Parker's bid a longshot--WSJ

[GogglesPisano]

The UAL-DAL merger sounds good in theory, but airline mergers rarely turn out well and they would produce serious integration challenges in the short run. Doubt that will happen either.

Apparently we pilots know our history, but the Wall Street analysts and CNBC talking heads -- Boyd aside -- have forgotten already. In this history of airline mergers only one - DL and Western in the late 80's -- ever had pro's exceeding con's. Only time will tell if he USAir+AmWest deal has worked.

 

[pgcfii2002]

Not really. The new guys are good, hence a profit lately. We stole a guy from Alitalia and CAL (Hauenstein) who really has made some better decidions, and our COO Whitehurst is younger and not a banker like Leo Mullin, and seems to have a good plan. Grinstein already has enough money, he is just staying around a bit longer to cement his legacy at DL. He knows he is to blame for a lot of this, since he hired Leo Mullin. He will make money in the end I am sure, but he wants to see us get out and stand on our own. Then he will hand over the keys to Whitehurst, hopefully.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Isn't Hauenstein from the Robert Six era???

 

[Marko Ramius]

Hired guns

Not really. The new guys are good, hence a profit lately. We stole a guy from Alitalia and CAL (Hauenstein) who really has made some better decidions, and our COO Whitehurst is younger and not a banker like Leo Mullin, and seems to have a good plan. Grinstein already has enough money, he is just staying around a bit longer to cement his legacy at DL. He knows he is to blame for a lot of this, since he hired Leo Mullin. He will make money in the end I am sure, but he wants to see us get out and stand on our own. Then he will hand over the keys to Whitehurst, hopefully.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Unfortunately none of us really know why Grinstein is staying around, we only know that he isn't staying for the long haul and that is big. You can't tell from his public comments anymore than the B6 guys who tell that they 'know' Neelman isn't interested or won't sell JetBlue. Grinstein position is similar to that of Creighton's at UAL and the board guy(forgot name) who led Airways into it's second bancruptcy. Go back and look at the recent bancruptcies: these guys tend to have zero credibility with the banks/lenders because they aren't long term. Parker was the point man on getting the money for the Airways merger, and Creighton had to step aside at UAL for even their ATSB loan to be considered semi-seriously. As an employee you have to be leery of these guys because they aren't your longterm leader, they are there to hand over the keys to someone else and pick up a parting gift.

From Parker's POV this is a pretty good deal either way. On the one hand you get what you want and get the DL assets you want at a good price in BK. On the other if it fails, you stir up a hornet's nest at one of your biggest competitors which could lead to faulty business decisons that hamstring them down the line. DL can say that their focus is the same, but reality is that for the next three months they will spend more time hawking the virtues of trusting this mgt. team than actually formulating a business plan. Also the plan is far more likely to bend to the individual whims of the creditors(it has to)-not an optimum deal from a DL employee's pov.

BTW General, is this article correct in stating that Boeing is an unsecured creditor? If so that's not a good deal. If you look at the cast of characters given for that committee-with the exception of Boeing it's a veritable 'Who's who in getting shafted in airline BK's from 1978-present' This seems more likely to force Boeing to work out a deal with UA for a counter-bid. Parker is skilled at getting other entities to add capital to his deals after the initial announcement, expect more of the same. I believe Airbus is either on the board or has a big stake in Airways and their troubles of late make them a good candidate for the pumping in more dollars to refleet DL's narrowbodies and maintain a US launch customer for the 350XWB.

 

[General Lee]

Unfortunately none of us really know why Grinstein is staying around, we only know that he isn't staying for the long haul and that is big. You can't tell from his public comments anymore than the B6 guys who tell that they 'know' Neelman isn't interested or won't sell JetBlue. Grinstein position is similar to that of Creighton's at UAL and the board guy(forgot name) who led Airways into it's second bancruptcy. Go back and look at the recent bancruptcies: these guys tend to have zero credibility with the banks/lenders because they aren't long term. Parker was the point man on getting the money for the Airways merger, and Creighton had to step aside at UAL for even their ATSB loan to be considered semi-seriously. As an employee you have to be leery of these guys because they aren't your longterm leader, they are there to hand over the keys to someone else and pick up a parting gift.

From Parker's POV this is a pretty good deal either way. On the one hand you get what you want and get the DL assets you want at a good price in BK. On the other if it fails, you stir up a hornet's nest at one of your biggest competitors which could lead to faulty business decisons that hamstring them down the line. DL can say that their focus is the same, but reality is that for the next three months they will spend more time hawking the virtues of trusting this mgt. team than actually formulating a business plan. Also the plan is far more likely to bend to the individual whims of the creditors(it has to)-not an optimum deal from a DL employee's pov.

BTW General, is this article correct in stating that Boeing is an unsecured creditor? If so that's not a good deal. If you look at the cast of characters given for that committee-with the exception of Boeing it's a veritable 'Who's who in getting shafted in airline BK's from 1978-present' This seems more likely to force Boeing to work out a deal with UA for a counter-bid. Parker is skilled at getting other entities to add capital to his deals after the initial announcement, expect more of the same. I believe Airbus is either on the board or has a big stake in Airways and their troubles of late make them a good candidate for the pumping in more dollars to refleet DL's narrowbodies and maintain a US launch customer for the 350XWB.

Well, there are rumors out there that we have a large Boeing order waiting, which would help them out. That would be announced after we get out of BK. I think they would rather us buy Boeing than go to USAir and turn into the borg with Airbus.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Again it is a terrible fit. Lots of overlap and zero presence in Asia. Ok one Atl-Nrt flt and very few long range aircraft with none on order. United-Dal or Nwa-Delta would be a real powerhouse. I think Parkers bluffing or delusional, either way it is going to continue the roller coaster ride for us.

 

[Itsallsogood]

"LIVE ..... FROM BUCKEYE ... IN ATLANTA GEOGIA....ITS Maria Beadette and that nasty ........ Laura McGann....... "

 

[Swaayze]

FWIW, the Boeing thing is more interesting than we think.....rumor has it that LCC has been in serious talks with Boeing recently regarding a large order for 737-3/400 replacement airframes. Throw in the A350 debacle and the 777/787 become very interesting to LCC as well. Boeing may be very happy to support this bid even if you throw out the 25% premium.

 

[Hpilot]

FWIW, the Boeing thing is more interesting than we think.....rumor has it that LCC has been in serious talks with Boeing recently regarding a large order for 737-3/400 replacement airframes. Throw in the A350 debacle and the 777/787 become very interesting to LCC as well. Boeing may be very happy to support this bid even if you throw out the 25% premium.

DING..DING..DING..DING..We have a winner! Would you like the giant stuffed tiger or the panda bear.

 

[Deacon]

Well, there are rumors out there that we have a large Boeing order waiting, which would help them out. That would be announced after we get out of BK. I think they would rather us buy Boeing than go to USAir and turn into the borg with Airbus.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Except Boeing is backed up with new orders until at least 2011.it will be a long wait for new airframes

 

[Lampshade]

Except Boeing is backed up with new orders until at least 2011.it will be a long wait for new airframes

2nd production line is in the works.