New Job... F9-Frontier

[sluggo]

find the place that gives you the right balance,of family time,prosperity, and professional satisfaction, and pursue it with a laser like focus, just follow your gut. best of luck !

Any tips on where that place you speak of is! LoL...

 

[RiteSideUp]

Sluggo,

Whether to stay or go can be a very difficult decision and everyone has a different trip point. I've seen guys make moves that seemed brilliant and turned out to be devastating. And I have seen guys hang on too long and missed some really good oportunities. It has to be a personal decision, just make sure you do your homework so if it craps out - you can save your confidence by knowing you made the best decision you could at the time.

Really, you need to find a good cystal ball - i'll sell you mine - it's worth it's weight in cow dung....

 

[GuppyWN]

Let's not kid each other my friend. F9 is hurting and the bleeding is picking up steam. You just posted a record loss - for the 3rd quarter. You're behind the curve and the worst quarter of the year is still ahead.

I hope it works and I really thought it would be I'm starting to have my doubts.

Sucks for my buds still pushing 'em up over there. I hope some good news happens sooner rather than later.

Gup

 

[GuppyWN]

DENVER (AP) -- Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. said late Thursday its fiscal third-quarter loss more than doubled after fuel costs rose a punishing 16.3 percent and federal certification was delayed for its turboprop subsidiary.

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if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['.0i.CELaX9Y-']='&U=13b3jdhrm%2fN%3d.0i.CELaX9Y-%2fC%3d626899.11742544.12469774.1383221%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d5133107';While Frontier Airlines already has adjusted routes and laid off 100 employees, it announced additional steps to rein in costs such putting four jets up for sale and an extensive review of its schedule.
"We realized we may be seeing a new norm for fuel prices as well as a potential economic downturn that could adversely affect our bookings," Chief Executive Officer Sean Menke said in a statement.
For the fiscal third quarter ending Dec. 31, Frontier reported a net loss of $32.5 million, or 89 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $14.4 million, or 39 cents a share, in the previous third quarter. Revenue totaled $333.9 million, up from $271.3 million in the year-ago quarter.
The most recent quarter reflected special items that equaled a net loss of 9 cents a share for costs related to the startup of the Lynx Aviation turboprop subsidiary, layoffs, equipment-related expenses and debt extinguishment.
The previous third quarter included special charges that decreased the net loss by 4 cents a share.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, on average, expected earnings of 82 cents per share on revenue of $332 million. These estimates typically exclude one-time items.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Chief Financial Officer Paul Tate summed up the quarter as a "disconnect on results," noting that unit revenue rose 5.9 percent while unit costs excluding fuel declined 6.4 percent.
"If you look at it from the 30,000-foot view, one would think we just knocked the cover off the ball," he said.
Like its competitors, Frontier's biggest challenge is fuel -- costs in the most recent quarter were $18.4 million higher than in the year-ago quarter, he said.
Frontier's load factor was 76.7 percent, up from 71.2 percent in the year-ago quarter while capacity -- measured by the industry as available seat miles -- climbed 16.3 percent.
In the first nine months, Frontier reported a net loss of $18.7 million, or 51 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $9.9 million, or 27 cents a share, in the comparable nine-month period of the previous fiscal year.
Revenue totaled $1.05 billion in the first nine months compared with $888.5 million in the year-ago period.
Frontier launched the Lynx Aviation operation in December after a two-month delay in the certification process. As it awaited approval, Frontier served three Lynx routes with aircraft from its regional partners. Frontier released its results after the market closed. Its shares fell 6 cents to $2.97 in regular trading Thursday, then gained 10 cents in after-hours electronic trading.

 

[D-Bo]

I'll restate it a different way - fuel is the 'one' wrench that is causing us problems. I didn't mean to marginalize it because you're right- it is a big wrench and if fuel goes sky high then of course the wrench gets bigger.

.

Only problem is that you need enough cash on hand to ride out the storm or a wish for a bailout and you have to have some superb assets on hand in order to get that. The fuel storm isn't going away, ever again. Good luck though. Most airlines need it.

