oil possibly going to $28 a barrel????

[blzr]

Catyaak Posted

while we are just about the reverse, tax representing 25% of the unit price at the pump.

Tax down here on gas, as shown on the pume is $1.20/gal Tax. I realixe that some of it is for roads and mtx, butI'm sure alot of that money gets wasted on other crap. Without that tax, gas here would be $0.99, wouldn't that be great.

 

[Full of LUV]

More evidence of Roman Empire Tendancies

Comparing fuel to prices to Europe is silly. For one thing, most Euro countries have zero of their own reserves. But mainly, prices are high there due to taxes, which has nothing do to with supply and demand. In general, taxes represent 75% of the price for a gallon (litres, whatever) of gas there, while we are just about the reverse, tax representing 25% of the unit price at the pump.

P.S. If we were the Roman Empire, we'd really be an Empire. We'd have invaded Canada a long time ago for their recources and we'd have 12 (or is it 13) new states probably all with funny Innuit names like that new one they have. We'd be getting free gas from our states in the Middle East, and for about the last 40 years (Sandifornia, Aramcohoma, etc.) and would've had no need for Alaska pipelines and such. The Romans wouldn't have piddled around with "buying" anything, and places like Bagdad and Fallujah would just be small mounds of B-52-produced gravel, and the few surviving Iraqis re-located to someplace like the Yukon where they'd be too busy trying to stay warm to get into too much trouble. That's what real empires typically do.

I could see the comparison to the Roman Empire, we just left our Colligula Presidential (Clinton) phase of development.
All of this energy talk is moot until this country finally decides abortion and gay sex policies. Talk about Rome is burning.

 

[#1 Windmilling]

This guy may not be crazy, a bit contrarian, but cetainly not nuts. There is a great article in the Dec 2004 issue of SmartMoney magazine discussing this very topic. I can't seem to get to it online, but the gist of it states that over a period of time the price of oil should fall to the marginal cost of production, which stands at about $16 today in the U.S. The parallels from the early 80s oil crisis (oil at 40 bucks with pundits screaming about the price going to 100) to today are interesting. Of course, no one knows how long the period of time will be, but there is economic evidence that this could hold true. In the early 80s, prices were sky high and the marginal cost to produce a barrel of oil was $12.32. During '86, the price per barrel fell to a low of $12.75. Could we see prices back at 20 bucks in a few years? Let's hope so.....I'll see if I can't cut and paste the article.

-W

 

[FL000]

Oil Prices Drop Sharply As Gas Plummets

1 hour, 52 minutes ago Business - AP

By BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer

Oil futures prices fell more than $1 a barrel Thursday afternoon, following the lead of gasoline futures, and brokers said there appeared to be further momentum lower.

"It's collapsing," said Ed Silliere, a broker at Energy Merchant Intermarket Futures in New York. "The market was extremely overbought."

Light, sweet crude for May delivery dropped $1.45 to $54.40 a barrel in afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. After an early decline of nearly 8 cents, gasoline futures recovered some lost ground and were down 4 cents to $1.62.

On Wednesday the U.S. Energy Department said the supply of unleaded gasoline stood at 212.3 million barrels, or 5.5 percent higher than last year. However, gasoline demand remained healthy, up 2 percent from a year ago.

Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures, said he expects high gasoline prices to persist as "people are accumulating inventories before the summer driving season."

The government report also showed that the nation's inventory of crude oil was 317.1 million barrels, or 8 percent higher than last year.

"U.S. oil demand is holding up well, and will help to support prices at lower levels," investment bank Barclays Capital said in a note. "There is ... nothing in the U.S. data to support another push up toward $60 yet."

Emori said the current oil market remains "highly exaggerated," and that if prices followed market fundamentals, they should hover around the low $40 range.

"Although demand still remains strong, supplies are normal, as seen from the U.S. reports," he said. "Even the current spare capacity is not that tight."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration significantly raised its forecast Thursday for gasoline and crude oil prices during the summer driving season, citing strong demand, tight refining capacity and new changes in gasoline specifications.

