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New Job... F9-Frontier

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sluggo

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Posts
150
When is the best time to start looking for a new job when your airline isn't pulling it off. As in Frontier Airlines. Is it best to go down with the ship and ride it out, then collect unemployment, then get a new job?

Or is it best to get out early if all the signs are there? Just wondering what the best plan is.
 
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Depends on whether you want to be junior or senior at your next airline.

We have alot of Independence Air guys over here at Airtran. Alot of them rode all the way to the end at Indy before for looking for new jobs. Some of the people that left Indy quicker will upgrade 2 or 3 years earlier at Airtran just by getting to Airtran a year quicker than their friends.
 
When is the best time to start looking for a new job when your airline isn't pulling it off. As in Frontier Airlines. Is it best to go down with the ship and ride it out, then collect unemployment, then get a new job?

Or is it best to get out early if all the signs are there? Just wondering what the best plan is.

Find good alternatives in terms of starting salaries elsewhere (Netjets, Flexjet, Cathay Cargo, etc.) and go ahead and apply. Why not? If you leave early, the salary differential won't be too bad. I agree that is is better to get a slight head start if your GUT tells you that you should bail.

Collect good information about your current situation first - don't rely on the rumors found on this board.
 
In my opinion, this is not a sinking ship at all. We may be in shark infested waters at the moment, but we are not sinking. It would take a lot higher losses per quarter to get us into bankruptcy this year. The load factor is up, the rasm is up, casm(ex fuel) is down. Though not to be taken lightly, fuel is the only wrench in our system.

Our biggest threat would probably be a merger/buy-out and we'll see if that plays out or not...

Just man your battle stations and keep your eye on the ball......
 
Though not to be taken lightly, fuel is the only wrench in our system.

I think you are marginalizing exactly how big of an issue fuel is.

Doesn't fuel account for the highest cost at every airline now?

Isn't the price of fuel sparking industry-changing consolidation as we speak?

If fuel is, in fact, your "only wrench" (we won't even talk about SWA rolling into DEN)...it's one hell of a big wrench, my man.
 
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pro active is always better than reactive
 
I agree, a proactive strategy is probably the best plan. 121 jobs can take up to a year to get if your not well connected. I want to play my cards right and make the best decision possible to protect myself and family. There is a correct strategy. My concern is, which is the best... It seems obvious to target the companies that one is most interested in and wait it out & see what happens at F9. I'm sure some of you are dealing with similar decisions at other airlines... What are some of your plans and how are you reacting?? Thanks
 
it's one hell of a big wrench, my man.

I'll restate it a different way - fuel is the 'one' wrench that is causing us problems. I didn't mean to marginalize it because you're right- it is a big wrench and if fuel goes sky high then of course the wrench gets bigger.

Southwest? We seem to be competing well against them for now. I'm more worried about the fuel and a buyout scenario than wether they will put us out of business.
 
find the place that gives you the right balance,of family time,prosperity, and professional satisfaction, and pursue it with a laser like focus, just follow your gut. best of luck !
 
find the place that gives you the right balance,of family time,prosperity, and professional satisfaction, and pursue it with a laser like focus, just follow your gut. best of luck !

Any tips on where that place you speak of is! LoL...
 
Sluggo,

Whether to stay or go can be a very difficult decision and everyone has a different trip point. I've seen guys make moves that seemed brilliant and turned out to be devastating. And I have seen guys hang on too long and missed some really good oportunities. It has to be a personal decision, just make sure you do your homework so if it craps out - you can save your confidence by knowing you made the best decision you could at the time.

Really, you need to find a good cystal ball - i'll sell you mine - it's worth it's weight in cow dung....
 
Let's not kid each other my friend. F9 is hurting and the bleeding is picking up steam. You just posted a record loss - for the 3rd quarter. You're behind the curve and the worst quarter of the year is still ahead.

I hope it works and I really thought it would be I'm starting to have my doubts.

Sucks for my buds still pushing 'em up over there. I hope some good news happens sooner rather than later.

Gup
 
DENVER (AP) -- Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. said late Thursday its fiscal third-quarter loss more than doubled after fuel costs rose a punishing 16.3 percent and federal certification was delayed for its turboprop subsidiary.

