More on gas prices...

[big_al]

It is amazing how shocked people are that this is happening huh?

Carter even warned us all wearing his nice sweater, that one day we'd reach this point.

We should have listened to him then and began moving away from oil in the 1970's. It would have saved a lot of pain.

Oh well. Didn't happen. So now we'll have to have a hard transition instead of an easy one away from oil.

Jet

and why didnt it happen? BIG OIL controlling the government. the endless corporate revolving door. the refusals to adapt to the market. and yet you turn around and blame politicians and the people for the problems 99% caused by oil companies themselves

 

[jetflyer]

Big_Al,

You are blinded. There IS A SUPPLY PROBLEM.

You even said you think we're reaching peak oil. What did you think would happen as we reached it?

The price is gonna go up my friend.

The world is pumping as much as they can. It's not enough. There is NO SPARE CAPACITY.

Plus throw in some world wide catastrophies and the price is gonna go up right now.

This is a real problem and not some imagined made up problem by conspirators.

Your ignorance is as bad as most of our politicians that do not understand the problem. This same ignorance is why we're in the problem we're in and is the same reason I'm scared for our future.

Jet

 

[414Flyer]

thanks for showing oil is a nonelastic cartel. when SUPPLY goes up, PRICES GO DOWN. at least, that is what a free market dictates.

But thats OK, keep dodging the facts. Keep pretending everyone is at fault except the people profiting the most. Keep being corporate gatekeepers. I hope the pay is well

Supply is going down, not up. Its not supply as a single factor, demand is increased much more, so in reality the supply part of the equation is less. Its not rocket science.

Commodity trading does push up oil barrel prices too, along with wholesale gasoline. But its not some giant conspiracy.

 

[big_al]

You are blinded. There IS A SUPPLY PROBLEM.

blinded by who and what?

what supply problem? do tell. I bet you have tons of information to explain where this supply problem is coming from.

 

[big_al]

Supply is going down, not up. Its not supply as a single factor, demand is increased much more, so in reality the supply part of the equation is less. Its not rocket science.

Commodity trading does push up oil barrel prices too, along with wholesale gasoline. But its not some giant conspiracy.

another rocket scientist. supply is going down? are you sure about that? OPEC pumping more oil than ever before? more fields found in Canadia? the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world (Iraq) out of the hands of a dictator?

what SUPPLY problem?

 

[414Flyer]

Hoarding supplies? Is that why you think domestic production is down? They are not hoarding, they are trying to drill and explore more. No one is going to hoard when its at all time high, thats illogical.

Sounds like you fall in that group that if an area doesnt immediately fulfull most of our oil needs, we shouldnt drill? Should we just end all US production since no single well gives us all our oil either?

If it was solely about the environmental, they would be against lots of things. You wont see most of the sierra club members protesting against new shopping malls and old navy/gap stores being built, they need new cute clothes to go to protests in.

Parking lots and associated development for mindless shopping destroys more acreage than petroleum produciton ever could.

 

[jetflyer]

Big_Al,

I don't like the oil companies but they're having to do the dirty work for the U.S. right now so we have to support them.

They're having to compete against China for oil contracts. Guess what they lose most of them.

Remember when CNOOC almost bought Unocal??!

China is starting to take away some of the oil we get from Venezuela now. China is also making deals with Saudi Arabia. China owns some of the oil sands and is trying to buy more!

China's oil executives know oil is about to become more scarce every year and they have said publicly that they think peak oil is going to be 2012.

Plus the oil companies are not holding back supply?? Where do you get this from??

Jet

 

[414Flyer]

another rocket scientist. supply is going down? are you sure about that? OPEC pumping more oil than ever before? more fields found in Canadia? the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world (Iraq) out of the hands of a dictator?

what SUPPLY problem?

Iincreased worldwide consumption, that outstrips new production.

US production has decreased, Saudi fields will soon too. Are you this uninformed that you attribute everything to conspiracies?

