Pilots Union Says There Wouldn?t Be a Pilot Shortage if Pay Was Higher

[Freebrd]

And Jenny goes on, and on, and on. Same old shet. Did y'all see what she wrote on FI last night, below in red. Unreal, but we've come to expect it outa MsJenny. Such a putz!

 

[bvt1151]

BOILERUP,

I see where you're coming from, but I actually disagree. I believe an artificial scarcity has been created by the 1,500 hour rule. There is no ability to resupply the bottom, which is why we're seeing the shortage. The "proof" (in quotes because it's circumstantial) is from the GAO report which shows that signing bonuses are working to attract pilots, but not to increase the total number of pilots. They're just stealing from other airlines. The supply of pilots remains unaddressed even with 50% signing bonuses.

What I think is more impactful from the salary front is not the starting salary like you hear in the news, it's the fact that experience means squat in the seniority system. A 9,000 hour pilot making $80k in another job won't go back to the bottom of a seniority list. What if they could slide into a $90k RJ Captain's seat? I'm pushing the bounds of reality on this because ALPA would never allow it, but this is exactly why they would never allow it.

I left the industry years ago with more than enough hours to go back, but there's no way. Not even Delta could draw me back in at the bottom of a list. All of my previous accomplishments would be out the window, and my future earning potential would be limited due to a limited number of years with which to move up. Getting on a seniority list is great if you get on young and ride the wave, but when you're out, you're out, and it's not starting salary that prevents you from getting back in. That's a very important distinction to make.

The seniority system prevents people from coming back. I'm not saying it will be changed, I'm just saying increased pay won't solve that. The only thing that will solve the pilot shortage is to reattach the supply by fixing the 1,500 hour rule.

Then again, most of the people on this board are pilots. If you're a pilot during a pilot shortage, it's not necessarily in your best interest to end it. I get that, and I'd be saying the same things if I were on that side of the shortage as well.

 

[BoilerUP]

BOILERUP,

I see where you're coming from, but I actually disagree. I believe an artificial scarcity has been created by the 1,500 hour rule. There is no ability to resupply the bottom, which is why we're seeing the shortage. The "proof" (in quotes because it's circumstantial) is from the GAO report which shows that signing bonuses are working to attract pilots, but not to increase the total number of pilots. They're just stealing from other airlines. The supply of pilots remains unaddressed even with 50% signing bonuses.

While I agree with you about artificially restricting pilot supply with the 1500hr rule and issues with resupplying the bottom, that has not yet manifested itself. I am of the mindset that it will have an impact, but will not be a nail in the coffin.

As for the red text...one has to look at the supply of pilots in the entire industry, not just within 121. The issues you have with 121 can be alleviated by going into business aviation. Pilots enter that segment for its own merits, and move between segments because they seek different things each segment offers.

Additionally, I fully expect crappy 135 operators (and crappy 91 operators) to start hiring sub-1500hr pilots at crappy pay...exchanging the turnover that occurs once those pilots hit 1500hr and move on to a 121 job for decreased pilot costs. Pilots will still be added to the total pool, they'll just come and go in a different way.

When the pool between all segments isn't big enough to cover demand, THEN there will be scarcity.

We're not there yet.

 

[imacdog]

What I think is more impactful from the salary front is not the starting salary like you hear in the news, it's the fact that experience means squat in the seniority system. A 9,000 hour pilot making $80k in another job won't go back to the bottom of a seniority list. What if they could slide into a $90k RJ Captain's seat? I'm pushing the bounds of reality on this because ALPA would never allow it, but this is exactly why they would never allow it.

Are you kidding, there are plenty of pilots out there who are qualified to fill positions at the regionals, even starting at the bottom of the list, because that's how it works. There may be some prima donnas out there who don't want to go to the bottom of any list, but they're in the minority. FUPM if you want to attract talent. Right now the regionals aren't even close to offering competitive wages, but if they paid a real salary, they'd have no issues finding pilots.

 

[bvt1151]

While I agree with you about artificially restricting pilot supply with the 1500hr rule and issues with resupplying the bottom, that has not yet manifested itself. I am of the mindset that it will have an impact, but will not be a nail in the coffin.

