Do you mind if we ask how old you are? Have a family? That might play big into this decision, in my humble opinion. Understand I am still new to the industry, so take my advice with that in mind; however, I went through the same experience as you.
I was flying at a great regional tied to a mainline partner where the future was uncertain. Upgrade was looking about 18-24 months away there on the SF-340. But, with the unknown future and the fact most attrition was from FOs
behind me in seniority (stagnation), I decided to make a move to another regional. I figured at this early point in my career, I could afford to make the somewhat lateral move into jet equipment. Plus, estimations were that upgrade would be four years here, as opposed to two years at the previous company. That is two more years in the right seat learning, observing, and gaining experience to hopefully become a better captain when I actually do upgrade. There were other advantages, like experience in flying across the borders to Mexico and Canada, glass cockpit jet time, FMS experience, and operating in most of the largest airports in North America. This could only make an upward transition to a major airline in the future that much easier.
Realize though that I am 23 years old, single, have no real ties to any city for residence. I can move where I want, and have 37 more years to go in my airline career. In my opinion, I could afford to lose those two years of PIC time for the experience I'm getting here. For someone with a wife, kids, a mortgage, and upwards of 35 years old, those two years could be very important.
Also look at the payscales of each company, as well as the benefits. What happens if you do upgrade at your current company, and this stagnate again? Would you be happy there for 5 more years as PIC? Compare your PIC pay scale to that of the larger regionals currently hiring. I am going to take a guess and say you are at Colgan. Forgive me if I'm wrong. At year 5 as a SF-340 captain, you'll be making approximately $46,000 a year. As a 5th year FO at ExpressJet, you could be making approximately $37-$40,000 a year. If you upgraded, it would be $64-$67,000 a year. Chautauqua, you'd be making $34,000 a year. If you upgraded, $56-$73,000 a year. (Source:
www.airlinepilotpay.com)
Consider the schedule. Where will you get more days off? Does each company have block or better? Retirement? If you are young like me, the retirement can be a big decision maker. Any extra in your 401(k) under 30 years old will be just that much more money compounded over time due at retirement.
Anyways, to make a long story short: Take a look at your own personal situation, and weigh the pros and cons of a move to another regional at this point in your career. Consider both the best case and worst case scenarios in your decision, since you never know which way this industry can turn. It really is a gamble either way. Best of luck!
