Pilot Shortage and The Right Stuff

[gunfyter]

Where is the Yipster ... he called it...

He said he is fearful that if there is a shortage, airlines will hire pilots who are technically qualified but don't have the "right stuff."


"If the industry is stretched pretty thin ... that can result in someone getting into the system that maybe isn't really the right person to be a pilot. Not everybody is supposed to be a pilot," Allen said.

Lee Moak, president of the pilots union, said he doubts a pilot shortage will be felt in the U.S. for about three to five years. If U.S. airlines start hiring pilots in large numbers, he said, pilots now flying for foreign carriers will likely return home. There are currently about 90,000 airline pilots in the U.S. and Canada.


"The cost of getting into flying is very expensive," Davis said. "When I talk to college students, if they're coming out of a 4-year collegiate (aviation) program most of them are $150,000 -to- $160,000 in debt. And that only gives them the qualifications to go be a flight instructor. If you're making $20,000 a year as a flight instructor you're lucky."

A shortage in the U.S. will likely first be felt at regional airlines, which tend fly smaller airliners and hire less-experienced pilots than mainline careers. A typical pilot career path is to get hired as a first officer at a regional airline, get promoted to captain and then get hired by a mainline carrier.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2012/...afety-concerns/?intcmp=features#ixzz20hJDugtg​

 

[gunfyter]

Fracs will just hire retiring airline guys if needed....

 

[Hogprint]

We've been hearing this for how many years? I think it actually may materialize this time though. It can only help the fractional segment, I just wish it would have happened sooner for our immediate concerns!

 

[gunfyter]

And the younger guys can stop worrying about when I will retire ...:laugh:

 

[pilotyip]

The new rules will make it a numbers game, where the right stuff won't matter. Two pilots applying for a F/O job at a 121 air carrier. One from JUS has 1200 hours, two year of around the clock day and night jet flight experience, IFR experience into some of the busiest airports in North America combined with 800 MEL TJ, 150 act IFR, international experience in the DA-20, 121 training, appendix "H" training, and an ATP written, the other has 1501 hours towing banners at Sunny Beach FL, 10 MEL, 1.5 hours actual IFR and an ATP. Who has more experience?, who gets hired? The answers are not the same.

BTW the college degree will be come a preferred as opposed mandatory, where now without a degree it is going in the wastebasket. Just watch.

 

[brokeflyer]

who gets hired?

the one who will work for less.

 

[pilotyip]

the one who will work for less.

of course because they have the 1500 hours and an ATP, not because they can do the job best.

 

[Helmsalee]

"the one who will work for less."

Broke, if you are talking low rent regional, ok. But, at the majors, the pay is already set. Right now, neither would even get a second look at a real airline. When the 1200 hour guy gets 300 more hours and his ATP, no contest.
Helm

 

[CALRepublic]

We've been hearing this for how many years? I think it actually may materialize this time though. It can only help the fractional segment, I just wish it would have happened sooner for our immediate concerns!

I hope it materializes this time.... Here at Netjets we've got some guys with the big jet syndrome....

I hope they get that airline job they're always talking about.. (I wanna move up)

 

[OPECJet]

The new rules will make it a numbers game, where the right stuff won't matter. Two pilots applying for a F/O job at a 121 air carrier. One from JUS has 1200 hours, two year of around the clock day and night jet flight experience, IFR experience into some of the busiest airports in North America combined with 800 MEL TJ, 150 act IFR, international experience in the DA-20, 121 training, appendix "H" training, and an ATP written, the other has 1501 hours towing banners at Sunny Beach FL, 10 MEL, 1.5 hours actual IFR and an ATP. Who has more experience?, who gets hired? The answers are not the same.

BTW the college degree will be come a preferred as opposed mandatory, where now without a degree it is going in the wastebasket. Just watch.

Depends on where they're applying. If it's a regional, the 1500 hr banner tower has it. The hiring airline will perceive the JUS guy as a short timer with no return on investment.

I've been on both sides of this argument. In 2004 I interviewed and got hired at Piedmont. Second highest time guy in the class with about 1300 hours, 200 in Lear 24/25s and Sabreliners. In 2010 I interviewed at ASA with 5000 hours, a type, ATP, 3000 hrs in a 121 cockpit and another 500 at NJA. I drove 4 hours to the interview and had a rejection email before I got home. Now my background was not the only driving factor in getting the rejection, but I would bet it played some small part.

 

[cldsfr79]

I hope it materializes this time.... Here at Netjets we've got some guys with the big jet syndrome....

I hope they get that airline job they're always talking about.. (I wanna move up)

I'm trying. Up and out is my goal. My seat will still be warm when u get it.

