OIL CRISIS VIDEO-Peak Oil Introduction

[caliginousface]

jetflyer, which books have you read? I'm not much of a reader but serious stuff i'll read. I was looking to pick up "The Long Emergency," "Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update," Professor Deffeyes book, and the End of Suburbia DVD. I'm waiting to complete my CFI so I can have some money to buy this stuff though.

 

[jetflyer]

I'm going to add Amazon.com links to the books I'm recommending for those of you interested in looking into them. Plus the reviews at amazon.com from other readers will surely be better and more in depth than mine. I also own "The End of Suburbia" and two other Peak Oil documentaries.

The Long Emergency is a good book. I've read it. It lays out many of the problems mankind is facing in the coming years especially peak oil and how it's going to be a slow worsening of our way of life.

Twilight in the Desert : The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy Great book written by Cheney and Bush advisor Matthew Simmons. He is one of the most outspoken people on this topic and has appeared on CNBC many times, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. This book is very educational on oil production methods. For this alone it is a good read. It also mainly deals with Saudi Arabia and how they're probably at peak now.

The End of Oil : On the Edge of a Perilous New World This was the first book I ever read. Very optimistic book. Paul Roberts when he wrote this was under the impression that we had 10 years till peak oil. He's said lately that we're within less than 3 years. He has become much more doomer after he wrote this.

The Coming Economic Collapse : How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel This book lays out the problem very well and is actually a sequel to a more optimistic book written a couple years back that I read where he thought we had time. He now thinks it's too late and that we're going to collapse economically. He lays out a very convincing case.

A Thousand Barrels a Second : The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World Very great book showing from history that oil constraints cause economic hard times. He examines in depth the oil embargoes of the 1970's and gives his take on what peak oil will do to the economy in the future.

Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil ULTIMATE Conspiracy theory book. He thinks 9/11 intelligence had been received as many as 6 months beforehand and 9/11 was ALLOWED to happen by the neocons so that we could have a new PEARL Harbor to give us a reason to go into the middle east and gain control of where the last remaining oil reserves of the world are. Very convincing case and the evidence is amazing. This is definitely a possibility. If he is correct we're going into Iran and it's unstoppable. Also we may according to him be fighting China in the future to maintain the status as the lone superpower of the world.

Search Peak Oil at Amazon.com and read the reviews is the best advice I could give.
That new book by Jeremy Leggett also looks good: The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe

Knowledge is power,
Jet

 

[Wiggums]

jetflyer, which books have you read? I'm not much of a reader but serious stuff i'll read. I was looking to pick up "The Long Emergency," "Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update," Professor Deffeyes book, and the End of Suburbia DVD. I'm waiting to complete my CFI so I can have some money to buy this stuff though.

James Knustler, the author of "The Long Emergency" is a little too radical for my taste. He also predicted the end of the world due to Y2k, which as know isn't what happened. I would try to stay away from the Knustler/Saviner crowd that say our world as we know it is going to end.

An interesting read is this blog:
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

Unlike most counter peak oil sites that come up with crazy ideas such as abotic oil and hydrogen economy, this site has some common sense solutions.

 

[jetflyer]

Wiggums,
The author of that site is a longtime optimist that goes by "John Denver" at Peakoil.com and I think he said he was going to quit posting on that blog. I'll check into it. He said he was quitting because peak oil seemed like it was going to be a non-event and he was getting bored. Something to that extent.

EDITED TO ADD: I checked his site. I guess he decided to start blogging again. He's there.

I personally think he's wrong, and that it will be a very significant event in mankind's history. We haven't even began a decline in oil production yet.

You are right though and it is very good and important to see what the optimists say.
Of the books I posted the largest optimist would have to be Peter Tertzakian the author of the "1,000 Barrels a Second" book. It would be a great first read for anyone. He still thinks we'll see very hard economic times but that we'll work through them.

Jet

 

[Wiggums]

I guess my point is that the future lies somewhere between John Denver and Matt Saviner.

Much is going to depend on how easily the American people adapt. Honestly, we could live on half the food and half the fuel that we use today. Sure, you'd drive a Civic instead of a Tahoe, and be eating beans instead of steak, but life would go one. However, if people have to led kicking and screaming into a new, energy poor future, then this is where we could see large civil unrest.

 

[jetflyer]

I think peak oil is just one problem facing mankind in the U.S. and world.

Social security and medicare and the out of control financial deficits and trade imbalance are just as large of problems which couldn't be coming at a worse time.

There is a housing bubble that couldn't be coming along at a worse time.

Jim Puplava, at financialsense.com says that with peak oil and the many other economic problems coming at the same time that we're going to face a perfect finacial superstorm that will probably lead America into the next Great Depression. I think this is very likely and that the U.S. dollar is going to be devalued a lot in the near future because of the global imbalances that even the World Bank, the G8 countries, and the International Monetary Fund say are out of control and need to be fixed. The IMF even said that they had a goal to devalue the U.S. dollar by 33-50% to fix the global financial imbalances.

The U.S.'s dominance as the sole economic superpower is probably going to come to an end. The rest of the world is going to catch up very quickly in my opinion.

Jet

 

[caliginousface]

James Knustler, the author of "The Long Emergency" is a little too radical for my taste. He also predicted the end of the world due to Y2k, which as know isn't what happened. I would try to stay away from the Knustler/Saviner crowd that say our world as we know it is going to end.

An interesting read is this blog:
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

Unlike most counter peak oil sites that come up with crazy ideas such as abotic oil and hydrogen economy, this site has some common sense solutions.

I don't know if you can debunk something all energy analysts study.

I'll keep that in mind though when/if I read "The Long Emergency." The "Limits to Growth" book is supposed to be a pretty good book.

 

[caliginousface]

I think peak oil is just one problem facing mankind in the U.S. and world.

For sure. I want actually want to leave the country eventually and live "the simple life."

The U.S.'s dominance as the sole economic superpower is probably going to come to an end. The rest of the world is going to catch up very quickly in my opinion.

Jet

I think the US's days as a superpower period is coming to an end.

 

[jetflyer]

The thing is the peakoildebunked blogger thinks peak oil is coming. He doesn't dispute that. He even thinks we're close to peak oil now.

He is just an optimist about it and thinks it will be a non-event like Y2K. He is debunking basically the theories that we're going to be back in the stone age after this is over.

I happen to think it won't be cannibalism and doomsday either, but much worse than him.

 

[jetflyer]

I forgot to mention the tapped out U.S. consumer with a negative savings rate now. Our savings rate has only been lower in the great depression!

Raise the interest rates and readjust people's ARM Home loans upwards just 1% on a $500,000 home and that takes $5,000 more out of people's pockets every year! Raise the ARM loans 3-4 percentage points and these people are crippled financially and probably will be filing bankruptcy.

Oh but the bankruptcy laws were just changed. Did the credit card companies that lobbied for this know something!?

Also consumers were using their homes as ATMs for a long time. That is ending and is going to take a lot of money out of everyone's hands.

The economy couldn't be in worse shape to face the peak oil problem.

God help us and let all this be like the peakoildebunked guy says a non-event!,
Jet