NWA new China/India routes with first 787

[jetflier]

Northwest eyes new India and China routes - Airline Business
January 2008

Northwest is looking to launch new services to China, India and possibly
Vietnam in 2009 using its first batch of Boeing 787s.

The carrier has 18 787s on order for delivery from February 2009 and will be
the first US carrier to place the new aircraft into service. "There are two
logical long-haul opportunities for Northwest - China and India," says
Northwest vice-president of international alliances Nat Peiper.

Northwest now serves Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai via Tokyo, and Mumbai
via Amsterdam. The 787 gives it the flexibility to serve these and other
markets in China or India non-stop. "From a route planning perspective the
787 is a dream," Pieper says.

He adds that Vietnam is also "a market we're interested in". Northwest may
serve Vietnam non-stop or via Tokyo, where it has unlimited fifth-freedom
rights and has a small Boeing 757 base used to serve intra-Asia routes.

 

[jke406]

I'm sure they'd love to do these things.

Unfortunately, these decisions will be made in ATL.

 

[clippyrip]

I'm sure they'd love to do these things.

Unfortunately, these decisions will be made in ATL.

We'll see about that....

 

[Diesel-9]

South Africa and New Zealand studies already done for the 787's. Along with many other new destinations.

 

[~~~^~~~]

If the decision is made in ATL, the 787 slots will probably be sold. It is another type.

Delta thinks the 777 is a better aircraft for its' needs and I'm guessing the 787 slots could be sold at a considerable profit. Besides, Delta is not going to want all the competition on those routes. They'll run the traffic through a hub and put it on a larger jet.

Unfortunately, a DAL / NWA merger IS about reducing capacity to drive up prices.

 

[~~~^~~~]

South Africa and New Zealand studies already done for the 787's. Along with many other new destinations.

I can see that, along with some Aussie trips. The 787 may just change the international game like the 767 did to the 747.

Delta's decision nas been to buy 777's and refit the 767-300ER's with winglets and possibly a -400 style flight deck.

 

[On Your Six]

If the decision is made in ATL, the 787 slots will probably be sold. It is another type.

Delta thinks the 777 is a better aircraft for its' needs and I'm guessing the 787 slots could be sold at a considerable profit. Besides, Delta is not going to want all the competition on those routes. They'll run the traffic through a hub and put it on a larger jet.

Unfortunately, a DAL / NWA merger IS about reducing capacity to drive up prices.

I highly doubt that. NWA wouldn't receive all of the 787s in year one - the deliveries would be spread out. Delta partially made the decision to retrofit the 767s based upon the long lead time for 787s (it missed the boat on orders).

Plus, if there will be such a huge emphasis on high-margin international travel going forward, why would you give up the flexibility the 787 could bring? That would be idiotic. You forget that many other competing airlines will be getting 787s and directly competing with Delta in the future - it can't be hobbled by inflexible fleet types. It's a different world with much more emphasis on point-to-point long haul traffic (Singapore, ANA, Qantas and other airlines will use their upcoming 787s in the same targeted fashion). The 777 is great, but it might be overkill in some thin markets. I am sure Delta will likely add many more 777s to the fleet over the next few years, but I doubt Delta will eventually replace the 767-300 fleet entirely with 777s. The 767-300s can't last forever and the NWA 787 order would be a good start (spread out over the next 5-10 years).

With my crystal ball I would predict that the 767-300 fleet would be gradually reduced as the 787s come on board (including options and leased aircraft from ILFC). The 767-400s, on the other hand, would likely be kept because they are real money producers on European flights. The 787s would excel on the Asian and longer-distance routes. It's all about high-margin international travel in the future...

 

[jke406]

Delta partially made the decision to retrofit the 767s based upon the long lead time for 787s (it missed the boat on orders).

Delta "missing the boat" and foregoing that debt will be the difference in having the new HQ in ATL and not MSP....and being called "Delta" and not "Northworst."

