George, to answer your question a little more specifically:
We have been hiring about 150 a year the last 3-4 years. The top 150 guys have been here 4-7+ years (some 10 to 14) and are (with a handful of exceptions) all Captains.
The next 100 guys (150-250) have been here 4-5 years and are almost all Captains.
The next 100 guys (250-350) have been here 3-4 years and half are Captains, half have the time and are awaiting upgrade. This is the seniority range the upgrades have been going to the last few vacancies
The next 100 guys (350-450) have been here 2-3 years (including myself) and a few here and there are Captains, either by hiring into the seat or upgrading as an occassional fluke because more senior people didn't yet hold the time or didn't want to bid away from the Saab (and have to go to DTW or MSP). Most of these guys now hold the time and are awaiting upgrade.
The last 200+ guys are all f/o's. Some hold the time, some don't. How many of these upgrade before we get the last of the jets presently allocated is dependent on who holds the time and submits the bid. We're currently running a staffing ratio of about 4 crews per a/c. 129 a/c = 516 Captains, 516 F/O's (assuming even staffing. If we get more jets, you can adjust those numbers using that 4 crews per a/c staffing ratio). So assuming everyone at the top of the list will hold the time and upgrade, most everyone hired from here on out is looking at sitting as an f/o for several years.
THAT'S why F/O pay is on the top of the list for the next contract (our own CEO agreed that our F/O's are woefully underpaid); if it's tied to 60% of Captain pay for longevity, a 1st year F/O would start out around $30k and would go up from there (depending on what we negotiate next contract). Not great, but certainly liveable for most people as a first step after instructing or one of the schools like GIA, etc.
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My esteemed General Lee (I AM a Southerner after all), the answer to your question depends on who you ask.
A lot of our senior guys have said "No" to this discussion before (I'm still trying to figure out why).
If they put up fences (seat locks) on everyone for 3-5 years so that no furloughs or seat displacements would occur, made it TRULY one list, and we got the associated pay and scheduling rules that go with NWA's contract, I don't see why ANY pilot would say no.
It's a win-win for the pilot groups, a lose-lose for management, so as someone said previously, don't bet the farm on it.