As for the red text...one has to look at the supply of pilots in the entire industry, not just within 121. The issues you have with 121 can be alleviated by going into business aviation. Pilots enter that segment for its own merits, and move between segments because they seek different things each segment offers.

Additionally, I fully expect crappy 135 operators (and crappy 91 operators) to start hiring sub-1500hr pilots at crappy pay...exchanging the turnover that occurs once those pilots hit 1500hr and move on to a 121 job for decreased pilot costs. Pilots will still be added to the total pool, they'll just come and go in a different way.

When the pool between all segments isn't big enough to cover demand, THEN there will be scarcity.

We're not there yet.

Wasn't expecting such a rational and thought out response. To be honest, I was expecting more of what the guy after you posted.

Regarding the 1500 hour rule, there is a very clear inflection point based precisely around the implementation of that rule. There was no pilot shortage this time last year, and within months of the new rule, the shortage hit hard, and it hit exactly where the rule would be most damaging. The impact of the rule is not in question.

But your next point is 100% spot on. Anybody doing low end 135 or 91 flying just got free pilots. This is why Great Lakes is taking 10 seats out of their 1900s. There is a glut of 250 hour pilots begging for anything to get them to 1500 hours. Problem is those jobs are a fraction of what they were in the past. Cancelled check flying is gone, small 135 operators are much thinner, and flight instructing bows to the law of diminishing returns (~125 hours dual per student to create a 250 hour pilot means 10 students worth of instruction to reach the 1,500 hours. Those 10 students then need 100. Looking at it another way, for every one flight instructor that becomes a regional pilot, 9 will have to drop out.)

One area that is growing it seems is Geo-mapping. Not sure exactly how big it's going to be, but I've had several friends leave for safety concerns. They were replaced in a day.

You say we're in a shortage and may later be in a scarcity, but not yet. I agree with where you're coming from on that, but actually think it's the opposite. I believe we're in a temporary scarcity now and a long term shortage is coming. We simply can't find pilots because the supply line has been severed by two years. However, if that is not addressed (along with several other factors including starting wages, FAR117, the next wave of retirements, polarization of seniority) we will have a long term shortage. It's more semantics than anything else, and I'm saying the same thing you are in essence.

The 1,500 hour rule has created a 2 year problem that is proving catastrophic. However, once the pilots make it through that 1,500 hours somehow and the supply hopefully starts to correct itself, then we'll be dealing with the issue that nobody has even started that process. Who wants to be a pilot now when you have to fund or work for minimum wage up to 1,500 hours when you could have started your seniority process at 500 hours?

Pilots aren't dummies. The time value of money is forefront in the career decision making process. By introducing the 1,500 hour rule, they've not only delayed their seniority list movement to sustainable pay, they've essentially removed the last two money making years of their career.

 

[imacdog]

Wasn't expecting such a rational and thought out response. To be honest, I was expecting more of what the guy after you posted.

Basic supply and demand principals aren't rational? What have you been smoking lately? Raise pay to something competitive with other industries and watching how people will line up around the block at flight schools. "Pilot Shortage" resolved.

 

[wms]

The opinions of a few on FI.com or the experts that major mgmts pay big bucks to analyze the current situation. I think I'll go with the latter and agree the staffing situation will be critical.

 

[imacdog]

The opinions of a few on FI.com or the experts that major mgmts pay big bucks to analyze the current situation. I think I'll go with the latter and agree the staffing situation will be critical.

These same "experts" that have incentive to convince the government to reduce the minimum hiring qualifications instead of having to pay more to attract talent? Those guys?

 

[wms]

No, those experts did not support 1500hr rule. That was ml mecs and alpa national wanting to take back the flying and exploiting 3407 and the families to do it.

 

[General Lee]

These same "experts" that have incentive to convince the government to reduce the minimum hiring qualifications instead of having to pay more to attract talent? Those guys?

And go up against the Families of the victims of the Colgan Air crash? They are the ones who pushed this rule through. Nobody in Congress will go up against family members of victims. Political suicide.



Bye Bye---General Lee