 

[big_al]

Hoarding supplies? Is that why you think domestic production is down? They are not hoarding, they are trying to drill and explore more. No one is going to hoard when its at all time high, thats illogical.

Sounds like you fall in that group that if an area doesnt immediately fulfull most of our oil needs, we shouldnt drill? Should we just end all US production since no single well gives us all our oil either?

If it was solely about the environmental, they would be against lots of things. You wont see most of the sierra club members protesting against new shopping malls and old navy/gap stores being built, they need new cute clothes to go to protests in.

Parking lots and associated development for mindless shopping destroys more acreage than petroleum produciton ever could.

I dont know where to begin, if you fail to understand the heavy regulations involved in construction projects and the research needed to show the effects to the environment then I am done talking to somebody who fails to grasp the simple concepts that even a high schooler could possibly realize

 

[big_al]

Iincreased worldwide consumption, that outstrips new production.

US production has decreased, Saudi fields will soon too. Are you this uninformed that you attribute everything to conspiracies?

increased consumption along with increased supply. why must you label something a conspiracy theory as your only attack?

(still waiting on that data of lower production)

 

[jetflyer]

These are the Saudi Arabia and OPEC production numbers for past months.
Oct 04: SA = 9.508 mbpd, Opec = 30,228mbpd
Nov 04: SA = 9.450 mbpd, Opec = 29,067 mbpd
Nov 05: SA = 9.458 mbpd, Opec = 29,965 mbpd
Feb 06: SA = 9.394 mbpd, Opec = 29,713 mbpd

Supply is having trouble. Opec says they are pumping as fast as they can and they keep going down. Saudi says they're pumping full tilt too.

The world very well may be past peak oil already.

Jet

 

[big_al]

I don't like the oil companies but they're having to do the dirty work for the U.S. right now so we have to support them.

you actually have it backwards, your hard earned tax paying dollars are doing the dirty work for them. and our troops are as well.

from forcing their agendas for decades in Indonesia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. to supporting them through the world bank, us aid, exim bank, tax breaks, and countless other examples. "we" are doing the dirty work while they profit, and while they keep raising the prices and investors either panic because they sheepishly believe the sky is falling, or they are just profiteering off the profiteering of others.

Remember the guilded age? Or the Robber barons? I doubt you even know what that was

 

[414Flyer]

increased consumption along with increased supply. why must you label something a conspiracy theory as your only attack?

(still waiting on that data of lower production)

You are the one that attributes increases in conspiracies.

If supply goes up a little, and demand goes up more, then in reality real supply has not gone up, its gone down.

Ever been overseas? Just takes a small # of people from overcrowded developing countries like India and China to make a large dent in oil consumption

 

[jetflyer]

Matthew Simmons has been on Fox News, CNBC, CNN etc. trying to warn us to move on to alternatives and ditch oil.

We need to ditch the goo now!

Matthew Simmons analyzed over 200 Society of Petroleum Engineer Papers on Saudi Production and has the results of his findings in his new book. Saudi is having trouble and very well may be past peak already.

Jet

 

[big_al]

there is no more point in arguing. people complain that the chicken littles have been saying the sky is falling for decades, and suddenly the chicken littles are correct? make up your minds. either the sky is falling or "it is possible" that it could fall "sometime" within the next 10+ years?

 

[jetflyer]

you actually have it backwards, your hard earned tax paying dollars are doing the dirty work for them. and our troops are as well.

from forcing their agendas for decades in Indonesia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. to supporting them through the world bank, us aid, exim bank, tax breaks, and countless other examples. "we" are doing the dirty work while they profit, and while they keep raising the prices and investors either panic because they sheepishly believe the sky is falling, or they are just profiteering off the profiteering of others.

Remember the guilded age? Or the Robber barons? I doubt you even know what that was

Ok I agree with most that you're saying. Oil is heavily subsidized by the U.S. govt. and the military. No doubts there. Oil is damn important though. Soon we'll see how important it is to a world economy. This is why we have to move away from oil and on to alternatives.

