NWA Early Retirements with Permanent Part-time Flying.

[patrickdc9]

Source is 2007 Aviation Daily statistics. They also match ALPA's report and include lease costs whether they be cap. leases or operating leases.

You point is correct about scope and well taken.

The talk is that fuel prices have overcome scope concerns. But, their own data shows that they are wrong. For instance:

CASM (again)
MD88: 7.5
CRJ900: 7.3

Yes, that is close - but - the CRJ900's can be financed with SkyWest's money, not Delta's precious cash. And, airlines like SkyWest and Republic will pay big up front bucks to buy in to codeshare arrangements. RAH gave US Air something like 300 million and SkyWest paid $425,000,000.00 for ASA.

I'm hoping the more militant NWA guys help fix our perspectives on scope. I personally would like to get Compass on the list as a way to start returning this flying to mainline.

"Militant"? Aren't Delta guys the ones who wear the Navy Admiral uniforms?

 

[~~~^~~~]

Former Marines run the uniform requirements. Good luck trying to convince them that Delta needs to change.

I'm more concerned about whether I have a job than if I wear a hat while grabbing coffee in the terminal.

Correction - there are no "former" Marines.

 

[Superpilot92]

Are you talking about the DC9's ?

160 pre bankruptcy, and 87 now...then you can hammer him for being 27 off...but, I believe the point he is making is that by summers end another 27 will be parked and that will leave a fleet of about sixty, we will already of absorbed the fleet shrinkage into our staffing and this will be done well before any SLI or actual merger consumation.

Thats correct

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas SP,

Not sure where the DAL hatin' is coming from all of a sudden. Last word I got was that joint contract talks were going to be expedited, and that everyone was on the same page.

I mean, RA himself said that EVERYONE was going to be treated equally and that a joint contract, quickly, was in everyone's best interest.

Funny that the DAL guys only push the company line when it's in their favor.

Nu

 

[PCL_128]

Correction - there are no "former" Marines.

Good thing you threw that in before Occam showed up.

 

[General Lee]

Heyas SP,

Not sure where the DAL hatin' is coming from all of a sudden. Last word I got was that joint contract talks were going to be expedited, and that everyone was on the same page.

I mean, RA himself said that EVERYONE was going to be treated equally and that a joint contract, quickly, was in everyone's best interest.

Funny that the DAL guys only push the company line when it's in their favor.

Nu

Yeah, "outside forces" are not at work here.... Have you read the news lately Nu? Things aren't great for many airlines, and stand alone airlines(legacies anyway) really aren't doing great. Could we do better with a large network that really does connect the world?(Asia, Europe, S. America, Africa, and domestic) Maybe. It sure seems legacies with large gaps in their INTL networks aren't doing as well, and seem to be parking a lot of planes. Hopefully we can get a JOINT contract finished, and the SLI too. Conditions around us aren't getting better it seems, if you didn't notice because you don't trust anyone......

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

Heyas SP,

Not sure where the DAL hatin' is coming from all of a sudden. Last word I got was that joint contract talks were going to be expedited, and that everyone was on the same page.

I mean, RA himself said that EVERYONE was going to be treated equally and that a joint contract, quickly, was in everyone's best interest.

Funny that the DAL guys only push the company line when it's in their favor.

Nu

My guess is that the Delta line guys are scared to death of SLI while the DC9's and 747-200's are on the property and the NWA guys like "expedited" for the very same reason.

SuperPilot92:
The scope of the new combined company will be what dictates what happens with the dc9s. Our scope prohibits just parking all of them so it has yet to be seen what happens under the merged carrier. If they are parked after the merger than thats a DAL decision because under a stand alone NWA it wouldnt be an issue right now. You guys are arguing about something that hasnt even happened yet, relax.

Saying a DAL guy shouldn't be effected by aircraft retirements on the NWA side is like saying you have no right to any of the aircraft NWA brings to the table including the 787s that will eventually be here.

Super is already trying to blame Delta for parking the jurassic jets and taking the position that Delta should take a seniority hit.

We support immediate parity, SLI not so much. Delta pilots are pretty much guaranteed to lose. I've already been out on a job interview trying to ensure plans B & C are lined up. Planning for the worst, hoping for the best....

 

[~~~^~~~]

87 now...then you can hammer him for being 27 off...

87-50(ish)=37(ish).

So after noting that your friend is off by 75% (ish) I will comment that your math is also 33% (ish) off.

Taken together, your math is only 100% ish wrong

Just kidding.

 

[NuGuy]

My guess is that the Delta line guys are scared to death of SLI while the DC9's and 747-200's are on the property and the NWA guys like "expedited" for the very same reason.

I've already been out on a job interview trying to ensure plans B & C are lined up. Planning for the worst, hoping for the best....