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B2625737.3;abr=!ie4;abr=!ie5;sz=300x250;ord=1201300407527811
if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['.0i.CELaX9Y-']='&U=13b3jdhrm%2fN%3d.0i.CELaX9Y-%2fC%3d626899.11742544.12469774.1383221%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d5133107';While Frontier Airlines already has adjusted routes and laid off 100 employees, it announced additional steps to rein in costs such putting four jets up for sale and an extensive review of its schedule.
"We realized we may be seeing a new norm for fuel prices as well as a potential economic downturn that could adversely affect our bookings," Chief Executive Officer Sean Menke said in a statement.
For the fiscal third quarter ending Dec. 31, Frontier reported a net loss of $32.5 million, or 89 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $14.4 million, or 39 cents a share, in the previous third quarter. Revenue totaled $333.9 million, up from $271.3 million in the year-ago quarter.
The most recent quarter reflected special items that equaled a net loss of 9 cents a share for costs related to the startup of the Lynx Aviation turboprop subsidiary, layoffs, equipment-related expenses and debt extinguishment.
The previous third quarter included special charges that decreased the net loss by 4 cents a share.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, on average, expected earnings of 82 cents per share on revenue of $332 million. These estimates typically exclude one-time items.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Chief Financial Officer Paul Tate summed up the quarter as a "disconnect on results," noting that unit revenue rose 5.9 percent while unit costs excluding fuel declined 6.4 percent.
"If you look at it from the 30,000-foot view, one would think we just knocked the cover off the ball," he said.
Like its competitors, Frontier's biggest challenge is fuel -- costs in the most recent quarter were $18.4 million higher than in the year-ago quarter, he said.
Frontier's load factor was 76.7 percent, up from 71.2 percent in the year-ago quarter while capacity -- measured by the industry as available seat miles -- climbed 16.3 percent.
In the first nine months, Frontier reported a net loss of $18.7 million, or 51 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $9.9 million, or 27 cents a share, in the comparable nine-month period of the previous fiscal year.
Revenue totaled $1.05 billion in the first nine months compared with $888.5 million in the year-ago period.
Frontier launched the Lynx Aviation operation in December after a two-month delay in the certification process. As it awaited approval, Frontier served three Lynx routes with aircraft from its regional partners. Frontier released its results after the market closed. Its shares fell 6 cents to $2.97 in regular trading Thursday, then gained 10 cents in after-hours electronic trading.
 
I'll restate it a different way - fuel is the 'one' wrench that is causing us problems. I didn't mean to marginalize it because you're right- it is a big wrench and if fuel goes sky high then of course the wrench gets bigger.

.

Only problem is that you need enough cash on hand to ride out the storm or a wish for a bailout and you have to have some superb assets on hand in order to get that. The fuel storm isn't going away, ever again. Good luck though. Most airlines need it.
 
Our biggest threat would probably be a merger/buy-out and we'll see if that plays out or not...


It could also be your best chance to remain continuously employed.
 
Something that would scare the s*** out of me would be Republic buying Frontier. That would be a disaster for F9 pilots.
 
Your guy talking openly about "joint ventures", Bedford meeting with investment groups (who specialize in turning around troubled companies).

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ..........................
 
Hey Sluggo,

Selling of airplanes and loss of 33 Million certainly is not good news, however, i think the conference call today was informative.

You may have already heard it but they addressed the state of the airline fairly well, especially in regards to the 4 a/c being sold and our cash position. They have 170.4 million in the bank which in a lot of ways is airline small potatoes (we saw how quickly Indy Air burned $300 million) with mortgage cash value of another 175 million from the 22 a/c that they own and have equity in. Depending on which a/c they decide to sell, they could make 6-15 million additional cash on hand per aircraft. The burn rate yearly i believe was about 35 million but the were working to bring that down. With the 4 airbus sold (318 or 319) and the 2 320's (which also will be owned) received this year, the net fleet reduction is minus -2. This was being done to increase the cash on hand position. The press release indicated they would grow mainline at 6% this year and hope for a need not to furlough based on attrition and higher a/c utilization. Hedges were in the 25% range and i think but am not positive the avg was in the $70's.

Whatever you feelings are on Sean and Paul, it was clear that they had a strong grasp of the numbers and trends and more clarity was given to how they chose to cut different routes recently and that there might be method behind it. Contrary to popular belief, f9's Denver market share is not going down, and most of the impact on SWA's DEN flying was being pulled from the Other Air Lines at DIA and not F9 nor United (although UAL was pulling back there domestic flying a bit on their own). It was also very clear listening to the question and answer that many of the stock analyst who upgrade and downgrade didn't seem to have the sharpest grasp of the books and numbers. F9 also addressed how expensive the RJ's are to operate with high fuel and they would be right sized as well. Most of the Mexico point to point Republic did has been cut as it wasn't working. Lynx should be full bore by the March Quarter and they added 4.8 million to the quarterly loss.