 

[CALRepublic]

I'm trying. Up and out is my goal. My seat will still be warm when u get it.

best of luck to ya, hope you get it soon

 

[BentOver]

I think nearly every SIC in a position to move to a legacy will attempt to do so. Netjets did not come through like we had all hoped. Bottom of the list after 10 years and still in a small citation or phenom is not a very good prospect for many

 

[gutshotdraw]

I think nearly every SIC in a position to move to a legacy will attempt to do so. Netjets did not come through like we had all hoped. Bottom of the list after 10 years and still in a small citation or phenom is not a very good prospect for many

And some of the younger, junior PIC's as well. I hope many get hired. That will be a rising tide for all concerned.

 

[nordo_2]

I hope it materializes this time.... Here at Netjets we've got some guys with the big jet syndrome....

I hope they get that airline job they're always talking about.. (I wanna move up)

Its more than just “Big Airplane” syndrome. More to do with “Big Career Aspirations” syndrome.

Or at least more than bottom feeding off the NJ seniority list. Indefinitely.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Gotta do what you gotta do!

I can't blame anyone for pursuing their dreams!

Get some.

 

[gunfyter]

Gotta do what you gotta do!

I can't blame anyone for pursuing their dreams!

Get some.

The more the merrier....

 

[-FlyAuburn-]

Its more than just “Big Airplane” syndrome. More to do with “Big Career Aspirations” syndrome.

Or at least more than bottom feeding off the NJ seniority list. Indefinitely.

What you said.

 

[imacdog]

Big Airplane Syndrome are the suckers that went to SkyBus. What we have now is people who see better opportunity.

 

[osy007]

I was browsing through APC's legacy section and they are showing an average retirement rate of 300 pilots/year for each airline. Times that by 6 or so which could include the cargos and things should start opening up soon for everyone. I'm guestimating around 1500 to 2000 pilots retiring every year until 2030.

 

[nordo_2]

Big Airplane Syndrome are the suckers that went to SkyBus. What we have now is people who see better opportunity.

The “Suckers that went to SkyBus”. What about the suckers that left for JetBlue just before the 05 contract was signed. Now they’re all captains living in or near base. I’ll bet they don’t taxi past the FBO wishing they were still sitting in that lounge chair. Is that “Big Airplane Syndrome” gone bad?

Either way, the suckers as you put it, probably weren’t too happy with the thought of “coffee, papers, ice”; and/or shoving bags up the rear of airplanes in freezing rain, for the rest of their lives.

The SkyBus folks went for it. They took a risk. And I’m sure they didn’t curl up and die. They probably picked themselves up, and moved on to something else. Being content with NJ is not everyone’s lot in life. Taking a risk for your overall happiness is always worthwhile. NJ is a very good job. Just not a great career for some.

 

[pilotyip]

The SkyBus folks went for it. They took a risk. And I’m sure they didn’t curl up and die. They probably picked themselves up, and moved on to something else. Being content with NJ is not everyone’s lot in life. Taking a risk for your overall happiness is always worthwhile. NJ is a very good job. Just not a great career for some.

I reported aboard CVAN-65 USS Enterprise in 1975. At that time civilian flying jobs a scarce. I meet this guy who is getting out, going to work for company doing overnight mail, paid $400/mo for a F/O's job, he had to use his GI bill for training in the right seat of the DA-20. I thought the company must have had a gov't contract with a name like Federal Express. He stayed at FedEx, ran across him at a CO's conference in the late 80's he was like a double-digit seniority number. All the preparation in the world does not guarantee you are making the right choices. Shows you just never know about that job.

 

[nordo_2]

I reported aboard CVAN-65 USS Enterprise in 1975. At that time civilian flying jobs a scarce. I meet this guy who is getting out, going to work for company doing overnight mail, paid $400/mo for a F/O's job, he had to use his GI bill for training in the right seat of the DA-20. I thought the company must have had a gov't contract with a name like Federal Express. He stayed at FedEx, ran across him at a CO's conference in the late 80's he was like a double-digit seniority number. All the preparation in the world does not guarantee you are making the right choices. Shows you just never know about that job.

That’s a good story yip. You never know. Singling out a few who fail in an attempt to better themselves, is ridiculous. What’s the worse that can happen? A company folds? So what. If someone leaves a company, they probably weren’t happy with the overall circumstances of their employment. The SkyBus example says more about NJ, than the decision making process of those pilots.

And in your example, the “X” factor is always in play.

 

[imacdog]

The “Suckers that went to SkyBus”. What about the suckers that left for JetBlue just before the 05 contract was signed. Now they’re all captains living in or near base. I’ll bet they don’t taxi past the FBO wishing they were still sitting in that lounge chair. Is that “Big Airplane Syndrome” gone bad?