Ahhh, OK. Got it.

You're only for the merger when it works to your perceived advantage. Yet you express surprise when the NWA guys are against it for the same reason.

I'll give credit where credit is due. DALPA has some pretty crafty guys/gals (props to their "spin machine").

But guess what? So does NWALPA. Guys and gals who are experienced with mergers and recalcitrant management and KNOW how to get their point across, even if not very delicately. Call them "thugs" if you want, but those are the kind of guys I want with me when I go into a bad neighborhood, which, as you pointed out, is EXACTLY where we're heading.

By the way, do you actually know how many DC-9s are PARKED versus RETIRED? The distinction is pretty important. Think "accumulator".

No lease payments, no hull insurance, just pull the covers off, add fuel and go flying. Heck, you don't even have to update the database.

Sorry your RJ buddies are getting jammed. Sucks. NWALPA, XJ and PCL had an industry changing agreement that would have prevented a lot of angst, but they didn't want to pay the freight on what came their way.

Nu

 

[Superpilot92]

Super is already trying to blame Delta for parking the jurassic jets and taking the position that Delta should take a seniority hit.

We support immediate parity, SLI not so much. ....

If your going to try and "call me out" on my position, please include everything. Re-read what i said, see below~

"Saying a DAL guy shouldn't be effected by aircraft retirements on the NWA side is like saying you have no right to any of the aircraft NWA brings to the table including the 787s that will eventually be here."

we ALL should have EQUAL effects from the merger. DAL guys could be effected by the DC9s in a good or bad way but they will also be effected by the 787s and everything else NWA brings to the merger. We are all going to see changes with the new company including seniority and some will be effected more than other but thats part of a merger, right? In the long run it should be a good deal for all. Mergers are when you merge, and that includes winning and losing. The future plans of the new DAL will be just that, new plans. Growth and success will come at the expense of both NWA and DAL. I wasn't "blaming DAL" for anything, i was just saying if that happens under the merged carrier than its a new DAL decision, meaning OUR company's decision. You choose to point out half of my comments and surprise surprise you did so that it would best suit your comments. How unusual

 

[FDJ2]

Funny that the DAL guys only push the company line when it's in their favor.

Nu

Why on earth would we push the company line, whatever that is, when it is not.

When our interests are aligned with management's, there is no need to spit on their shoes. IOW, no need for a confrontational relationship, when there is no confrontation. When our interests and management's are at odds, our relationship changes to a more adversarial relationship. It's that simple.

 

[FDJ2]

When DC-9s are parked, it will not because of the merger, it will be because, as a 35 year old airframe, it no longer makes sense to fly them. If anything they'll be around a little longer with the merger.

You don't see too many 707's flying part 121 do you? You won't see too many DC-9s in the near future either.

 

[NuGuy]

Why on earth would we push the company line, whatever that is, when it is not.

When our interests are aligned with management's, there is no need to spit on their shoes. IOW, no need for a confrontational relationship, when there is no confrontation. When our interests and management's are at odds, our relationship changes to a more adversarial relationship. It's that simple.

EXACTLY, so don't get yer panties in a wad when the NWA guys object to the way things go down when it is NOT in OUR interests.

But that's moot at the moment. Things are going to happen...in a hurry.

BTW, Moak just put out a pretty decent letter. Might calm some jangled nerves. We'll see.

Nu

 

[Superpilot92]

When DC-9s are parked, it will not because of the merger, it will be because, as a 35 year old airframe, it no longer makes sense to fly them. If anything they'll be around a little longer with the merger.

You don't see too many 707's flying part 121 do you? You won't see too many DC-9s in the near future either.

Well what i meant by that is that under a stand alone NWA they all wouldn't be parked immediately without big changes at NWA because of our scope language. Therefore we have protections on our jobs and NWA would need to replace them if they planned on parking all of them. Not to mention NWA wouldn't get rid of them immediately because we need those aircraft for our domestic feed since we dont have anything to replace them with right now. Under the merged carrier i think we will see additional 737s or airbus's coming as replacements in the future. We'll see.

 

[Superpilot92]

EXACTLY, so don't get yer panties in a wad when the NWA guys object to the way things go down when it is NOT in OUR interests.

But that's moot at the moment. Things are going to happen...in a hurry.

BTW, Moak just put out a pretty decent letter. Might calm some jangled nerves. We'll see.

Nu

What letter? Is it on the MEC page?

 

[~~~^~~~]

NWA wouldn't get rid of them immediately because we need those aircraft for our domestic feed since we dont have anything to replace them with right now.

Why do you write this? You are half way into your 76 large RJ order to replace them.

http://ir.nwa.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=111021&p=irol-fleet

Why don't you admit the fleet plan so I can stop repeating this same information?