We NEED to give more tax breaks to Alternative energy companies for alternatives and automakers to make Hybrid-PLUG-IN vehicles and more diesel engined vehicles. We also should give some of those tax breaks from Exxon to those companies.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Jet says, "The Sky is Falling NOW"

 

[jetflyer]

Bush will be looking like Jimmy Carter with his red sweater on having a chat with America very soon about oil supply problems.

He'll be pushing us to ethanol, hybrid plug-ins, coal to oil, tar sands, domestic oil production, bio-diesel, etc.

He's already taken the first step and admitted "We're Addicted"

Prediction: The song "I Can't Drive 55" by Sammy Hagar? will make a big comeback and be popular again in the next couple years.

Jet

 

[414Flyer]

Because its just basic logic, that oil is a finite resource, and that fields that currently produce will have to decline at some point. Majority of substantion possibly production in continental US onshore has been found and is producting. Lots of fields in the US have stopped, slowed, or are just a trickle anyways.

 

[jetflyer]

Big_Al,

You also think I'm a big Bush fan. I'm not. I'm afraid his major solutions for oil are military action and Alaska.

I BLAME BOTH PARTIES.

Bush talks up alternatives but doesn't fund them. He needs to fund them and now. People are going to vote Democrat in the next election because he's not doing enough. He's known about peak oil since he entered office in 2000. He wanted the Energy bill right away but all he every really proposes is Ethanol and Alaska.

Ethanol may be a waste of our time in corn. It is being debated. Cellulosic ethanol is useful from corn, but the plants to make ethanol this way haven't been built yet.

We need to fund useful alternatives now and make a difference. The U.S. military is even pushing Coal to Oil because they are concerned about Peak Oil. I could dig up an article if you want me to. Bush is not pushing this. I don't know why??

Jet

 

[big_al]

oil fields in the US are declining because fields in the US are not as profitable as fields in far away lands where they get so much bonuses, tax breaks, and free support in other forms plus the cheap labor in said countries. just like Iraq was used to tie up production on the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world to make sure production increases would be less possible, foreign drilling is easier to do and easier to delay shipments to the market. Saudi Arabia having less production could mean a lot of things. 99% of the time, the US asks SA to either increase or decrease. Or it could be a result of maint. you have to look at yearly output not a few months

 

[big_al]

I dont know whether you support bush, but I do see this supporting of corporate profiteering. I agree about finding altneratives, but for the most part, too much money is tied up with oil companies, they have too much political power in both parties, anything that starts now will take at least a decade to be enacted.

I have no doubt peak oil will happen, but this sudden scare that caused prices to increase past katrina levels is suspect to the highest degree

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Blame is worthless.

If I gave you undeniable proof of who's fault this crisis tomorrow, what would
you do? NOTHING!!

SO, instead of blame, how 'bout making solutions?

No one seems to mention the effect it will have on the Aviation industry.

strange

CE

 

[414Flyer]

oil fields in the US are declining because fields in the US are not as profitable as fields in far away lands where they get so much bonuses, tax breaks, and free support in other forms plus the cheap labor in said countries. just like Iraq was used to tie up production on the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world to make sure production increases would be less possible, foreign drilling is easier to do and easier to delay shipments to the market. Saudi Arabia having less production could mean a lot of things. 99% of the time, the US asks SA to either increase or decrease. Or it could be a result of maint. you have to look at yearly output not a few months

NO, Its because there is less oil to extract. Again, you are coming up with some economic conspiracy, when its just science (physics and geology). Fields produce more at first, then production decreases with time. Its not because oil is being hoarded or wells turned off. Most of the US has been seismically surveyed. An area of production does not last forever.

A lot of oil is not owned by large oil companies, its by small companies or individual land owners with mineral rights. ANYONE with oil production they can sell would love to sell as much as possible right now. it will probably drop some again, but I dont see it getting much below 50 ever again.

