Orenstein and US Airways

[surplus1]

Surplus1, nice job. Unfortunately, you are right it will never happen for these two reasons,

1. The one thing U needs the most right know is to cut all costs. By creating one large WO (NEW), you are taking away the whipsaw. MGMT uses the whipsaw to keep regional costs to a minimum. The way you have structured the deal, NEW would have to much power in the future and leave MGMT no way out. The Comair strike has taught most CEO's that you need not have all your egg's in one basket. (In Comair's case, all the flying in CVG). That is why you see Delta spreading the flying around. Same with United and with NW (Mesaba vs. AirLink), ect. Even American has resisted giving all the TWA express flying to Eagle. I know this sucks but it is the way it is.

A lot of that is true. The way I structured it does eliminate the whipsaw. It also provides a way to control the costs that management wants. The union has leverage at USAirways right now, but apparently they have not the will to use it. As I see it, that is beacuse the mainline pilots chose not to see beyond their own greed and the union (which IS nothing but mainline pilots) is not really a union at all.

As for Butrell's protfolio concept at DCI to counter another Comair you are right. Again, he can do that because we have no real union and will not stand against it. Delta pilots, like USAir pilots choose to ignore the forest while focusing on the trees. Ultimately, they will both pay a much higher price over the long term.

ALPA and Delta mainline had an opportunity right before the Comair strike. They didn't take it when they could. It may now be lost forever. ALPA and the UMEC are doing pretty much the same thing, i.e., giving up another opportunity to reverse the trend.

2. The fact is the contract carriers can and will do it cheaper. U is two weeks from chapter 11 and they will be trying to cut every corner to keep the costs down. I think that the POT deal is only to get the mainline boys in the game. I think that they will get the first 70 or so but I will be very surprised if they get anymore. I think the majority of the rest of the 230 (assuming that they get the 300 rj's as part of the restructuring deal) will go to contract carriers, many of whom already have options that can be exorcized much faster then POT could get RJ's up and flying. U need RJ's in the air yesterday. If you read between the lines on all the talks about rj's, they have always said that they will put AS MANY rj's as they can at POT. That could be three hundred or it could be one. I think it will be on the low side. But who the hell am I anyway.

You could be right about most of that too. The point is we ourselves as pilots, mainline and regional, and our union have given management the opportunity to do what it is doing. Apparently we don't have the will to even try and take it back.

The lowest bidder ultimately will get the flying. Right now, the low bidders are regional carriers. The day may come sooner than you think that they will be bidding not just for the RJ flying, but for ALL the mainline narrow body flying. I predict they'll get it. Mainline pilots will then regret what they're doing today, but it will be too little too late.

I don't buy your idea that the contract carriers can add 230 RJs any faster than the USAG subsidiaries could do it. They too will have to hire and train the pilots. The facilities to do that are pretty much the same no matter who does it. 230 new RJs will require the same 2,300 new pilots to fly them regardless of who the operator may turn out to be. There are only so many simulators in the world and its no more practical to attempt to train RJ pilots by flying around the traffic pattern in live airplanes, than it is to do so in 737s. Like it or not, those airplanes aren't Beech 1900s or Jetstreams. It will take the same number of sim sessions to train a Mesa pilot as it will a USAG pilot.

I know this is not what most want to see happen (for the most part me neither) but it is what I would do if I were Segal. It sucks but it makes business sense and after all, this is business.

These are just my personal opinions and are backed up by almost no facts or inside info. -Bean

All you're getting from me is personal opinion too, so we're in the same boat on that score.

I recall a little disagreement we had when you were juggling a problem on your property. Ultimately, you all wound up doing the expedient. We shall see what it got you as time goes by. I still think JO took you to the cleaners and you let him.

If I remember correctly, back then you were complaining because DW wouldn't let you sign a conract that you thought you should. A couple of weeks later he signed one that many think was no better. I think he succered you all in and you let him.

As I look back, I seem to recall the TWA pilots making concession after concession after concession to "safe" their Company. As it turn out they didn't but they did manage to be the "lowest bidders" for as long as it lasted. They lucked out when AMR picked up the pieces. The USAir pilots seem to be doing the same thing and getting nothing in return. Maybe it will work for them. If it doesn't, I can only hope they'll be as lucky down the road and find someone to pick up the pieces and them with it, when the house collapses on itself.

As you put it, what do I know; who the h**l am I anyway?

Best wishes.

 

[Vrefus]

Surplus,

Your thoughts and remedies are all well in good in theory however the core of the problem has not been addressed. Sure, management can be the enemy, but they are trying to do what they are paid to do. That is to keep costs at a minimum. As for U, the management has failed miserably. Why is it that U pays nearly 4 cents more per gallon of fuel than Continental? Four cents might not seem a lot but figure that up where in the first qt. alone U has burned 325 million gallons of fuel. If my math is correct that equates to 13 million dollars difference. Multiply that by four for the year and it's 52 mil. Why is it management has been allowed to get away with dung like this?

Now as for the core of the problem. IMHO, I feel it's disunity in the pilot ranks. First of all you have the older people, who have seen the good and the bad. They've paid their dues ( figuratively and literally) and they can see the day-to-day operation and know where things are FUBAR. The younger people haven't had the blinders taken off yet. They're just out of school and they think life is great because now they are flying decent equipment. It's doesn't matter to them that they have to live a nomads life because they are out from dad's roof where he has footed the bill for college and flight school. It doesn't matter to them that they have cut deals with the devil. All they care is that they are getting paid and l*&d. So to sum it up, call it infrastructure if you will, but people need to realize what they are doing and STOP placing such a low value on their profession. I'm not sure what the numbers are but I will venture to say that not all of us will ever make it to the majors. Maybe 10% if we're lucky, meaning 90% will not. Not very good odds there I would say. So again, think about what you're doing people and realize and understand when someone is trying to feed you a s#*t sandwich.

Again kudos, for your plan, but it can't work until there is true pilot unity across all the ranks.

 

[surplus1]

Vrefus,

I wish I didn't have to say it, but basically I agree with you that pilot unity is a major problem.

We might have some differences as to why it isn't there but its true that without it you don't get much done.

On the regional side of the fence you have too many young and inexperienced (not just in flying but in life) people as well as quite a few people who've been there 4 or 5 years all salivating over a mainline job that, as you point out, most will never get. Its not because they aren't qualified, its supply and demand.

There are well over 10,000 regional pilots. It would take about 1,000 mainline airplanes for all of them to get hired. Few look at reality. and realize that wherever they are, they need to leave it better than when they got there.

Thanks for the kudos. Its probably all wishful thinking. Particularly at USAG.