Its definitely not a great position to be in but surely there are much worse, and probably much of your decision will be based of how much faith you have in Frontier and its exec's, the potential for buyouts, furloughs, or pay cuts, and the availability of something better that works for you. Potential merger mania and its after affects may weigh heavily also. We all have our own worry tolerances and i am sure some of that depends on your relative position on the seniority list when they talk about selling planes. It has been stated before that if oil sustained at $110 that right size is under 50 airbus but most of the airlines would be suffering at that point as well except the great hedgers out there. Yup, SWA is dang GOOD! 127 quarters can't be wrong.

I hope for the best for you and your decision making process, although i will say for me, the conference call took the edge off of what i was feeling last night and that i think we will have a much better grasp of the direction after Sean has had a year to run the show if F9 doesn't get snagged up beforehand. As has been mentioned before, proactive is better than reactive, its up to you and your family to decided if it is a sinking ship or not. Have a healthy 2008.

Sincerely, DI
 
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The whole point of the "conf. call" is to take the edge off. They want you to drop your guard and reinforce employees contentment. I personally don't care what Sean or Paul say, I listen to Wall Street and my own research. If they told us the truth, people would be dropping like flies & training costs would soar. This is typical of a failing airline or company. Look at Enron, different situation but very much the same. They don't care about you & I and our situation at home when the doors close. Despite what they say, things are worse than they say. I am a realist, not a dreamer, not a follower, & not a CoolAid drinker. The Art of War my friend... The numbers and trends are what count, not the words from the CEO. F9 is a great company to be employed by, but your well being and family are number one.

I wish nothing but the best for F9, & I am super bummed were in this situation because it's one of the best airline jobs out there... We need to be real and we need to protect our personal future by making the right personal decisions.
 
good on you sluggo !
 
In my opinion, this is not a sinking ship at all. We may be in shark infested waters at the moment, but we are not sinking. It would take a lot higher losses per quarter to get us into bankruptcy this year. The load factor is up, the rasm is up, casm(ex fuel) is down. Though not to be taken lightly, fuel is the only wrench in our system.

Our biggest threat would probably be a merger/buy-out and we'll see if that plays out or not...

Just man your battle stations and keep your eye on the ball......

What makes F9 attractive for a merger? (except for stock that is trading below $3.00 a share) Why would another airline invest in F9 when all it really has for assets is aircraft and future aircraft orders? By merging with F9 you now end up with a money loosing enterprise that is involved in a price war with United and Southwest.

If an airline wanted F9's assets wouldn't it be smarter to wait until they file ch. 7 and then buy the aircraft and future aircraft orders? This would alleviate the messy seniority integration of two labor
groups. If F9 is already selling aircraft, a company might not have to wait for ch. 7 to start picking up their assets.

On a personal note.... I have a few friends at Frontier and hate to see them in this situation.

Stillflyn
 
If an airline wanted F9's assets wouldn't it be smarter to wait until they file ch. 7 and then buy the aircraft and future aircraft orders?
Stillflyn
When exactly is this going to happen? Got a date? When can United and SWA execute on their business plan to move into the A concourse at DEN? What you fail to understand is that Frontier and the whole airline industry are fluid in their strategies and tactics and health for that matter. If Frontier held their course without change it would be easier for you to write their obituary, but they are on the move. Who knows if Frontier or any other airline will be here long term, but to say they are not valuable or do not stand a chance of suvival is both naive and presumptious. At least F9 is pursuing a strategy going forward to make it on their own merits, not depending on a merger or acquisition as their only plan for success in the future like the current UAL, Delta, and NWA plans.

Furthermore, it looks as if you have left F9 for greener pastures and in a sick sort of way would take some joy in seeing F9 fail so that it would validate your decision to leave. Well don't hold your breath. Frontier has a superb product, excellent employees, new airplanes and equipment, and hopefully now...a plan for the future. Most importantly they have the desire to succeed against the odds, not unlike the scrappy SWA of 20 years ago. We will see.
 
Couple thoughts. To say that fuel is our only problem is very myopic. Fuel is a major issue, but not the only problem and not the biggest money loser at this airline. Failure in leadership is the biggest problem here. Spending over $30 million and counting to start a w/o sub and losing $5 million a quarter on that subsidiary is unacceptable. Failing to market anywhere outside your only hub is unacceptable. Starting cities, stopping cities, starting the same cities again, unacceptable. These are all controllable and manageable issues, unfortunately they have been managed into the debacle that we have found ourselves in today.