U.S. monthly average retail gasoline prices are seen peaking in May at a record high $2.35 a gallon, up from a $2.10 peak forecast in the EIA's previous monthly outlook.

U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are seen remaining above $50 a barrel for the rest of 2005 and 2006, the EIA said.

 

[skykid]

Oil futures prices fell more than $1 a barrel Thursday afternoon, following the lead of gasoline futures, and brokers said there appeared to be further momentum lower.

"It's collapsing," said Ed Silliere, a broker at Energy Merchant Intermarket Futures in New York. "The market was extremely overbought."

Daddy like, Daddy like.

 

[Clyde]

Funny thing is I expect to pay more for gas in a large Metro area like DFW, DTW, NYC, etc. but certainly not in such a small place like SDF. I know, I know, 16th largest city in America. How could I forget, I see the signs all over town bragging about it... This place is pathetic...


BBDC8

I saw on the local news last night that we are paying $0.35/gallon in taxes. 17 for the state and 18 fed, or vice-versa. I would be interested to see what the state does with it's share. I highly doubt they put it into the schools.

 

[kevdog]

I saw on the local news last night that we are paying $0.35/gallon in taxes. 17 for the state and 18 fed, or vice-versa. I would be interested to see what the state does with it's share. I highly doubt they put it into the schools.

Clyde, you almost sound like a liberal democrat, lol...just kidding! I would hope the taxes go into road construction and energy/environmental research & development. Schools and education are for the liberals.

 

[satpak77]

$28 a barrell?

never gonna happen

nothing like optimistic "feel good" talk in the industry of dreams and fantasies called "the airlines"

never ever gonna happen

but if it makes you feel good, you can choose to believe it, sure

 

[General Lee]

Read an article in USAToday (everything they print is TRUE) that quoted more analcysts saying that the world economy has peaked and will slow down and start to level out. I think that would include China and India. If that happens, then oil will plunge. Open Anwar (it will take 5-7 years), and there could be a world glut. Add eventual peace in the Middle East, (after democratic processes supposedly work) and not as much volatility. Never say never----even though there is a slim chance of that. We had many problems after and during Gulf War 1, and then things rebounded huge, and then fell again.......



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[pilot1704]

in my country gas price is over 6$ / Gallon

In my country Gas price is over 6$ / gallon

 

[Palerider957]

In my country Gas price is over 6$ / gallon

I'm sure most of that is tax. I don't know where you are from, but the Europeans keep electing socialist politicians and put up with absurd energy prices.

Having said that, there is NO reason to expect energy prices to fall. Every structural component of the industry is driving prices higher and will continue to do so.

We have a finite number of aging refineries, and no real possibility of licensing new ones. The third world (specifically China) is ravenous and will only see demand increase. European energy resources (specifically from Russia) have been diverted to China (instead of the West).

Shipping oil has become a major issue as tankers are now required to be double hulled, and many of older tankers are single-hull. A new ship costs around $200-300 million, and is quite a business risk, so owners/builders are slow to add capacity.

Our own demand is increasing as dumb a$$ Americans buy GIGANTIC SUV's--gotta look cool in the Starbucks parking lot---these SUV bonehead's are making all of our fuel prices higher. Does anyone who doesn't farm, or do heavy towing, really need a Hummer?

Unless we get VERY serious about alterate fuels, hybrids, and a rapid expansion of Nuclear power (the Ultra-liberal French are 70% nuclear), our way of life could suffer greatly.

If they legacy carriers are waiting for fuel prices to drop to execute their recovery plans, I think this strategy is fatally flawed....IMHO

Welcome to the revolution.....

 

[G100driver]

Does anyone who doesn't farm, or do heavy towing, really need a Hummer?

I do not farm or do heavy towing ... I need a Hummer.

You knew someone was going to say it.

 

[General Lee]

I'm sure most of that is tax. I don't know where you are from, but the Europeans keep electing socialist politicians and put up with absurd energy prices.

Having said that, there is NO reason to expect energy prices to fall. Every structural component of the industry is driving prices higher and will continue to do so.