Actually I think selling short oil stocks for the short term would make some money. Unless military action with Iran breaks out, then look for spikes over 100/bbl.

 

[jetflyer]

Here are a lot of Peak oil references for you to read. The U.S. is not in decline for the reasons you say.

These are old and haven't been updated in a while but they're a good start for learning about this problem:

1)From Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
He has interviews with Peak Oil experts weekly. You can listen to them from his site. He is interviewing Matthew Simmons Saturday.

2) Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland just gave a new speech to Congress, broadcast on C-SPAN on July 19, 2005 about COMING OIL SUPPLY PROBLEMS(PEAK OIL).
Here is the transcript.:
a)http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-July19-2005.html

Feb. 8th, 2006 Bartlett gave this speech to congress. This is a Wonderful explanation and INTRODUCTION from a Congressman and talks in depth about the Department of Energy Study:
b)http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/PeakOilSpclOrder%2315TextCharts020806Low.pdf

Roscoe Bartlett met with Bush about Peak Oil on June 29th. So Bush, no doubt knows about the coming oil supply problems. Here is the press release:
c)http://www.bartlett.house.gov/latestnews.asp?ARTICLE2900=7308


3) Here is a recent Associated press article:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-05-28-oil-shortage_x.htm?csp=34

4) A great site for PEAK OIL introduction. READ FIRST:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

5) Article about Peak Oil coming around 2007-2008:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/196

6) http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm
Read as many of the articles here especially the Peak Oil ones
a) Peak Oil and what it means to you: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2005/0703.html
b) Crude Awakening: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/0617.html

7) An investment firm that specializes in ENERGY, 321Energy, has daily news articles on PEAK OIL and OIL in general here: http://www.321energy.com/archives.php?c=oil
Canadian Economist talks about imminent Peak oil Problem: http://www.321energy.com/editorials/sprott/sprott070505.html

8) A GREAT BLOG with news updates daily all about PEAK OIL: http://www.theoildrum.com/
ANOTHER GREAT INTRODUCTION and where you can read about flat year over year production of the world oil:
http://www.theoildrum.com/storyonly/2006/3/1/3402/63420


9) Great Chat Group to look at Current Events, Peak Oil Discussion, Energy Technology, and Economics of Peak Oil: http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

10) Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

11) The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has their website at: www.peakoil.net They have a new newsletter every month I believe, which talks about the newest developments on peak oil. They have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2010 for Peak Oil.

12) Here is the Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC) site. They also have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2007-2008 for Peak Oil.They have new articles about peak oil all the time:
http://www.odac-info.org/

13) READ THIS from the U.S. Govt. Department of Energy. It is a must read. It's long, but it is worth reading. It is a great introduction as well to the problem and why it won't be easy to overcome.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

14) The Ultimate Doomer Site-He basically thinks we're screwed no matter what: www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net -- Everything UNDERLINED is a link and you can explore almost all his sources. I recommend looking at as many links as you have time for.

15) http://www.energybulletin.net/
Daily articles on peak oil and ALTERNATIVES to Oil. Good site to learn about everything being done to help.

I think the U.S. will liquefy coal, use the Oil-shale of the Rocky Mountains, and adjust using every alternative imaginable. I think we'll have a very bad recession before things get better. How long will it take? I don't know, but the DOE study says decades.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Oh, and buying a fuel efficient vehicle is not necessarily cost effective.
Unless you are already due for a new vehicle AND the purchase will cut
your consumption a MINIMUM of 30%-50% you're likely to lose money on
the deal. Not to mention that Fuel efficient vehicles are now at a price
PREMIUM!

So when is the best time to buy a hybrid or another 40mpg vehicle?
2 years ago.

Enjoy the ride.

(wish I kept my Metro)

CE

 

[kingsize]

1. We are WAY behind the power curve on converting to an alternative form of energy. It's almost comedic how it's suddenly in the press and at the forefront of the layman's concerns, when the thinkers out there have known for DECADES that this "energy crisis" would one day show its ugly head. I blame dumbass politicians that look out for themselves rather than true national interests and I blame (to a lesser extent) big oil...but hey, what capitalist industry isn't trying to max out its profits??? That's their JOB! It's up to government to keep them in line, and facilitate the advancement of technology. If they had done that we all would already be driving cars standard equipped with flux capacitors.

