Mugs said:
Good post pipejockey:
This is exactly what I see coming. Imagine say 10 or 15 years from now, an LCC pilot for a successful carrier that has gradually built up his work rules and pay through the collective bargaining process. What will they have done? They will have turned themselves into a prime target to be undercut. Then the analysts can talk about all the feather bedding in their contracts, which were really the cumulative result of many small gains over a long period of time. It is possible that airlines will become recyclable, just like the stuff you set out on the curb each week. Once the costs, especially on the labor front, become too great over time it will become necessary to trash the operation and start over. Just remember, there will always be a freshly minted FlightSaftey Academy graduate drooling over your jet. The money won't matter to a single 24 year old that needs nothing more than beer money to survive. It is the jet pilot Sky King adventure they will be looking for. At that point, everything that pipejockey pointed out will come into play.
I could not disagree with you more.
Undercuting someones salary from another airline has NOTING to do with the sucess of an airline, or what you should be earning at your airline. If your theory is correct, then why was it in the late 1990's did Delta, United, American, Northwest all sign industry leading contracts, all the while the pilots of Southwest, Vanguard, Midway, Legend, Sun Country etc. all were earning cents on the dollar in comparison.
They were all undercutting the Majors, so I guess the Major Pilots should have taken pay cuts to survive. They did not and in fact took HUGE contract improvements, and yet 90% of the non-majors I mentioned still went out of business.
Its about keeping ALL business model costs (CASM) within your business model revenue (RASM) and not allowing the white elephant to die. Its not about pilot salaries, or what I make, or some future airline pilot group makes. And BTW - what other carrier pilots make is irrelevant unless you're trying to justify higher pay during negotiations, or until they are trying to justify lower pay during financial distress.
As an example.... why would USAir really have to look at AirTran pay?? What does our pay have to do with their business model. Under your theory, everyone could just match Southwests pay, and bingo... success. Well... guess what... that isn't happening, and now Southwest pilots are some of the best compensated and they still make money.
USAir needs to focus on what it costs them to operate and go from there, and that isn't pilot salaries, and they should have done that years ago.