While I agree with you about artificially restricting pilot supply with the 1500hr rule and issues with resupplying the bottom, that has not yet manifested itself. I am of the mindset that it will have an impact, but will not be a nail in the coffin.
As for the red text...one has to look at the supply of pilots in the entire industry, not just within 121. The issues you have with 121 can be alleviated by going into business aviation. Pilots enter that segment for its own merits, and move between segments because they seek different things each segment offers.
Additionally, I fully expect crappy 135 operators (and crappy 91 operators) to start hiring sub-1500hr pilots at crappy pay...exchanging the turnover that occurs once those pilots hit 1500hr and move on to a 121 job for decreased pilot costs. Pilots will still be added to the total pool, they'll just come and go in a different way.
When the pool between all segments isn't big enough to cover demand, THEN there will be scarcity.
We're not there yet.
Wasn't expecting such a rational and thought out response. To be honest, I was expecting more of what the guy after you posted.
Regarding the 1500 hour rule, there is a very clear inflection point based precisely around the implementation of that rule. There was no pilot shortage this time last year, and within months of the new rule, the shortage hit hard, and it hit exactly where the rule would be most damaging. The impact of the rule is not in question.
But your next point is 100% spot on. Anybody doing low end 135 or 91 flying just got free pilots. This is why Great Lakes is taking 10 seats out of their 1900s. There is a glut of 250 hour pilots begging for anything to get them to 1500 hours. Problem is those jobs are a fraction of what they were in the past. Cancelled check flying is gone, small 135 operators are much thinner, and flight instructing bows to the law of diminishing returns (~125 hours dual per student to create a 250 hour pilot means 10 students worth of instruction to reach the 1,500 hours. Those 10 students then need 100. Looking at it another way, for every one flight instructor that becomes a regional pilot, 9 will have to drop out.)
One area that is growing it seems is Geo-mapping. Not sure exactly how big it's going to be, but I've had several friends leave for safety concerns. They were replaced in a day.
You say we're in a shortage and may later be in a scarcity, but not yet. I agree with where you're coming from on that, but actually think it's the opposite. I believe we're in a temporary scarcity now and a long term shortage is coming. We simply can't find pilots because the supply line has been severed by two years. However, if that is not addressed (along with several other factors including starting wages, FAR117, the next wave of retirements, polarization of seniority) we will have a long term shortage. It's more semantics than anything else, and I'm saying the same thing you are in essence.
The 1,500 hour rule has created a 2 year problem that is proving catastrophic. However, once the pilots make it through that 1,500 hours somehow and the supply hopefully starts to correct itself, then we'll be dealing with the issue that nobody has even started that process. Who wants to be a pilot now when you have to fund or work for minimum wage up to 1,500 hours when you could have started your seniority process at 500 hours?
Pilots aren't dummies. The time value of money is forefront in the career decision making process. By introducing the 1,500 hour rule, they've not only delayed their seniority list movement to sustainable pay, they've essentially removed the last two money making years of their career.