 

[DTW320]

Why do you write this? You are half way into your 76 large RJ order to replace them.

http://ir.nwa.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=111021&p=irol-fleet

Why don't you admit the fleet plan so I can stop repeating this same information?

Why don't YOU admit that NWA scope PREVENTS them from "replacing" the DC9's!!! Could it be that you have no idea what you're talking about? Could it be that you are mathematically challenged?

Our scope does not even remotely allow enough 76 seaters to replace the DC9 seats.

 

[~~~^~~~]

NWA 3rd QTR Conference Call excerpts....

We continue to focus on executing our business plan which includes a series of initiatives that generate earnings growth in the years ahead. Key initiatives include an overall profitability enhancing refleeting. Northwest is halfway through its $6 billion refleeting program, which includes the delivery of ...72 76-seat regional jets manufactured by Embraer and Bombardier; and 18 Boeing 787s. As these new aircraft enter service, their lower operating costs and improved performance will drive increased profitability, particularly in today's high fuel cost environment. These aircraft purchases collectively have a forecast return on investment of greater than 15%.

So far, Northwest has taken delivery of 14 dual-class 76-seat regional jets, five EMB-175s, and nine CRJ-900s. We expect to have 22 76-seaters by year end and all 72 of these by the end of 2008. These aircraft replace the very fuel efficient AVRO-RJ85s that were rejected during our bankruptcy as well as retired DC-9s. In addition, the 76-seat regional jets low operating costs, and extended range provide additional profitable growth opportunities.
Just one example is the Minneapolis to Vancouver service that we started on October 15th. Northwest typically would not operate this route during the winter, as there is inefficient demand to fill a 125- or 150-seat A-319, A-320; and our 100-seat DC-9 does not have the range to make the mission. As a result of this new large regional aircraft, we will now have Vancouver on our network year-round. Customer response to the new aircraft continues to be overwhelmingly positive.

We are still formulating our capacity plan for 2008 and we intend to provide more guidance on this topic on our next earnings conference call. In general we anticipate the overall size of the airline to be consistent with our five-year disclosure statement business plan, with flat main line capacity and the continued introduction of 76-seat regional jets. Our 2008 capacity guidance does not reflect the potential consequences of oil staying at $90 per barrel, and the industry seeking to pass these higher costs on to the consumer. We have significant fleet flexibility, particularly with our DC-9s, to further reduce capacity should we see an impact on demand.

4th QTR Call

Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet also grew in the fourth quarter with the delivery of six Bombardier CRJ-900s and five EMB-175s, bringing the year's total to 13 CRJ-900s and nine EMB-175 airplanes. In the first quarter of 2008, Northwest plans to take delivery of six additional CRJ-900s and eight more EMB-175s. By the end of 2008, Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet will have grown to 36 EMB-175s and 36 Bombardier CRJ-900s.

Northwest's 2008 flying plan also includes a reduction of its DC9 fleet over the course of the year, with the largest reduction coming during the peak summer travel months.

For the full year, our system mainline capacity will be down 0.5%, to up 0.5%, with domestic mainline capacity down 5.5% - 6.6%, and international up 8% - 9%. Regional capacity will be up 50% - 55%, due to continued growth and annualization of 76-seat regional jet flying.

Douglas Steenland
Let me start it off by saying, first for 2008 we’re in line with where we expected to be in our business plan. Second, as we increase pilot hiring and the like, we’re bringing back some capacity that clearly is positive and contributes to the airline that we took out last year because of that issue. And third, our regional jet deliveries which are significant RASM improvement airplanes are coming online in an expedited way and that’s what produces the numbers that you see. As Dave indicated, we continue to have flexibility as the year goes on and retain the ability to make adjustments if need be based on fuel or other macroeconomic changes.
Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers
Okay, so what you’re seeing on the revenue side justifies that expedited regional roll out?
David Davis
Yeah, I mean I quoted a number in the script that sort of showed what the RASM improvement was among our regional carriers and the results that we’re seeing so far with the introduction now of a little over 22 76-seaters, it’s been right in line with our expectation and it’s been very strong. So we’re confident that the continued roll out is something that we want to keep doing and keep doing at the pace that we’re planning for 2008.

 

[Max Powers]

Why don't YOU admit that NWA scope PREVENTS them from "replacing" the DC9's!!! Could it be that you have no idea what you're talking about? Could it be that you are mathematically challenged?

Our scope does not even remotely allow enough 76 seaters to replace the DC9 seats.

NWA scope may but what about Delta rules?

 

[Superpilot92]

NWA 3rd QTR Conference Call excerpts....

