PDT and ALG?

[Dash8]

hmm..possibly, or it could be the supposed # of furloughs with j4j and replacement of the dashs with rjs...or who knows what kind of threat it might have been

 

[LearLove]

Best Case Worst Case Estimate

Lets Look at a best case worst case situation at say Allegheny in ref. to the "comming" jets factoring in J4ourjobs. The info and data is based off of info given from crystal city press releases and Alg weekly updates. Taking this info I feel we can get a best and worst case estimate of what is likely to happen here in the next year to 2 years, here goes.

Best case, this ones pretty easy - We Allegheny are allotted say 30 RJ's with no dash retirements for several years and when we do get ride of the dash enough jets will come to support the 50% mainline and the current Alg sen. list.

Now using this data taken from the may bid for pilot #'s. We have 365 total line flying spots with 17 pilots either off line for LOA, ALPA or being training/checkairman/sim guys for a total of 386 onthe senority list.

As for the number of RJ's my guess based on co. info would be 30 jets to ALG in the next 1 to 1.5 years. Where do I get this you ask, they say they want to place an order for 50 with 50 more in the next 30 days or so. Conservitivly this give us 30 RJ at AlG.

30 rj's is actually like 15 rj due to mainline guys being forced upon us. at 10 pilots per RJ and us not getting ride of any dash8's (currently have 45) we would need to hire as senior guys and J4j mainline guys went to the RJ spots would open for the Dash. Then as we get more orders in 2 years the dashes would go and be replaced with RJ as to not displace anyone - There you have it, Best Case Situation, jets come and nobody goes to the street.

______________Worst Case_________________

Lets look at a worst case: First they announce that they ordered 50 jets for the WO carriers. Then they announce that the Dash8 will be retired very fast starting at the end of the summer. My guess out of the 50 jets ALG gets 15. This supports 150 pilots at 10 per a/c. But remember 50% go to our mainline "brothers" so as the dash goes and we are left with 15 jets the top 75 half of 150, give or take a few) of ALG's seniority remain. This would support a DOH of say mid to semi-late 80's. Of the 386 now on the list 311 would be furloughed. And there you have it worst case. Or they could just shut us down then no jobs ever.

_______________somewhere inbetween________________

I willing to bet it will be somewhere inbetween. My estimate will be something like this. My estimate cover now to say 2 years from now so say march of 2005.

Here Goes: Sometime in the next month to month and a half managements anounces orders for 50 rj to the WO with unspecified options. I can see allegheny getting 20 of thoes (well just guess that to run the numbers) this is really like getting 10 rj's due to the 50% mainline "bros" horning in. At 10 pilots per rj this is 100 ALG pilots for the jet. Now we have the dashes. Using the data from the summer 2002 J4J threat letter for dash retirements we will be at 20 (give or take a few) dash8's by the end of 2004. Now the dash remains 100% WO staffed and my staffing numbers show 8.5 pilots per dash. 20 times 8.5 is 170. So to get the remaining ALG guys add 100 (alg jet pilots) and 170 (alg dash pilots) and get 270 pilots from todays ALG sen. list. So if the list remains the same I.E. nobody leaves we will have 386-270= 116 pilots on furlough. Our fleet would be 20 rj's and 20 dashes. Like I said before the top 270 pilots from todays sen. list would have jobs, this supports a DOH of Feb/March 2000 assuming nobody senior leaves in this time frame. I did not assume age 60 retirements also which are slow for the next year but kick into gear after mid 04 (yes that right boys age 60 retirement at a commuter airline). Especially between 05 and 2010. Then after 04 as the rest of the dsah8's go we will at least replace them 1 for 1 hopefully 1 for 2 and the 116 or so on furlough come back. Well there you have it, like I said it's just my guess however I tried to base it on solid facts and info given to us I would not be supprised if it looks like this give or take a few jets/dash's and staffing numbers.

__________________________________________________

Below is a selected paragraph copied from 4/4/03 CP update.

"US Airways spokesman David Castelveter announced Monday that US Airways was in negotiations with both Bombardier and Embraer and would be placing an order within 30 days for 100 aircraft with one of those companies. The initial order would be for 50 50-seaters and 50 70-seaters, with options for 100 more of each, to be operated by USAirways wholly-owned subsidiaries."


Hope this helps, What do you guys think?

 

[LearLove]

Alg Retirement #'s for Sh1ts and Grins

next 10 years

2003 - 1 congrats Ken, enjoy the good life.
2004 - 4
2005 - 4
2006 - 8
2007 - 7
2008 - 3
2009 - 2
2010 - 7
2011 - 11
2012 - 10
2013 - 7

So not including this year thats 63 from 2004 to 2013

63/386 = 16.3 %

 

[Desiday]

Hey Learlove, I like your "best case" scenerio. This way I'll get my butt put in a Dash and finally be out of the pool. Man am I tired from treading water. Will someone throw me a life vest?!

 

[dondk]

Scenario's

For the WO's I hope for the best case scenario. The only thing I saw let out..

That they (Crystal city) go with a 5 crews per plane staffing model. If not, that will throw one heck of a wrench into any scenario. I know some RJ operators run anywhere from a low of 4 crews per plane.

Question though.. I thought somewhere the WO structure was suppose to be....

MDA would get all 70 seaters or better and would get jets first.
After they had some staffing then they rest of the RJ's would work into the WO's.

MDA is suppose to be 100% furloughed Airways, are they not?

 

[WSurf]

The reason the WO's might get the first jets, (1) MDA isn't up and close to running yet. US Airways needed RJ's like yesterday!! (2) Piedmont (and ALG/PSA if Combined) has a AQP program which takes years for the FAA to approve. So that alone will save tons in training cost. Plus, once the first RJ's hit the about 90 days they can be flying them.
But I won't believe it till I see it. This is gonna be an interesting 3-10 Months at USAirways.

 

[328dude]

Here's what I know. LOA 83 dealt with the placing of up to 20 70 seaters at each wholly owned. However, they wanted to be staffed completly by furlughed US Airways. All three WO MEC's said no way, except if they payed the guys and gals in the 50 seaters 70 seater wages. The mainline refused. If any 70 seaters go to affiliate carriers, 50 percent of the seats are staffed by furlughed mainliners, the other by affiliate personel. So, you can see the problem the MEC's had with this. AWhy not 50/50 at the WO's then like the affiliate carriers.

As far as PSA goes, we have a staff rate of 3.8 crews per airplane. PSA needs 37 aircraft to keep everyone in their current postion (DO-Capt='s CRJ-Capt etc etc). Anymore than that, requires us to hire since they are staffing the jet at 5 crews per aircraft.
Negotiations are still activily ongoing at both Bombardier and Embrear (SP). They expect a a decision by mid april and which point they will release the actual numbers of what goes where.

I've been in contact with both ALG and PDT's MEC's. They are hearing the same thing as we have here at PSA.

 

[Kingairrick]

I just got an application package from PSA in the mail today. How does that fit in? I sent them a resume about 6 months ago...They must be anticipating something.

 

[Bluestreaker]

they are always doing stupid sh1t, they are interviewing yet they still have people on furlough, go figure??

 

[Desiday]

When are the WO's going to get their fleet plan with the projected assignings of the RJ's and and plans for the current aircraft they are flying?

 

[LearLove]

Most likely later this month, My best guess. According to my sources and other co info thyey are still in talks with manufactures. Just sit tight you'll know as soon as we know.