jetlag7
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2008
- Posts
- 266
You know, reading your post I starting thinking about the last twenty years in business aviation.
In 1992/1993 the industry was really in the tank, charter was in its infancy for most people, nobody had heard of fractional ownership, and Gulfstream had to be saved from bankruptcy by Ted Forstmann. We got on a roll in the 1997-2000 years with the dot com craze...charter was going nuts, fractional were reeling them in, and the manufacturers had wait lists. That busted out in 2000 and things really starting to go down hill and 9/11 made it worst. A rebound occurred in the 2004-2007 time frame due to the housing market which spurred on Wall Street and we had a repeat of the late 1990's.
Economic bubbles have driven demand for private aviation and if you count the good years versus the bad or mediocre, we have had approximately 6 good years and 14 so so years.
The point of the rambling is that this is really a lousy business to be in. Very few people can afford our services and demand usually occurs when we are riding a phantom horse called a bubble. We are facing a mountain of foreclosures that are coming in the next two years (more than the last three years combined), unemployment is still 8.2% and that figure doesn't take into account the fact that many people that are working, are making less than they did 3-4 years ago. A pound of butter is closing in on $5 (up almost 50% in 4 years), lunch at Wendy's is $7, and a gin and tonic is $10 in most places (25% of the customers aren't making their mortgage payments)...we just don't have a lot of things going our way. .
While we will get thru this because we are resilient, 2014 would have to be viewed as a reach for any real recovery in private aviation...the overall economy will be better and aviation will have to wait awhile longer.
I fully expect to hear much more of this all summer long and early next fall (or at least starting around May 6th...)
Thanks for the heads-up Gret!