We have a finite number of aging refineries, and no real possibility of licensing new ones. The third world (specifically China) is ravenous and will only see demand increase. European energy resources (specifically from Russia) have been diverted to China (instead of the West).

Shipping oil has become a major issue as tankers are now required to be double hulled, and many of older tankers are single-hull. A new ship costs around $200-300 million, and is quite a business risk, so owners/builders are slow to add capacity.

Our own demand is increasing as dumb a$$ Americans buy GIGANTIC SUV's--gotta look cool in the Starbucks parking lot---these SUV bonehead's are making all of our fuel prices higher. Does anyone who doesn't farm, or do heavy towing, really need a Hummer?

Unless we get VERY serious about alterate fuels, hybrids, and a rapid expansion of Nuclear power (the Ultra-liberal French are 70% nuclear), our way of life could suffer greatly.

If they legacy carriers are waiting for fuel prices to drop to execute their recovery plans, I think this strategy is fatally flawed....IMHO

Welcome to the revolution.....

I guess you know what you are talking about and this analyst doesn't....... Yeah, ok. He did give some reasons for his thinking. Please refute each one for me. If the world economy stops growing and levels off, and there is sufficient supply, will prices continue to go up? We have plenty of supply right now, but the speculators and hedge funds are bumping up the prices and cashing in. Maybe you should re-read his article. How are SUV sales doing lately by the way? How are GM and Ford doing? (answer:Crappy)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Clyde]

Clyde, you almost sound like a liberal democrat, lol...just kidding! I would hope the taxes go into road construction and energy/environmental research & development. Schools and education are for the liberals.

LOL!! Thanks, I needed that.

 

[Palerider957]

General Lee
Yes, fuel will come down a bit, but as stated it's a cyclical commodity. The real question is where will the prices bracket. If you look at the resistance and support pricing, you can see the median for the past several years has been steadily rising.


I believe the anaylst was speaking to prices retreating from their current level, and no doubt he is right. But overall prices will continue to trend upward.....you yourself mentioned gas at 97 cents a gallon, can you realistically imagine a return to this?

Also, we are heading into the summer travel season, which will sharply increase demand (for both automotive and jet-a) Many cities require the use of blended fuel during summer, which complicates delivery and again, increases price (ask anyone in Chicago, or LA).

You mentioned the world economy, yes it will eventually level off, but when???? China, India, and the like are only BEGINNING to go through their industrial revolution. They will be ferocious consumers of pretroleum for many years.

General, all I am saying is that airlines had better adapt to fundamentally higher fuel prices. DAL needs to dump the 732, and Mad Dog, and any other gas hog.

This analyst paints fairly rosey picture, but the analysts of MSNBC are openly talking about oil spikng to $100 a barrell. Who's right?? Who knows?

Of course, I'm just a rambling regional pilot.

 

[satpak77]

the market is always right

Read an article in USAToday (everything they print is TRUE) that quoted more analcysts saying that the world economy has peaked and will slow down and start to level out. I think that would include China and India. If that happens, then oil will plunge. Open Anwar (it will take 5-7 years), and there could be a world glut. Add eventual peace in the Middle East, (after democratic processes supposedly work) and not as much volatility. Never say never----even though there is a slim chance of that. We had many problems after and during Gulf War 1, and then things rebounded huge, and then fell again.......

the MARKET ITSELF determines oil prices. DO NOT try to out-smart the market, it will always prove you wrong. Where will oil be next year? How about tomorrow? NOBODY KNOWS. To attempt to predict or to subscribe to others who claim to know (did the above analysts recommend "BUY" for Enron?), is foolish.

Oil is now at $53 a barrell. THAT is the price of oil, right now. Period, End of story.

 

[General Lee]

General Lee
Yes, fuel will come down a bit, but as stated it's a cyclical commodity. The real question is where will the prices bracket. If you look at the resistance and support pricing, you can see the median for the past several years has been steadily rising.


