Piper down in Lake Michigan

[VampyreGTX]

Initial report is out:

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_id=20050428X00522&key=1

So he did communicate with ATC about the fuel starvation. He was also off on his location estimate in his 911 call (not by much though), telling the operator that he was 5 miles east of Milwaukee airport. The report places him 6.3 miles off the coast, so about 8 miles from the airport, though I'm not sure how they arrived at the location. It doesn't mention anything about his stop in Michigan and I have seen no mention or quotes from anyone that he fueled up there. What is the distance that plane can cover on full fuel with no winds?

 

[FlyLady]

It doesn't mention anything about his stop in Michigan and I have seen no mention or quotes from anyone that he fueled up there. What is the distance that plane can cover on full fuel with no winds?

The plane was a Piper Archer II. On full tanks, you can expect AT LEAST 4 hours flight time. Airspeed is around 120 kts. Where he was crossing is around 75-80 nm from shore to shore. Like I said before: Unless there was some sort of fuel leak or malfunction, there is not way he should have run out of fuel if he would've fueled up just prior crossing the lake. Even if his groundspeed was down to 50 kts due to headwind, he still should not have run out if he would've fueled up just prior crossing the lake. And if the problem was no FBO open, then he should have waited........

get-home-itis.....

 

[VampyreGTX]

I hope it wasn't get-home-itis. But a flight from the departure airport to milwaukee is about 4.5 hours at a GS of 120.... and that is filing direct. Sounds like right at the fuel envelope, with no reserve. Since they probalby won't raise the plane, I doubt we'll know if it was fuel starvation or a malfunction.

 

[SWA/FO]

the only time I have ever crossed Lake Michigan was in a Falcon 20 or a 737. You would have 10 minutes if you were dropped off in the middle of the lake in August.

 

[funky]

How prevalent are life rafts @ FBOs up there? I would think that FBO near the lakes should at least be able to rent one for very little cost.

I personally would never fly over ANY body of water beyond gliding distance, without a raft. Especially down here in Florida. Too many sharks for my comfort. Tough break for the kid. I wonder if he thought he would make it back easily because he did the eastbound trip no problem? Very sad.

 

[TheChief]

What are your chances of surviving in lake michigan in the summer? 1/2 hour or so...it can't be too much warmer?

 

[FlyLady]

What are your chances of surviving in lake michigan in the summer? 1/2 hour or so...it can't be too much warmer?

Right now Lake Michigan temp is around 45 deg F. The surface temp CAN and DOES get to 75 deg F by late August. BUT it all depends on where you measure. Normally the water is warmer towards the shore and cooler out deeper. Surface temp is warm, bottom temp cool, even in late summer. BUT when the winds blow strongly from the shore for several days, the lake "turns over", literally. And you end up with 50 deg water in shore and 75 deg water 15 miles out. The warm surface water is pushed out and the cool bottom water replaces it.

The Great Lakes are pretty amazing and should be respected. This pilot did not respect the danger of Lake Michigan.

 

[VampyreGTX]

How prevalent are life rafts @ FBOs up there? I would think that FBO near the lakes should at least be able to rent one for very little cost.

I don't know of one FBO out here that has life rafts for rent. (even the flying club I use does not have them, you have to provide your own flotation gear.

 

[migio]

lake temp

I have never experienced temps in the lake(west side MKE area) anywhere near 75F and i lived in Milwaukee for over 25 years.If it has ever gotten that warm,it probably happened during our warmest summer.I believe most of the time the temps at the shores dont exceed 60F,even during august.So,during the summer,if you were to ditch,you wouldnt last long,even with a life preserver,the water is just too cold.Even flying across the lake in a twin is a little daunting,unless your starting to cross one of the shores up at the flight levels,say upper 20's low 30's.Just my .02

 

[WMUSIGPI]

How prevalent are life rafts @ FBOs up there? I would think that FBO near the lakes should at least be able to rent one for very little cost.

I personally would never fly over ANY body of water beyond gliding distance, without a raft. Especially down here in Florida. Too many sharks for my comfort. Tough break for the kid. I wonder if he thought he would make it back easily because he did the eastbound trip no problem? Very sad.

You are more likely to find in the rental agreement a clause prohibiting flying beyond gliding distance of land than an fbo that has rafts to rent in the Great Lakes area. Every place I ever rented from in Michigan had that restriction for its single engine rentals. None prohibited the multiengine rentals from crossing the lakes.

 

[Donsa320]

I hope it wasn't get-home-itis. But a flight from the departure airport to milwaukee is about 4.5 hours at a GS of 120.... and that is filing direct. Sounds like right at the fuel envelope, with no reserve. Since they probalby won't raise the plane, I doubt we'll know if it was fuel starvation or a malfunction.

The airplane was located today and will be raised in a day or two, according to local TV reports. It is in 50 ft of water.

There is a lot more info coming out but I'd best wait for some official statements.

~DC

 

[UnAnswerd]

What are your chances of surviving in lake michigan in the summer? 1/2 hour or so...it can't be too much warmer?

Make no mistake. You can and will become hypothermic in 85 degree water, assuming an exposure time of several hours. Water can be lethal, regardless of its temperature. Your best insurance besides a raft is a life-preserver. Even in very cold water, they will buy you a large amount of time. Without a life preserver, you die when you lose conciseness. With one, that's not always the case, and it buys you time much needed time when people are searching for you.

 

[TonyC]

Without a life preserver, you die when you lose conciseness.

So, when you're long-winded and talk a lot and don't stop thinking of ways to re-state what you've already previously stated before, you're doomed? Or was that too brief, too?













Sorry - - I couldn't resist!

 

[FN FAL]

I have never experienced temps in the lake(west side MKE area) anywhere near 75F and i lived in Milwaukee for over 25 years.If it has ever gotten that warm,it probably happened during our warmest summer.I believe most of the time the temps at the shores dont exceed 60F,even during august.So,during the summer,if you were to ditch,you wouldnt last long,even with a life preserver,the water is just too cold.Even flying across the lake in a twin is a little daunting,unless your starting to cross one of the shores up at the flight levels,say upper 20's low 30's.Just my .02

To each his own, lots of twins have gone in right after rotation because of the good engine.

I can think of two Democrat politicians that died in twin crashes in recent times...two engines didn't save them.

People take off and land in singles over densly populated urban areas without even giving it a thought...lose one there and you get a telephone pole, building or semi up side the head. Flying at IMC at night over land in a single? What's the difference between that and a lake?

 

[FlyLady]

I have never experienced temps in the lake(west side MKE area) anywhere near 75F and i lived in Milwaukee for over 25 years.If it has ever gotten that warm,it probably happened during our warmest summer.I believe most of the time the temps at the shores dont exceed 60F,even during august.

I've spent many years fishing on Lake Michigan (IL/WI border). The surface temp of the water does indeed get up past 70 deg, every year in late summer.