Try again...who "missed the boat?"

 

[ultrarunner]

Unfortunately, a DAL / NWA merger IS about reducing capacity to drive up prices.

It's supposed to be about that!

The sooner the better!

 

[General Lee]

If the decision is made in ATL, the 787 slots will probably be sold. It is another type.

Delta thinks the 777 is a better aircraft for its' needs and I'm guessing the 787 slots could be sold at a considerable profit. Besides, Delta is not going to want all the competition on those routes. They'll run the traffic through a hub and put it on a larger jet.

Unfortunately, a DAL / NWA merger IS about reducing capacity to drive up prices.

Delta would not give up on the 787s, that is why they never ordered any at the Paris Airshow, NWA already had some. Boeing is also an important creditor of ours. We will have 777LRs, 787s, and maybe a few 744s doing cargo out of ANC, using those all important cargo only rights into Asia.

As far as reducing capacity, a lot of that will be via RJs. Sure, there could be some DC9s parkings, but not all at once, and maybe a replacement will be found to cover them, like those 100+ MD90s that are still out there, at a bargain price. We have already done the check outs on a lot of them, and they are all getting replaced by A320s eventually at those other airlines (Saudia, China Eastern, China Northern, JAS, etc).

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

It's supposed to be about that!

The sooner the better!

You can't just expect to reduce capacity and think it will stay that way. Southwest and others would love to take up the slack, and they will. A merger can reduce the fat at both airlines, like certain redundant departments (accounting, reservations, etc), redundant job positions--can't have two CFOs etc, and plenty of ticket counter space. (why have two ticket counters at one airport?) There is sure to be savings that way, but dumping planes and capacity will allow the LCCs to enter markets they could not before, and get free terminal space without paying for it.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

Delta partially made the decision to retrofit the 767s based upon the long lead time for 787s (it missed the boat on orders).

I think the primary driver for the decision to pass on the 787 was the desire to avoid taking on long term debt at the beginning of a down cycle. The average age of the 767-300ER fleet is just shy of 12 years. The aircraft just isn't ready to be replaced yet and is doing a fine job. With a few inexpenses modifications the aircraft should do fine for the next decade. I agree that the 767 will need to be replaced, just not yet.

In the interim, DAL's international expansion is better served with additional 777s, 8 firm deliveries in '08 & '09, redeploying more 767-400s from domestic service to international service and taking delivery of 4 more 757ERs in Q1 '08. Domestic capacity will come down some as the domestic wide bodied aircraft continue to move to the international side with only 7 B737-700s scheduled for delivery in '08.

 

[FDJ2]

Delta would not give up on the 787s, that is why they never ordered any at the Paris Airshow, NWA already had some.

General, a merger is not a foregone conclusion yet. Plenty of speculation, but no announcement.

If DAL needed the 787 in the next 2-4 years, DAL would have ordered them. The ER fleet still has another decade+ before it's ready to be replaced. DAL needs more 777s. not 787s. There will be a time for the 787, it's just not now. We're heading into a down cycle, keeping the balance sheets in good order is more important than ordering aircraft you may want, but don't need.

 

[123]

I think the primary driver for the decision to pass on the 787 was the desire to avoid taking on long term debt at the beginning of a down cycle..... DAL's international expansion is better served with additional 777s, 8 firm deliveries in '08 & '09, redeploying more 767-400s from domestic service to international service and taking delivery of 4 more 757ERs in Q1 '08. Domestic capacity will come down some as the domestic wide bodied aircraft continue to move to the international side with only 7 B737-700s scheduled for delivery in '08.

You say that DAL doesn't want to take on long term debt. So is delta aquiring these aircraft with an off balance sheet type aquisition?

 

[ultrarunner]

You say that DAL doesn't want to take on long term debt. So is delta aquiring these aircraft with an off balance sheet type aquisition?

I think what the poster meant is that a 787 order would have committed quite a bit of debt.

Most of what is coming on-line are used birds.