That doesnt mean they can replace ALL of the DC9s. Sure they are replacing some of them no argument there but it is against scope to just replace all of them. The number NWA mgmt ordered was the max allowed under the scope clause. Its a moot point here soon as the new business plan at DAL will be what dictates the fleet. So our new Joint Contract and its scope provisions will be what protects our flying and jobs so that should be what the discussion is really about.

 

[~~~^~~~]

That doesnt mean they can replace ALL of the DC9s. Sure they are replacing some of them no argument there but it is against scope to just replace all of them. The number NWA mgmt ordered was the max allowed under the scope clause. Its a moot point here soon as the new business plan at DAL will be what dictates the fleet. So our new Joint Contract and its scope provisions will be what protects our flying and jobs so that should be what the discussion is really about.

No, STATUS QUO matters and Doug said ....

Ray Neidl - Calyon Securities
Yeah, just to clarify with the DC9 fleets' shrinking and you having the big jump with RJ usage. Is there some point you might back up against some restraints and just go up close restrictions with just your pilots?
Douglas Steenland
No.

Seems like he think that one word response sufficiently answers the question. The big type is just so your senior pilots can read it also.

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

Lets not forget, there were 36 76 seat AVROs that were buzzing around for years. Those were parked.

The NET increase of 70 seat RJs is only 36.

Nu

 

[~~~^~~~]

IMHO, get them on the list.

The fact your DC9 replacements are being replaced with another type of aircraft not on the mainline list does not help us.

I'm not plugged in. Does anyone know if this is even a notepad item in the negotiations?

 

[JoeMerchant]

IMHO, get them on the list.

The fact your DC9 replacements are being replaced with another type of aircraft not on the mainline list does not help us.

I'm not plugged in. Does anyone know if this is even a notepad item in the negotiations?

...I doubt it....but what do you propose for those of us who have been spun off but still supposedly belong to the "brotherhood"....hard to say with a straight face...

The scope issue is going to blow in ALPA's face on this deal......

 

[Fly4hire]

He will tell you that you have to wear your hat when you join Delta. Please feel free to join the dark side here at DAL where hats are optional. We are a minority but a proud minority. We enjoy buying drinks for our fellow pilots and actually believe in the piloting profession over the management profession. It is our hope that the NWA pilots level the playing field between us no voters and the yes men at DAL. Lets focus on the real fight which is a fight for our profession and not a fight for our egos! 1st round is on me.

I like the way you think. Second rounds on me :beer:

 

[Fly4hire]

Wrong:

2007 NWA CASM:
DC9-30: 11.1
DC9-40: 9.5
DC9-50: 8.8
A319: 6.1
757-200: 5.6

The majority of the DC9 replacements are happening this fall. The CRJ's and E170's were ordered approximately two years ago. A few DC9's will hang on until the backfill by regional carriers is completed.

It's not just CASM, but RASM. What's the margin on a fully paid for less efficient DC9, over a more efficient one with a lease payment?

I don't believe your numbers factor in ownership vs. lease.

 

[PCL_128]

No, STATUS QUO matters and Doug said ....
Seems like he think that one word response sufficiently answers the question. The big type is just so your senior pilots can read it also.

Fins, why on earth are you listening to what the sack of sh-- Steal-land is saying? He's never said an honest word in his life. Quite simply, his representation of the scope language is incorrect. They cannot replace the entire DC-9 fleet with RJs of any sort. Period.

 

[DTW320]

Seems like he think that one word response sufficiently answers the question. The big type is just so your senior pilots can read it also.

Maybe you missed my response several months ago when you first tried to hang your hat on those "comments from Doug". Doug can say whatever he wants to whatever "analists" he wants.......doesn't make it supersede enforcable, contractual language. Care to review RA's "quotes" soon after his arrival about there being no plans for a merger? That you place stock in the verbal diarrhea of these clowns, when a section 6 RLA pilot contract spells out what they can and cannot do, is surprising.

 

[Capt. Caucasian]

Alright, after fifty thousand pages about who is screwing who we can see that it is just the same folks posting the same stuff over and over. May I suggest that Fins, GL, Super, DTW320, Fly4hire, NuGuy, FDJ2, PeanuckleCRJ, Schwanker, 800dog, etc., etc. all figure out a day when they are all off and head to a bar in neutral ground and just get pissed. If yall decide to end up at Pat O's in New Orleans, I might be forced to join ya. Mmmmm, Huricanes...liquid candy.

 

[General Lee]

NWA scope may but what about Delta rules?

EVER HEARD OF A "JOINT" CONTRACT? If anything is changed in the future joint contract, it will be BOTH of our MECs faults. Hopefully we will take what is great from BOTH of our current contracts and make it into one, with a pay raise.....


Bye Bye--General Lee