Either way, the suckers as you put it, probably weren’t too happy with the thought of “coffee, papers, ice”; and/or shoving bags up the rear of airplanes in freezing rain, for the rest of their lives.

The SkyBus folks went for it. They took a risk. And I’m sure they didn’t curl up and die. They probably picked themselves up, and moved on to something else. Being content with NJ is not everyone’s lot in life. Taking a risk for your overall happiness is always worthwhile. NJ is a very good job. Just not a great career for some.

I'm all for bettering one's life, but pretty much every sane person could see the writing on the wall at that airline before it even started operations.

 

[cldsfr79]

I reported aboard CVAN-65 USS Enterprise in 1975. At that time civilian flying jobs a scarce. I meet this guy who is getting out, going to work for company doing overnight mail, paid $400/mo for a F/O's job, he had to use his GI bill for training in the right seat of the DA-20. I thought the company must have had a gov't contract with a name like Federal Express. He stayed at FedEx, ran across him at a CO's conference in the late 80's he was like a double-digit seniority number. All the preparation in the world does not guarantee you are making the right choices. Shows you just never know about that job.

Yip, for once I really enjoyed this post. I like to read success stories, or at the very least, gambling that paid off. It is a crap shoot where ever guys go. The most stable place we all clamor to get on can go bust (Pan-Am, TWA, Eastern, Braniff, American?, NetJets?) and the least expected places, the ones you only apply to last, go big (Southwest, FedEx, UPS). I just wish my crystal ball was working right.
____
In regards to guys bashing SkyBus: They took a risk. I don't think it was "big airplane syndrome". I think guys rushed over there because they could have been on the ground floor of something big. Skybus, if managed right, if they actually put it in a "destination city"-not Columbus, and if fuel prices at the time weren't $150 a barrel, I think they could have made it. They could have grown rapidly like Ryan Air in Europe, and young guys could have been set. Looking back on history, who really wanted to go to a crappy Intra Texas airline when you could get on with Braniff Airlines or some other legacy carrier years ago.
______
And the pilot shortage. "The right stuff".
Yeah this could be a problem. In the mid to late 90s through about 00-01'ish, a certain fractional opened up the flood gate and allowed anyone who had a pilot certificate and believed to know how to fly a plane to get a job. And then you got the guys who were hired prior to the mid 90s when a certain fractional was tiny, you had to pay for your job, and the wages were horrific. Not sure why they stayed while the majors and nationals grew in the mid to late 90s???? Yeah, they hired some great guys, but the tide brought in a lot of undesirables. Some guys have basic flight skill issues and some have poor work ethic. It can be scary when you open the flood gates. Every airline has a percentage of undesirables, usually <5%, I would guess it would be closer to 20% at a certain fractional....and for some reason the percentage is all at the top of the seniority list??

 

[nordo_2]

Yip, for once I really enjoyed this post. I like to read success stories, or at the very least, gambling that paid off. It is a crap shoot where ever guys go. The most stable place we all clamor to get on can go bust (Pan-Am, TWA, Eastern, Braniff, American?, NetJets?) and the least expected places, the ones you only apply to last, go big (Southwest, FedEx, UPS). I just wish my crystal ball was working right.
____
In regards to guys bashing SkyBus: They took a risk. I don't think it was "big airplane syndrome". I think guys rushed over there because they could have been on the ground floor of something big. Skybus, if managed right, if they actually put it in a "destination city"-not Columbus, and if fuel prices at the time weren't $150 a barrel, I think they could have made it. They could have grown rapidly like Ryan Air in Europe, and young guys could have been set. Looking back on history, who really wanted to go to a crappy Intra Texas airline when you could get on with Braniff Airlines or some other legacy carrier years ago.
______
And the pilot shortage. "The right stuff".
Yeah this could be a problem. In the mid to late 90s through about 00-01'ish, a certain fractional opened up the flood gate and allowed anyone who had a pilot certificate and believed to know how to fly a plane to get a job. And then you got the guys who were hired prior to the mid 90s when a certain fractional was tiny, you had to pay for your job, and the wages were horrific. Not sure why they stayed while the majors and nationals grew in the mid to late 90s???? Yeah, they hired some great guys, but the tide brought in a lot of undesirables. Some guys have basic flight skill issues and some have poor work ethic. It can be scary when you open the flood gates. Every airline has a percentage of undesirables, usually <5%, I would guess it would be closer to 20% at a certain fractional....and for some reason the percentage is all at the top of the seniority list??

A few at NJ like to blow of pilots that might want to switch, or go back to the airlines, as “Big Airplane Syndrome”. Don’t understand why. Inferring some sort of myopic or flawed decision process.