time when you are choosing to ignore several very legitimate left seats.

 

[relief tube]

Before I ask the question, I just want to clarify that I don't think this will happen, have not heard rumors that it will, I have just heard people talk about it and I am curious to your views.
Would you Delta pilots be supportive if Delta purchased Pinnacle and the MEC's worked out a straight staple of the pinnacle pilots to the bottom of your list with the exception that for 5 years no current pinnacle pilot could lose their captain seat (to protect the lifers at pinnacle that didn't want to move on) Or
would you support a staple with no protections for pinnacle pilots at all.
Or would you not support either.

in either situation, pinnacle pilots would be on probation for 2 years and would all have to within those first 2 years have to fly a trip with a delta check airman.

Thanks just curious

compass already got an absolute socialized handout, if this ******************** happens to anyone else I will kick someone in the teeth.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Anybody hired in the late 99s and 2000's will probably be stagnant for 3 years before any REAL movement happens......by movement, I mean 777 or 330 seats or Captain chairs on the narrowbodies.

GL can cheerlead all he wants but that is the stone cold lead pipe truth.....

We codeshare all of our flying away and this is what we get. Today an email came out that the 767 category is shrinking (selling 757s) and all those guys are gonna be "rightsized" to fly narrowbodies.....737's and below.

Like I said, no lyin.....it's alllllllll roses at the Mothership Delta

 

[nimtz]

Anybody hired in the late 99s and 2000's will probably be stagnant for 3 years before any REAL movement happens......by movement, I mean 777 or 330 seats or Captain chairs on the narrowbodies.

GL can cheerlead all he wants but that is the stone cold lead pipe truth.....

We codeshare all of our flying away and this is what we get. Today an email came out that the 767 category is shrinking (selling 757s) and all those guys are gonna be "rightsized" to fly narrowbodies.....737's and below.

Like I said, no lyin.....it's alllllllll roses at the Mothership Delta

Nice to see a shred of the reality. In this career it's far better to be skeptical of 'best case' growth plans that blowhards like GL spot. He's definetly one of those types that after two hours into cruise you have to finally say "STFU with the airline talk."

 

[General Lee]

Anybody hired in the late 99s and 2000's will probably be stagnant for 3 years before any REAL movement happens......by movement, I mean 777 or 330 seats or Captain chairs on the narrowbodies.

GL can cheerlead all he wants but that is the stone cold lead pipe truth.....

We codeshare all of our flying away and this is what we get. Today an email came out that the 767 category is shrinking (selling 757s) and all those guys are gonna be "rightsized" to fly narrowbodies.....737's and below.

Like I said, no lyin.....it's alllllllll roses at the Mothership Delta

Wait a second, that 767 domestic category is going away (it's been going away for years) but the flying is being transferred to a 767 ER (INTL) category. There will be some 757s being parked, but they are the oldest 757s NWA had, and they are ready to go. Some older 767 Dom planes also will go, along with about 40 of the oldest A320s out there (bought in late 80s or early 90s). Those 100 737-900ERs will replace one for one those older planes. And, the 320 pays less than the 739, so many pilots will get a pay raise, going up to the 739. Yes, some will get a paycut, while others get raises. Also, add 25 MD90s (with upgrades vs 17 DC9s leaving), and the upgrades on the 717 left seat, and people will stay on the 767 FO seat as people leave to upgrade. The sky isn't falling.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Nice to see a shred of the reality. In this career it's far better to be skeptical of 'best case' growth plans that blowhards like GL spot. He's definetly one of those types that after two hours into cruise you have to finally say "STFU with the airline talk."

Reality for you is that you are extremely unhappy with your airline and the "agreement in principle" (?), and the knowledge that it may be awhile until anything happens. I really hope you get a better deal than the rest of us, but so far, that doesn't look good. Good luck!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

GL, spin it how you want....

A "new" 737-900 that will never climb above 310 is the future as this airline shrinks.....

Lessee 737s to replace 757s and 717s to replace 320s (9s aren't gone yet...). This is a payout no matter how its served.

I GET what management is doing....I agree with most of what they are doing, but no wide body orders while we take downgrades as they right size is the truth we gotta swallow.

 

[nimtz]

Reality for you is that you are extremely unhappy with your airline and the "agreement in principle" (?), and the knowledge that it may be awhile until anything happens. I really hope you get a better deal than the rest of us, but so far, that doesn't look good. Good luck!


Bye Bye---General Lee

TA will be out in a few weeks. With ALPA and your YES vote as driving forces you are right that it will not be a good deal. But unlike you we actually have WB's on order.

 

[Furloughed80]

It is impossible to win the "my airline is better than yours" argument on FI.com. Not sure why we always fight about this...

 

[General Lee]

TA will be out in a few weeks. With ALPA and your YES vote as driving forces you are right that it will not be a good deal. But unlike you we actually have WB's on order.

Supposed 4th quarter this year widebody order, plus still have 787s on order. Can't wait to hear about your TA and then your SLI. I hope it works out like our SLI and not one with USAir anamosity. Good luck!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

GL.....Jim Graham was in JFK and said no wide body orders through 2013 citing Europe weakness (i call it too much codesharing) after he was asked directly.

The 787s aren't a real order anyway......yay a decade old airplane to be delivered in (gasp) 8 more years.....

 

[General Lee]

GL.....Jim Graham was in JFK and said no wide body orders through 2013 citing Europe weakness (i call it too much codesharing) after he was asked directly.

The 787s aren't a real order anyway......yay a decade old airplane to be delivered in (gasp) 8 more years.....

The widebody order would supposedly be for 773s, which wouldn't go to Europe anyway. What does Europe have to do with that? Even if there isn't an order in the immediate future, where have most of our widebodies been in the last couple years? Getting mods done in Asia, for the lie flat seats, etc. The capacity was pulled back, with the line values. Eventually all of that will come back, which will help.

Look, you seem to be a glass half empty guy right now, and that's oh-kay. We have a good 3 year contract, we will have movement via the 717s and MD90s coming, and there are a lot of retirements also upcoming. It's an eventual reality. Guys like Nimitz are really sorry sacks, who are upset that their airline's continue to give little or no progress with their contracts, and probably not as good of a deal that DL pilots got (no 100 seater option (717s). That guy will never be satisfied, but I believe we have good things coming up, and a heck of a lot better than the other legacies.



Bye Bye---General Lee