Pilot Salaries - how will they change?

[shon7]

With regards to pilot salaries - how do you figure they'll change in the next ten years.

That is - do you see the same trend continuing -

will the mainline salaries continue to decrease. If so - what about the regionals - they possibly cannot reduce those salaries further. Do you see the salary curve straightening out - that is the regionals paying more but mainline salaries still being cut.


Finally, where do you suppose the mainline salaries will "top off" in the next ten years?

 

[180ToTheMarker]

IMHO-

Current salaries will probably rise with the next contracts over the next several years. Then the economy will start its cyclical downward trend again and management will panic and run to the employees for consessions and the whole thing will begin anew.

 

[80drvr]

With regards to pilot salaries - how do you figure they'll change in the next ten years.

That is - do you see the same trend continuing -

will the mainline salaries continue to decrease. If so - what about the regionals - they possibly cannot reduce those salaries further. Do you see the salary curve straightening out - that is the regionals paying more but mainline salaries still being cut.


Finally, where do you suppose the mainline salaries will "top off" in the next ten years?

Mainline salaries right row encompass a pretty wide range in terms of dollars and productivity with companies such as UAL & AA at the low end and DAL & NWA at the high. Given that LCC compensation has improved, I think you'll see mainline money improve as the economy improves, but productivity will probably gravitate toward the LCC's.

The problem with the regionals will be excess capacity in the small jet market giving management incentive to play partners against each other for better rates.

Of course, we could all get outsourced to cheap foreign labor, so If I were getting into this business right now, I'd make sure I had another marketable skill to fall back on. Another Republican administration could have pretty grim implications for the labor end of this business (and that's coming from a lifelong Republican).

 

[viperdriver]

How could we seriously think about outsourcing pilots to foriegn nationals with the security threats out there? What good does it do to reinforce the cockpit door and let pilots carry guns if you have 2 Osama's flying the plane? Sorry to hi-jack your thread. Anyone want to fly Dallas to St Loius on Al-Jazeera Airlines?

 

[Starlizard]

hey viperdriver

I think the corporate types will have it all figured out. It will be a facade with english sounding names with airplanes painted in red, white, and blue; but the pilots up front will have names like Osama. It all comes down to corporate greed. The current business model is simply to cut labor costs anyway they can.

 

[JohnDoe]

Sorry, but "security" is not going to be an issue with regards to outsourcing. Its all going to be about big $$.

If security was such a concern, cargo cabatoge would not have just passed, and our government would not be in talks with the EU over expanding cabotage to passenger ops, changing foreign owenership rules, etc. etc..

All the supposed changes to "enhance" security since 9-11 have been nothing but "eye candy" for the general public. Why would this be any different??

As far as the general public flying on "Al-Jazzera" airlines, the only thing they are going to care about is the price of their ticket (now granted, if multiple planes start falling out of the sky, this will change, but not until it happens......"blood on the runway" concept).

 

[80drvr]

How could we seriously think about outsourcing pilots to foriegn nationals with the security threats out there? What good does it do to reinforce the cockpit door and let pilots carry guns if you have 2 Osama's flying the plane? Sorry to hi-jack your thread. Anyone want to fly Dallas to St Loius on Al-Jazeera Airlines?

The camel already has it's nose under the tent with Sen Stevens getting foreign cabotage through anchorage attached to the recently signed FAA appropriations bill. Foreign outsourcing is a plague for U.S. labor in almost every industry, so to think that corporate management doesn't covet it in the airline is naive. Looking around the ramp over the past 5 years yields a pretty good illustration of how much airline management truly values safety and security over $$$.

 

[F18-FDX]

"How could we seriously think about outsourcing pilots to foreign nationals with the security threats out there?"

It has already happened, and will continue if we don't get serious. Most smart people ask the same question above, unfortunately Congress doesn't fall into the "smart people" category. In case you haven't heard, Congress just passed the FAA Reauthorization Bill. Sen. Ted Stevens of AK slipped in an amendment that allows cargo cabotage through Anchorage. What is cabotage, you may ask? Basically it means that any foreign carrier (Air China Cargo, Singapore Cargo, Al Queda Cargo etc.), as long as they pass through Anchorage, can continue on and fly domestically within our system to deliver their goods (whether that be cargo, or just the airplane into a nuclear power plant). Can you believe it? Yep, this is the way our system works, some self-serving idiot can attach an amendment with no formalized debate and little publicity onto a Bill to get some pork for his state. However in the process it increases the security risk to our entire nation and BEGINS the process of exporting pilot jobs overseas. And oh by the way, there are no reciprocal agreements with any other country.

Don't think it can happen to the pax carriers? Stand the f*** by. It is already starting, especially if the Bush administration stays in the White House. Open skies agreements that could be ratified within the next year or two will open up our domestic system to foreign carriers. The U.S. will have reciprocal agreements with Europe and other countries, but it doesn't take Einstein to figure out which market has the most opportunity. Some majors will increase market share overseas but in the grand scheme of things, U.S. carriers will lose.

If you don't think this could be a reality, you're living in a dream world. Look at the numbers of High salary jobs that have gone overseas in the past few years alone. The only way to slow it down is to contact your Senators and Representatives and let them know, that you, for one will not stand for it. Whether it will actually make an impact on our self-serving congress is unknown, I have almost lost faith seeing Ted Steven's amendment pass, but I know if we do nothing the writing is already on the wall...

 

[Pez D. Spencer]

F18-FDX,
I agree with most of your post... I don't think that cabotage, alone, will result in a huge loss of American jobs.

Cabotage: 8th Freedom rights - the right of an airline to pick up and set down passengers or freight between two domestic points in another country on a service originating in its own home country.

But, I do think that "relaxing (or eliminating) nationality and ownership" laws in the US will have a widespread adverse impact on American jobs.

