Pilots Union Says There Wouldn?t Be a Pilot Shortage if Pay Was Higher

[mu2]

Livin'thesim,

That's describes me to a T. I love to fly but I got out because of money, QOL and job security. Increase these 3 things and I'll gladly come back!

 

[fofornow]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that inpart why we pay dues to the union? To increase our pay and quality of life? Just think how bad it would be without the almighty union... (sarcasm)

 

[bvt1151]

Think of all the guys who have gotten out of the profession who would gladly get back in for the right money.

I know a few guys who have thousands of hours and enough 121 time to be viable, who would leave their good jobs if the pay was right. They never got over the flying bug, but had to leave the industry to feed their families.

This is a problem of the seniority system, not pay. There's no way you could prop up all of the junior rates of the pay scale to bring these guys back. The seniority system requires they start at the bottom, regardless of experience. That is what needs to be fixed if you want to include them back into the 121 industry, but we both know that will never happen. They are out forever, and that's the way ALPA likes it.

Shortage does not equal scarcity.

This is very intriguing to me. Could you elaborate your thoughts?

 

[BoilerUP]

This is very intriguing to me. Could you elaborate your thoughts?

A scarcity of pilots (or widgets) means there are not enough pilots (or widgets), period.

A shortage of pilots (or widgets) means there are not enough pilots (or widgets) at the current price level. Raise the price, the shortage goes away.

This is why United, Delta, and US AAirways have 10k resumes on file (to say nothing of SWA and FedEx) and Great Lakes, Expressjet and Mesa are struggling to recruit and retain flight crew.

 

[General Lee]

A scarcity of pilots (or widgets) means there are not enough pilots (or widgets), period.

A shortage of pilots (or widgets) means there are not enough pilots (or widgets) at the current price level. Raise the price, the shortage goes away.

This is why United, Delta, and US AAirways have 10k resumes on file (to say nothing of SWA and FedEx) and Great Lakes, Expressjet and Mesa are struggling to recruit and retain flight crew.

Those 10K resumes could be from the same people, having multiple resumes or applications to each of the big 3. As the big 3 start filling classes, the other airlines (Regionals and LCCs) had better raise rates and benefits or risk paying more for upgrade and newhire training to replace the outgoing poached pilot.

But seriously, there might be an "actual" shortage due to upcoming retirements. Crew Resources at DL just sent out a memo stating full capacity hiring (50 per month) has been approved through April, 2015. From there they believe it will continue at the max for the next 10-20 years. Years! And that's just DL. How about the other 2 legacies? There looks to be a big scarcity eventually.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Freebrd]

But but Jenny says Deltahhhh is getting a mess of them 717s! That should be good huh.

 

[General Lee]

But but Jenny says Deltahhhh is getting a mess of them 717s! That should be good huh.

Uhhhhhhhhh, what? Well, 88 717s means over 600 new Capt positions, and 600+ newhire positions. All are well paying, so probably not a scarcity of pilots for them. But, you only need to go East, the Far East. ATR72s are calling your name....



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BoilerUP]

There is no industry-wide pilot shortage; there most certainly is no scarcity of pilots.

COULD there be an industry-wide pilot shortage in the future? Probably not but maybe, anything is possible. National scarcity of pilots? Doubtful as fewer, larger airplanes fly routes less frequently...but again, I suppose anything is possible.

Any shortage will start on the bottom of the industry (regionals as currently seen, crappy 91 and 135 gigs, etc) and will filter upwards as it becomes more severe.

Will major/legacy airlines, FedEx/UPS and Fortune 500 flight departments park airplanes because they can't find enough people to fly them in the next decade? Absolutely, positively not.

 

[General Lee]

There is no industry-wide pilot shortage; there most certainly is no scarcity of pilots.

COULD there be an industry-wide pilot shortage in the future? Probably not but maybe, anything is possible. National scarcity of pilots? Doubtful as fewer, larger airplanes fly routes less frequently...but again, I suppose anything is possible.

Any shortage will start on the bottom of the industry (regionals as currently seen, crappy 91 and 135 gigs, etc) and will filter upwards as it becomes more severe.

Will major/legacy airlines, FedEx/UPS and Fortune 500 flight departments park airplanes because they can't find enough people to fly them in the next decade? Absolutely, positively not.

The recent 1500 hour rule change will make it tougher for people to get jobs, plus high cost Universities like Riddle will keep most out on cost alone. There is also a Worldwide shortage. The ME Big 3 have tons of big Widebody orders, plus SE Asian LCCs are expanding with hundreds of narrowbody A320 and 737 orders. China, Korea, and even Japan are short on pilots too. Wages will go up worldwide or expansion plans won't fly....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BoilerUP]

The recent 1500 hour rule change will make it tougher for people to get jobs, plus high cost Universities like Riddle will keep most out on cost alone. There is also a Worldwide shortage. The ME Big 3 have tons of big Widebody orders, plus SE Asian LCCs are expanding with hundreds of narrowbody A320 and 737 orders. China, Korea, and even Japan are short on pilots too. Wages will go up worldwide or expansion plans won't fly....

Yup.

Again...shortage vs. scarcity.