2. How much do high gas prices really hurt us? It sucks right? $3 a gallon is horse ********************, but guess what they're paying in Europe? WAY more. I lived in Europe where the military provided us gasoline coupons so we wouldn't have to pay European prices. With coupons, gas was still about $2.50 a gallon, whereas the locals were paying $5/gallon (way more in some places like London where everything is absurdly overpriced). And guess what? They've been paying $4-5 a gallon for years. That's why they all drive girly little cars and scooters, and why they take public tranportation when they leave town. It's why they place way more emphasis on recycling (it was illegal where I lived to put stuff in the garbage that should go in the recycle bins).

3. Americans are especially disgustingly abusive with energy consumption. I'm a perfect example. My vehicle gets 12 miles per gallon, and that's when I'm PARKED!!

4. How will all this stuff affect the airline industry? higher priced gas means higher priced tickets. It means people budgeting more out of their income for driving, which means less disposal income available for buying those higher-priced airline tickets, which means fewer seats on the airlines being filled, which means fewer flights run, fewer aircraft being used, fewer pilots needed, shorter skirts on the flight attendants, etc... you get the idea. At least that's how my unknowledgeable brain sees it. You guys flying the airlines probably have better insight and hear more talk about how it will affect things. As long as SWA keeps serving up peanuts I'll be good. They are still serving peanuts aren't they?

5. How will this affect what we drive? I don't know, but I'm just damn glad government FINALLY is showing some real interest in this problem. Now they just need to put their policies where their mouths are and put remedies on the fast track. I want to buy a new vehicle, but I'm not going to for a matter of years, during which time I hope we see the majority of production vehicles fueled by jello or leftover meatloaf. In the meantime I'll look into trading in my gas guzzler for a Vespa sccoter or a fruity Kia or something else equally economical and feminine looking.

6. Start walking places. It's okay. Seriously. I'm sick of seeing tubbies walking all over the place. Fat Chicks. Oversized cars. Even small cars with fat chicks in them. It's kind of sickening really (after living overseas) how excessive we are. Luckily my city has some girls who take care of themselves, otherwise I'd be "going heavy" sooner than I thought I would.

 

[414Flyer]

Well domestic decline is in part to major producing fields just dont produce as much as they used to. Production inevitable declines as natural pressure disappears and then secondary means of recovery have to be utilized.

yes, there will have to be major changes made, especially in conservation, which is something I think too many Americans are alien to the idea of. Instead of educating people as to what can be done and as to why oil and gas is going to be expensive around the world for the future, both want to play politics and "investigate" why people cant get their god given right to gas for 1 dollar a gallon, and give lip service about it.

 

[414Flyer]

Oh, and buying a fuel efficient vehicle is not necessarily cost effective.
Unless you are already due for a new vehicle AND the purchase will cut
your consumption a MINIMUM of 30%-50% you're likely to lose money on
the deal. Not to mention that Fuel efficient vehicles are now at a price
PREMIUM!

So when is the best time to buy a hybrid or another 40mpg vehicle?
2 years ago.

CE

No one has to buy a new vehicle to get a fuel efficent one. People that buy hybrids are doing it more for emotional reasons that really cutting back on resource consumption.

 

[jetflyer]

414, Crimson, Kingsize, and to some extent Big_al

I am somewhat encouraged by our conversation. 6 months ago I'd be laughed out of the room for talking about what is coming. I was called a chicken little, etc.

I think we needed more chicken littles 10 years ago to really help, but atleast serious conversation is finally starting to go on about this.

Hopefully someone will educate Chucky Schumer from NY. Not just him but the rest of the morons that haven't figured it out yet in the U.S. government.

Jet