What we need to let our representitives know is that they CANNOT relax current labor laws (which they would be pressured to do if they relax nationality/ownership). This might solve some of the problem... not all of it. If the government relaxes its nationality/ownership laws, cabotage is not an issue - it will just further the damage.

How do we keep current labor laws intact? To start with, get every union to start a political campaign to prevent these changes. For example, a union like IBT has a huge membership, representing diverse industries, not just airline professionals. It would be easy to show American workers how, eventually, auto workers, steel workers, and every other facet of organized labor along with their airline counterparts, will be attacked and outsourced to cheap foreign labor - if labor laws are diminished for the sake of foreign airlines. Greenspan tends to think that cheap labor markets will not have a net effect on American standards of living (although it concerned him enough for him to mention it). He points out that new jobs have always been created. I respect the guy tremendously, but I do not share his optimism.

Unfortunately, both Democratic and Republican Whitehouses have pushed toward open skies for years. Fortunately, they have been resistant to changes in nationality/ownership and "unpopular" changes to labor laws. We need to increase the pressure. As you said, if we do nothing - we're screwed.

The EU wants to control Washington.

 

[F18-FDX]

Pez,

I agree, and I don't think cabotage alone will result in a huge loss of American jobs either...today. As I mentioned, IMO this BEGINS the process. Today Anchorage, tomorrow LA, San Francisco, Newark, Miami, etc., then passengers, open skies. You get the idea. Left unchecked there is no end in sight.

I agree with your other point as well, but I think the relaxation of nationality/ownership has already begun too. Look at the DHL/Airborne merger. Everyone knows this will be a German company with an American figurehead to get by our rules. Do they really expect me to believe that this will be an American company? I guess DHL will stop delivering domestically in Germany then, since American companies can't...as well as the other countries with which Germany has agreements. Not a chance...give me a break. By the way, this is not flame bait for you Airborne guys, just trying to make a point.

I also agree that both Democratic and Republican Administrations have pushed open skies issues, however never to this extent in my opinion. When it comes to a decision that benefits big business with little regard for those who work for the big business, I think we all know where W and his boys stand (from yet another former lifelong Republican).

My overall point - this is the beginning of something which could prove to be very, very ugly for U.S. pilots.

 

[viperdriver]

Sounds like we are all preaching to the choir. Common sense would say if I own any major airline I could not afford the risk to hire 2 guys from Pakistan to fly my planes around. One bad apple would ruin the whole company/industry. Of course I guess I could just try to make money as fast as I could and then if a tragedy should happen-move on-

 

[General Lee]

I highly doubt that my Mom will be able to fly from LAS to LAX on Aeroflot anytime soon. Nope. Will not happen. I don't care if John McCain wants it for lower fares---it will not happen for security reasons. Every 9-11 we always have elevated security threats, and if we EVER had Eygpt Air flying from FLL to ORD 6 times perday---it would be flooded with security every holiday. I know that we already have those types of airlines flying into JFK etc...., but they are limited in number, and I am sure they are watched carefully by US security.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[F18-FDX]

You would think, but if security was a driving factor (as it should be) Stevens' amendment would never have passed. If someone flew an airplane into 3-mile island, I doubt anyone would care whether it was a passenger or cargo airplane. Our congress just told us that security doesn't matter that much. The vulnerability is there, in fact it is now U.S. law. Sorry to have hijacked the thread...

 

[G4G5]

What you will see is an increase in foreign ownership. Airlines like BA and Lufthansa will be forced to take an equitity position in an effort to solidify their alliances.

BA could hypotheticly purchase upto 25% of AA (similar to what KLM did with NWA back in the early 90's) at $10-12 a share BA would be getting a bargin. Because AA could instantly turn that new found cash into leverage. Just paying down some debt then refinancing the new debt at an improved interest rate would raise AA's stock price. A new stock price of $15-20 would not be far fetched. BA could conceivably see a 50% ROI in under a year.

Without AA or UAL, BA and Lufthansa will be left out in the cold. They will do what ever they can to help the survival of their alliance partnership.

 

[General Lee]

I agree with G4G5. I can see more foreign ownership, but never for more than 49%. (right now--how much can they own in %???)
When the boom times return eventually--these cash rich foreign airlines can make a bundle--but they will have to still put up with the unions. (this is America buddy---not China!!)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[80drvr]

Sounds like we are all preaching to the choir. Common sense would say if I own any major airline I could not afford the risk to hire 2 guys from Pakistan to fly my planes around. One bad apple would ruin the whole company/industry. Of course I guess I could just try to make money as fast as I could and then if a tragedy should happen-move on-

I think that your last sentence nails it....problem is the market doesn't penalize companies too much for "one time events".

 

[JohnDoe]

quote from 80dvr:

"I think that your last sentence nails it....problem is the market doesn't penalize companies too much for "one time events"."


Exactly........There are going to be "acceptable" losses if the money is flowing.


Quote from General Lee:
"When the boom times return eventually--these cash rich foreign airlines can make a bundle--but they will have to still put up with the unions. (this is America buddy---not China!!)"



That is exactly the point some people are trying to get accross: If this EU agreement goes into place, they will NOT have to deal with U.S. unions because they will be able to bring in their own pilots, or start their own airline here in the U.S. and use a mix of the thousands of pilots willing to work for $13 an hour here and their own people. And no, security will not be an issue. It hasn't up to this point, and it won't be then.

 

[pipejockey]

Question for anybody who knows,

How much do the Major Airline pilots of say, KLM, Air France, Quantas, earn? I cant imagine they could earn any less than a AA, UA, US pilot presently earns. So how much would they really save by taking American pilots out of the equation and replacing them with their own?

And when Astar hires pilots do they have to be US citizens or can they hire foreigners?