I believe the anaylst was speaking to prices retreating from their current level, and no doubt he is right. But overall prices will continue to trend upward.....you yourself mentioned gas at 97 cents a gallon, can you realistically imagine a return to this?

Also, we are heading into the summer travel season, which will sharply increase demand (for both automotive and jet-a) Many cities require the use of blended fuel during summer, which complicates delivery and again, increases price (ask anyone in Chicago, or LA).

You mentioned the world economy, yes it will eventually level off, but when???? China, India, and the like are only BEGINNING to go through their industrial revolution. They will be ferocious consumers of pretroleum for many years.

General, all I am saying is that airlines had better adapt to fundamentally higher fuel prices. DAL needs to dump the 732, and Mad Dog, and any other gas hog.

This analyst paints fairly rosey picture, but the analysts of MSNBC are openly talking about oil spikng to $100 a barrell. Who's right?? Who knows?

Of course, I'm just a rambling regional pilot.

I think you are correct on a lot of that. And, we do need to eventually get rid of those gas guzzling airplanes like the 73S, and we are. I can see us eventually having a 737 type family of narrowbodies (the -700 up to the -900, since we have new pay rates for both of those besides the 738), and one or two types of widebodies for INTL. But remember, a fuel surcharge added to the ticket can make up for that high cost fuel, and we have had 4 of those as of late. When I spoke of cheap gas---that was 76 cents a gallon in Buckhead in 1997. Will we ever see that again? I would say NO. But, will we always see $2.30 a gallon? I bet not. It will go up and down, and Summer driving will increase it again, followed by a dip in the Fall. It is a cycle, but the baseline is now way above where it should be due to a few reasons-----speculators and hedge funds being one, world economic growth being another, and additional outside forces. Those include colder wx in the NE, refineries switching blends and being down for maintenance (always in the Spring), and turmoil in the Middle East that scares everyone. If any of those things change for the better, the price of oil will come down. When Bush finally fills the strategic reserve, then supposedly we will have an extra 250,000 barrels a day, which will help with supply. Nobody else has acknowledged that. And, the World Bank and their people stated yesterday that the world economy will level out soon. That could stop the sharp climb of oil prices. We shall see....



Satpak,

The price of oil is influenced by outside forces, not only supply. The hedge fund people are making a killing, and oil is the hottest thing in the market today. Those people, along with speculators who are spooked when the temp in the NE dips one degree, determine the price of oil. The Arab countires are just enjoying the ride.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[firstthird]

a month old but still relevant. prescient even. every time we start hearing about a 'new paradigm' or 'everything has changed' hold onto your wallet. oil in the late 70's early 80's. tech stocks in the late 90's. real estate now.

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/larrykudlow/lk20050311.shtml


[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]$55 oil won't last[/font]
[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Larry Kudlow [/font][font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif](archive)[/font]


[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]March 11, 2005[/font][font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif] | Print | Send[/font]

[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]When I put a $55 barrel of oil on the table and look at it from all angles, there’s no way the current price can be justified. As a free-market disciple, I am compelled to accept the market’s verdict: $55 a barrel. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to last.

Today’s oil episode is demand-driven, quite unlike the supply shocks of 25 years ago. Back then, OPEC withheld oil because they disagreed with the U.S. policy-tilt towards Israel. Additionally, under Presidents Ford and Carter, U.S. energy policy generated strict price controls and supply allocations, a most bizarre policy combination that kept oil from those population centers most in need of it.

Oil is certainly flowing today, but at much higher prices. In fact, in real inflation-adjusted terms, today’s oil price is the highest since 1983. To a certain extent, we owe this to a favorable development: the global spread of market capitalism in emerging economies such as China, India, and Eastern Europe. At the margin, the increasing oil demands of these countries have undoubtedly boosted the barrel price.

It is instructive to note how much higher oil prices have jumped in comparison to other commodities. From the 2001 low, oil has increased 214 percent. Over the same period, an index of metals -- equally in demand from the emerging economies -- has risen 122 percent. Seemingly along for the ride, gold prices have increased 73 percent. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 stock index has rallied 55 percent from its late 2002 low point while the broader Wilshire 5000 has gained 62 percent.

