"300 Pilots fat...
I guess the 90 X, 90 Ultra, 80 XL and 40 Falcon 2000... FSI INITIAL slots will be going to current NJA pilots who will be displaced from their current seats due to the coming Furlough then..."
The ultra fleet is fat by about 80 pilots right now (haven't done the math in the other fleets) IF those 4.6 pilots per aircraft numbers are correct, which I don't see why they wouldn't be (CS uses 4.3 per and 100% of their guys are on 7and7), and 91k is still over a year away.
By your own admission there is EXACTLY 300 initial slots, and we are supposedly 200-300 fat by my math and a couple hundred by managements claims.
So lets say we take deliveries of 6 new 2000's, we would need 27 pilots in to cover those. Lets say those 27 come from the X, well the X isin't fat on guys so those have to be replaced. Lets say 15 of those to cover the X slots come from the excel, well the excel isin't fat either I don't think, and those will need to be replaced. So just from 6 aircraft, that creates the need for 67 pilots trained in a new type (just my example of course, not counting any new Xs, excels, etc which I am sure we are getting).
With the rumors of BBJ FOs, shrinking of the 1000 fleet and possibly the VII, etc, I don't see how 300 initial slots have anything to do with the need for more pilots, the need to move pilots around, but not additional pilots.
Again, I hope we do hire next month, and I am not saying we won't hire a day after the contract is signed or next fall, but for the time being I don't see any information that tells me managment is lying about the hiring. I will say that the biggest wildcard in this is the new contract. Now I know all the half empty folks are saying 2010, but my guess is summer if they don't lock horns on $$$. If the contract comes this year how much 7and7? What is the alt schedule? How many quarterly seams if any? Any tightning up of sick day use? More vacation time? Those are the real variables. So I temper my projection with the statement that as long as the contract DOESN'T come this year, there won't be hiring till fall.
How much will 91k add? Who knows, but I wouldn't think more than 1 pilot per airplane but again, just a guess, but are we even going 91K or will it be 135? Anyone that thinks either of those is going to force an increase of 2.5 pilots per AC is an idiot in my opinion, it's only scheduled rest for crying outloud...we did it post 9/11. At 5 pilots per AC thats still 1575 needed for 315 AC which is the last number I have seen. We have 1750 active, that is still 175 extra.
Why the extending in some fleets like the hawker? Could be a ton of reasons, quarter seams, flu (who isin't sick these days?), training, burning off of unused hours by owners, who knows.
I just don't want to give guys who are waiting for a job here false hope. I have several friends that are waiting for the hiring to start again, but I don't want to be leading people to think something is closer then it is, and then they start passing up other jobs etc.
