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Oil Rise Could Lead UAL to Ground Planes

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Andy

12/13/2012
Joined
Nov 28, 2001
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Oil Rise Could Lead UAL to Ground Planes
Wednesday November 7, 4:50 pm ET
By Dave Carpenter, AP Business Writer
United Exec Says Oil Price Increase Could Cause It to Ground Planes


CHICAGO (AP) -- United Airlines could ground up to 100 or more of its airplanes if soaring fuel prices ultimately cause consumers to buy fewer tickets, a top executive said Wednesday.

As crude oil prices approach $100 a barrel, Chief Financial Officer Jake Brace said there has not yet been any evidence of a falloff in demand, which has been strong since the second quarter.

But he said United, a unit of UAL Corp., and other airlines eventually will have to deal with skyrocketing prices by either raising fares further or reducing capacity rather than flying with too many empty seats.

"Either the industry passes on the higher fuel prices or we're going to have to lower capacity, but you have to make the equation work," he said in comments to a Goldman Sachs conference in New York.

Brace said United has a little more than 100 aircraft unencumbered by debt, including 50 Boeing 737s, "that we could ground whenever we needed to if the demand environment were such that it didn't make sense to fly those planes."

The 100 planes would represent more than a fifth of United's mainline fleet of about 460 aircraft, as of Dec. 31.

It also has 13 narrow-body airplanes and one 757 coming off lease in 2008 that also could help it adjust capacity.

"We can adjust the domestic fleet by putting planes on the ground," Brace said.

United fully controls planes that are unencumbered by debt, and would not have to answer to creditors if there were grounded.

United executives had said they expected 2008 capacity to be flat to up 1 percent, by shrinking domestic capacity by 3 percent to 4 percent and growing international capacity to offset that.

Brace said those plans were made when oil cost $20 less per barrel than it does now. If fare increases don't stick, capacity cuts are likely, he indicated.

"We're taking it under advisement right now," he said. "It's hard to tell what's going to happen to fuel prices from here. But we're getting ready to react to it."

Besides its mainline fleet, United also had 290 aircraft operated by regional partners as of Dec. 31.
 
I am a big shareholder in United. I have forwarded my plans to Glenn on how to unlock shareholder value for myself and executives like Glenn in these trying times.

First we will sell off UAL's FF program. Then, we will spin off maintenance and farm out any remaining maintenance to a country where Spanish is the official language. Third, we will sell off about 100 planes that we ground. Fourth, sell off the Pacific routes to the highest bidder. Last, announce a merger with Mesa. I have already gotten a commitment from Jon Orenstein to run the newly merged Skybus clone.

About this time, Glenn and I will cash out our stock.

When I think about the genius of this plan, I become upset. Upset because the employees of United just don't know how good they have it with visionaries like Glenn Tilton at the helm. You should all count your blessings every night.
 
more fear cards being played by management...what a joke oh yeah let's add regional capacity and I know the casm cost on an RJ is certainly very efficient...whatever
 
US Recession is going to be official at the end of the second quarter of the declining GDP numbers in December 07.

Expect other carriers to announce similar plans.

Get ready for the down cycle.

And remember all those who poop pooped my US Recession thread. Greenspan is the worst man to have ever run the federal reserve.
 
Lucky,

I bet the same people who are dismissing this and 'yawning' are the same ones who scoffed at the housing bubble and the subprime mess.

"Bubble, what bubble? Don't you know that real estate only goes up? A lower dollar is good for US export. There is no inflation. We cannot have a recession because we are the USA."

Denial is a powerful coping mechanism.

PS Write your elected officials to tell them to have Bernanke and the Fed knock it off with the rate cuts. You can't have a sound economy with a Third World currency.

These sky-high oil prices are a result of the roaching of the US dollar by the Fed, so, yes Mr. & Mrs. Airline-pilot-in-denial, the actions of the Federal Reserve Banksters, DO affect you.
 
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US Recession is going to be official at the end of the second quarter of the declining GDP numbers in December 07.

Expect other carriers to announce similar plans.

Get ready for the down cycle.

And remember all those who poop pooped my US Recession thread. Greenspan is the worst man to have ever run the federal reserve.


You forgot to throw ALPA under the bus....
 
Lucky,

I bet the same people who are dismissing this and 'yawning' are the same ones who scoffed at the housing bubble and the subprime mess.

"Bubble, what bubble? Don't you know that real estate only goes up? A lower dollar is good for US export. There is no inflation. We cannot have a recession because we are the USA."

Denial is a powerful coping mechanism.

PS Write your elected officials to tell them to have Bernanke and the Fed knock it off with the rate cuts. You can't have a sound economy with a Third World currency.

These sky-high oil prices are a result of the roaching of the US dollar by the Fed, so, yes Mr. & Mrs. Airline-pilot-in-denial, the actions of the Federal Reserve Banksters, DO affect you.

I'm not "yawing" to dismiss your concerns about the economy, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I am simply tired of the same old fear tactics and threatening rhetoric that our scumbag management team draws on time and again. By the way, after surviving two furloughs and damn near losing my own house in previous years, I don't consider myself to be in denial.
 
UAL,

Sorry if I misinterpreted your 'yawn'. I just deal with 'bubbleheads-in-denial' a lot.

Some of my language puts people off, but I'm trying to shake some people out of their "American Idol" induced stupor.

Where I come from, democracy is not a spectator sport.
 
Ground 'em. As soon as capacity is reduced ticket prices with climb. Very simple supply-and-demand.

I could care less of WHY the capacity is reduced.
 
I thought we just entered a new chapter of airline pilot hiring again.

Positive news, hiring, and call-backs at UAL, AA, DAL.

People at SWA living the dream.

etc etc

Now the chapter went into a horror story?

I just can't keep up anymore with this aviation industry.
 
Better get a Chair because my prediction is the music is going to stop sometime around August of next year. Maybe there is something to this peak oil stuff afterall.....
 
I thought we just entered a new chapter of airline pilot hiring again.

Positive news, hiring, and call-backs at UAL, AA, DAL.

People at SWA living the dream.

Remember, airlines hire to furlough.

And airlines cannot be trusted just like ALPA. Just ask ALPA what they think about age 60 after the majority said they did not want it. Just wanted to throw the ALPA one in for Rez.

But what will age 65 matter during the lay offs. Everyone effected by the lay offs is no where near age 60. The retirements would never prevent the furloughs according to ALPA. Do you believe ALPA now?
 
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Better get a Chair because my prediction is the music is going to stop sometime around August of next year. Maybe there is something to this peak oil stuff afterall.....

Your timing sounds about right. I expect loads to be down next summer.

As far as oil goes, when the world goes into a recession (and the entire world will be drug into this), the price of oil will fall.

I don't view Braces comments as threats to labor. This is the economic reality of operating aircraft that burn fossil fuel. He made these statements at a Goldman Sachs conference in New York. These comments were aimed at investors, not pilots.
Like it or not, management does not want to ground those aircraft; it means that profitability is on the decline. But they're letting Wall Street know that they've got a plan if oil keeps killing the industry.

As far as jobs at United, I've thought about whether or not I'll get furloughed again as a result of this. However, PW gave management such a wide scale on which to build monthly schedules that they can go down building minimum time lines and work off most excess pilots through attrition.
 

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