The fact that oil has increased so much more than these commodity and financial-asset prices is important. It suggests that the oil sector is way out of line. Increased China demand cannot alone explain it -- over-speculation is also a culprit.

It is rumored that hedge funds have used low interest rates to leverage and borrow for the purchase of oil market contracts. Big oil companies may also be speculating on higher future oil prices, with or without leveraged borrowing. It may also be that tanker companies have slowed down their deliveries as they wait for still higher prices.

Fortunately, the U.S. economy is much less susceptible nowadays to the tax-hike impact of higher oil prices. Numerous studies have shown that greater efficiencies in oil and energy usage have lowered our vulnerability to energy shocks by roughly 50 percent in relation to 25 years ago. Rather than stagflating, today’s economy is quite healthy.

So, what to do?

Ultimately, the answer to high oil prices is a lot more production. That’s exactly what the Bush administration intends to do. New Energy Secretary Sam Bodman has been put in place to implement Bush policies for greater nuclear energy use, increased use of clean coal, the development of a free-trade national electricity grid, and the foreign coordination of liquid natural gas. Also in the policy mix is new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

Is Bodman the right man for this job? Absolutely. Bodman, a chemical engineering scientist who has taught at MIT, was the chief operating officer of the super-sized Fidelity mutual fund company and is a former venture capitalist. This is a guy who will quietly manage the U.S. effort to break out of the current OPEC-reliant paradigm and shift to the development of multiple new energy sources.

We’re already seeing signs of progress. The Excelon utility company has just received an early site permit for nuclear power, and Duke Power has nearly completed its combined operating license permit, which includes a pre-approved reactor design.

Meanwhile, there’s still a lot of oil out there. “Hard Green” author Peter Huber has suggested that there are 3 trillion barrels of oil buried in Venezuela and Alberta, Canada. Washington policy analyst James Lucier also notes that individual states are taking matters into their own hands by exercising states’ rights to drill on the outer continental shelf. In Virginia, Democratic governor Mark Warner is expected to sign an OCS drilling bill from his legislature to do exactly that.

The key point is to let markets work. Free-market pricing will best allocate the shifts in both demand and supply. Spiking energy prices will reduce consumption. They will also attract capital investment leading to much greater production. That is, if government policies allow markets to work. In the meantime, small investors thinking about jumping on the gravy train of higher oil prices should beware. Bubbles happen. And a major oil bubble could be on the verge of bursting.

[/font]

[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font]

[font=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]©2005 [/font]
​

 

[satpak77]

Satpak,

The price of oil is influenced by outside forces, not only supply. The hedge fund people are making a killing, and oil is the hottest thing in the market today. Those people, along with speculators who are spooked when the temp in the NE dips one degree, determine the price of oil. The Arab countires are just enjoying the ride.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Please elaborate how "the hedge fund people" are making a killing? You really think hedge fund traders can manipulate the price of oil? You kidding me right? You actually think that?

Oil price is affected by two things, PERIOD

1. Physical supply, how much physical oil indeed exists on the planet
2. PERCIEVED supply, or "perception of Point 1" above

NOTHING ELSE

if people get scared by pipeline explosions in Iraq, reports of not-decreasing SUV sales, reports of China drinking oil away, the price goes up, for REASON 1 and/or REASON 2 above. NOTHING ELSE

Now, are hedge fund people making a killing? YES, but it is for the reasons above, they "ride the trend" and put money in the bank on it. I know, I trade Crude Oil Futures.

later

some links

http://www.turtletrader.com/noprediction.html

http://www.turtletrader.com/trader-jones.html

http://www.turtletrader.com/trader-henry.html

http://www.turtletrader.com/trader-druz.html

 

[Spectre]

Milk costs $3.50/gallon and it just comes straight out of a cow from Wisconsin. Oil has to undergo an expensive refinery process to make gasoline. If it's imported, it has to travel across an entire ocean. $2.30/gallon of gas is still a pretty good deal!