We are an airline, yet we are selling AIRPLANES because we can't produce a profit with those pieces of equipment. To think that is not defcon five is totally burying your head in the sand. When our cash position is so low that the ceo and cfo are adding the value of other assets to add some shine the turd then you really have serious problems.

As stated above, this airline is really a hidden gem with regard to people and qol, but we have some major, major problems. Shrinking to profitability has been tried probably a few dozen times. It has NEVER worked.

With regard to the merger/acquisition or liquidation comment. The buyout before any liquidation makes more sense due to the fact that you are assuming only one entity would be interested in the assets after liquidation. The lessor would get market value (if not higher) on any airbus narrow body due to the fact that orders are filled through 2013. Todays market cap plus a premium on the shares would not clear a profit if you bought and then sold everything off, but you wouldn't have to worry about someone else running up the price. Additionally, the stock is trading at an all time low, making the shareholders pretty desperate. The premium would not have to be very high to get the required number of people to sell.

Who knows what will happen. All I know is that the path that brought us here began well before oil ran up to $100 a barrel.
 
When exactly is this going to happen? Got a date? When can United and SWA execute on their business plan to move into the A concourse at DEN? What you fail to understand is that Frontier and the whole airline industry are fluid in their strategies and tactics and health for that matter. If Frontier held their course without change it would be easier for you to write their obituary, but they are on the move. Who knows if Frontier or any other airline will be here long term, but to say they are not valuable or do not stand a chance of suvival is both naive and presumptious. At least F9 is pursuing a strategy going forward to make it on their own merits, not depending on a merger or acquisition as their only plan for success in the future like the current UAL, Delta, and NWA plans.

Furthermore, it looks as if you have left F9 for greener pastures and in a sick sort of way would take some joy in seeing F9 fail so that it would validate your decision to leave. Well don't hold your breath. Frontier has a superb product, excellent employees, new airplanes and equipment, and hopefully now...a plan for the future. Most importantly they have the desire to succeed against the odds, not unlike the scrappy SWA of 20 years ago. We will see.

Wow.... easy fella.... It was just a question. No I have never flown for Frontier, so I didn't leave for greener pastures. If you read my whole post you might have noticed that I said I have friends at Frontier and have to see them in this situation. So... no I don't take joy in seeing F9 fail!!!!! But according to your post they don't have anything to worry about and that makes me feel better.

Stillflyn
 
Wrong. I didn't say "they don't have anything to worry about". I say to every airline pilot in the industry (except maybe the freight guys), you DO have to worry. The day you accept a seniority number and receive pay and QOL based on this seniority number, you have effectively given control of your career to somebody else. The only thing you can do is give up your seniority number and go get another one somewhere else and subject youself to the same reality.

At the end of the day, in this deregulated industry, you have to be pretty stupid to put all your eggs in the airline basket and just hope your CEO is going to provide for your family's future. Unless you have a crystal ball, guessing which airline is going to take you to retirement is like playing roulette. The ones at PanAm, Eastern, TWA, and countless others didn't seem to work that good. Remember those were the unsinkable airlines at the time and little Southwest was the airline sure to fail at that time.
 
.....
 
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Wrong. I didn't say "they don't have anything to worry about". I say to every airline pilot in the industry (except maybe the freight guys), you DO have to worry.

Best advice...Don't worry. There are lots of things to do in this world if your airline goes away. They're called "jobs". Worrying does nothing but shave years off your life.

With that being said, if I was gravely "concerned" about my current airline, I would certainly look into changing airlines earlier rather than later and avoid the rush. For most, being completely out of the airline biz and having one of those "jobs" is even more frightening that starting over at a new airline.
 
Paul Tate is an idiot. Until someone wakes up and $hitcans his useless a$$, F9 has no chance of long term viability. F9 certainly has other issues to deal with, but this guy has been killing F9 for years.
 
Paul Tate is an idiot. Until someone wakes up and $hitcans his useless a$$, F9 has no chance of long term viability. F9 certainly has other issues to deal with, but this guy has been killing F9 for years.

Smartest thing I've heard on this thread yet. I've been on a couple of these sinking ships and F9 is heading for the same iceberg. Great product, employees, yadda yadda... don't make for a profitable company. Drink'n the kool aid and hoping doesn't feed the family.

I was looking for a job when I went to F9 and I'll be look'n when she goes down. Same sh**t different paint scheme.
 

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