 

[regionaltard]

Our biggest threat would probably be a merger/buy-out and we'll see if that plays out or not...

It could also be your best chance to remain continuously employed.

 

[CALRepublic]

Something that would scare the s*** out of me would be Republic buying Frontier. That would be a disaster for F9 pilots.

 

[TAWS]

Your guy talking openly about "joint ventures", Bedford meeting with investment groups (who specialize in turning around troubled companies).

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ..........................

 

[directintercept]

Hey Sluggo,

Selling of airplanes and loss of 33 Million certainly is not good news, however, i think the conference call today was informative.

You may have already heard it but they addressed the state of the airline fairly well, especially in regards to the 4 a/c being sold and our cash position. They have 170.4 million in the bank which in a lot of ways is airline small potatoes (we saw how quickly Indy Air burned $300 million) with mortgage cash value of another 175 million from the 22 a/c that they own and have equity in. Depending on which a/c they decide to sell, they could make 6-15 million additional cash on hand per aircraft. The burn rate yearly i believe was about 35 million but the were working to bring that down. With the 4 airbus sold (318 or 319) and the 2 320's (which also will be owned) received this year, the net fleet reduction is minus -2. This was being done to increase the cash on hand position. The press release indicated they would grow mainline at 6% this year and hope for a need not to furlough based on attrition and higher a/c utilization. Hedges were in the 25% range and i think but am not positive the avg was in the $70's.

Whatever you feelings are on Sean and Paul, it was clear that they had a strong grasp of the numbers and trends and more clarity was given to how they chose to cut different routes recently and that there might be method behind it. Contrary to popular belief, f9's Denver market share is not going down, and most of the impact on SWA's DEN flying was being pulled from the Other Air Lines at DIA and not F9 nor United (although UAL was pulling back there domestic flying a bit on their own). It was also very clear listening to the question and answer that many of the stock analyst who upgrade and downgrade didn't seem to have the sharpest grasp of the books and numbers. F9 also addressed how expensive the RJ's are to operate with high fuel and they would be right sized as well. Most of the Mexico point to point Republic did has been cut as it wasn't working. Lynx should be full bore by the March Quarter and they added 4.8 million to the quarterly loss.

Its definitely not a great position to be in but surely there are much worse, and probably much of your decision will be based of how much faith you have in Frontier and its exec's, the potential for buyouts, furloughs, or pay cuts, and the availability of something better that works for you. Potential merger mania and its after affects may weigh heavily also. We all have our own worry tolerances and i am sure some of that depends on your relative position on the seniority list when they talk about selling planes. It has been stated before that if oil sustained at $110 that right size is under 50 airbus but most of the airlines would be suffering at that point as well except the great hedgers out there. Yup, SWA is dang GOOD! 127 quarters can't be wrong.

I hope for the best for you and your decision making process, although i will say for me, the conference call took the edge off of what i was feeling last night and that i think we will have a much better grasp of the direction after Sean has had a year to run the show if F9 doesn't get snagged up beforehand. As has been mentioned before, proactive is better than reactive, its up to you and your family to decided if it is a sinking ship or not. Have a healthy 2008.

Sincerely, DI

 

[sluggo]

The whole point of the "conf. call" is to take the edge off. They want you to drop your guard and reinforce employees contentment. I personally don't care what Sean or Paul say, I listen to Wall Street and my own research. If they told us the truth, people would be dropping like flies & training costs would soar. This is typical of a failing airline or company. Look at Enron, different situation but very much the same. They don't care about you & I and our situation at home when the doors close. Despite what they say, things are worse than they say. I am a realist, not a dreamer, not a follower, & not a CoolAid drinker. The Art of War my friend... The numbers and trends are what count, not the words from the CEO. F9 is a great company to be employed by, but your well being and family are number one.

I wish nothing but the best for F9, & I am super bummed were in this situation because it's one of the best airline jobs out there... We need to be real and we need to protect our personal future by making the right personal decisions.