Mike Boyd talking to AA pilots.....

[General Lee]

Mike Boyd Presentation

Several PDP volunteers were in attendance at the presentation conducted by industry analyst Mike Boyd. Although Mr. Boyd covered a wide range of topics, there were several items that caught our attention.
Despite the protests of BOS Chairman Jim Sovich, who argued that APA needed to accept the 100 seat jet at sub-Greenbook rates to entice the company to purchase the aircraft,, Mr. Boyd made it clear that our present Greenbook rate and work rules would allow AMR to operate 100 seaters competitively.


Jet Blue is not a competitor of particular concern, since they operate a relatively insignificant portion of ASMs, attract mostly leisure traffic as opposed to taking passengers from AA, and will have a difficult time expanding further in JFK.


AMR would be wise to divest itself of American Eagle as soon as possible. The 50 seat jets that AMR has on order have generated large debt obligations and this aircraft will soon be obsolete, according to Mr. Boyd. AMR should pursue its feed as inexpensively as possible in the open market, rather than continuing to own American Eagle.



Interesting------and only his opinion....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

"AMR would be wise to divest itself of American Eagle as soon as possible. The 50 seat jets that AMR has on order have generated large debt obligations and this aircraft will soon be obsolete, according to Mr. Boyd. AMR should pursue its feed as inexpensively as possible in the open market, rather than continuing to own American Eagle."

Sure, half of what Mike Boyd says is a load of crap, but I am hearing this same theme over and over and over among a lot of so-called industry "experts," analysts and consultants. Continental did it with COEX. UAL doesn't own its feed. I'll bet you that Grinstein is thinking hard about his options as well. If Delta does head for bankruptcy, all bets are off given the precedents that have been already set...

 

[General Lee]

What about the Jetblue comment? Boyd thinks Jetblue is not a factor for AA at JFK?? Hmmmmmm?

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[eaglefly]

He told the APA what they wanted to hear :

1.) LCC's are not a threat, so do not capitulate on compensation.

2.) 50 seat RJ's will be obsolete shortly, so don't be concerned with them.

3.) Larger RJ's are the future, but don't lower yourselves to JetBlue.

I agree that AMR should spin-off Eagle.

No longer wholly owned Eagle could then be free to become an airline in and of itself.

I'm curious as to Boyd's comments on a few REALITIES.

1.) Mesa using 90-seaters and the fact that they are most likely (like it or not) setting the future labor standard for this class of A/C (in fact they are eyeing 737's).

2.) Indipendence Air (ACA) will be operating Airbuses at similar rates/work rules soon.

Will AA be signing up for this class of aircraft at regional rates soon ?

To be competetive, they'll have to.

No one believed the 50 seat RJ would change the industry 10 years ago.

WRONG.

Now no one believes (including Boyd) that the 90 seat RJ will follow the same path AT REGIONAL PAY AND WORKRULES/COMPENSATION (NO PENSION).

History repeats itself in front of our eyes :

- Air Wisconsin - 70-90 seat AVROS.

- Mesa - 90 CRJ (737 soon ?).

- Indipendance Air (Airbus soon).

If the APA want's them, they'll have to match the "new kids" to do it, otherwise someone else will get them.

Either way the bar for 100 seat or less flying (40-50% of domestic market) will be at regional pay/benefits.

I don't like it, you don't like it, but like going to the dentist, it's now reality.

ALPA national had the opportunity 10 years ago but blew it.

Xin Loi Babe.

It sucks, but too late now.

 

[bvt1151]

blah.

Search previous threads. I think Boyd's comments were predicted several times very accurately. He's entirely too predictable.

"RJ's are bad!"

"No matter what happens, we'll say we were right."

Like I said...blah.

 

[SuperFLUF]

Write down what Mike Boyd has to say and look at it again down the road. You'll find he's right 90% of the time.

Ignore him at your own peril.

 

[80drvr]

He told the APA what they wanted to hear :

1.) LCC's are not a threat, so do not capitulate on compensation.

2.) 50 seat RJ's will be obsolete shortly, so don't be concerned with them.

3.) Larger RJ's are the future, but don't lower yourselves to JetBlue.

I agree that AMR should spin-off Eagle.

No longer wholly owned Eagle could then be free to become an airline in and of itself.

I'm curious as to Boyd's comments on a few REALITIES.

1.) Mesa using 90-seaters and the fact that they are most likely (like it or not) setting the future labor standard for this class of A/C (in fact they are eyeing 737's).

2.) Indipendence Air (ACA) will be operating Airbuses at similar rates/work rules soon.

Will AA be signing up for this class of aircraft at regional rates soon ?

To be competetive, they'll have to.

No one believed the 50 seat RJ would change the industry 10 years ago.

WRONG.

Now no one believes (including Boyd) that the 90 seat RJ will follow the same path AT REGIONAL PAY AND WORKRULES/COMPENSATION (NO PENSION).

History repeats itself in front of our eyes :

- Air Wisconsin - 70-90 seat AVROS.

- Mesa - 90 CRJ (737 soon ?).

- Indipendance Air (Airbus soon).

If the APA want's them, they'll have to match the "new kids" to do it, otherwise someone else will get them.

Either way the bar for 100 seat or less flying (40-50% of domestic market) will be at regional pay/benefits.

I don't like it, you don't like it, but like going to the dentist, it's now reality.

ALPA national had the opportunity 10 years ago but blew it.

Xin Loi Babe.

It sucks, but too late now.

1. Unfortunately, AA already capitulated on compensation.

2. Boyd didn't say RJ's were obsolete; he basically said the number in service exceed the requirement and that many routes were not viable with 70 seat and below RJ's. The excess would reduce the aftermarket value of the airframes.

3. What's wrong with Jet Blue? Given they don't have a pay scale yet how do you know if it's competetive or not? How can they or SWA possibly make money if they aren't matching Mesa pay scales?

Like it or not, Boyd is right on the money on many of his predictions. Only time will tell on this one.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Independence rates in the neighborhood of Mesa 737 rates? Where does that come from? Our rates are actually a bit higher than Spirit's and on a par with Frontier's and Jetblue's. Please don't compare Independence Air to Mesa. Check the FACTS first.

www.airlinepilotpay.com

 

[Sniper@YourFeet]

Independence rates in the neighborhood of Mesa 737 rates . . . Check the FACTS first.

Mesa doesn't fly 73's, nor do they have any rate for them (an unoffical verbal proposal that was publicly denounced by Mesa's MEC is not a section 6 negotiated rate). You might want to check your facts.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Actually if you read the entire thread, I was responding to someone else who was comparing Independence Air's Airbus rates to Mesa's 737 rates -- which don't exist (yet he compared them.) Pointing out the absurdity is all.

Cheers!

 

[pilotyip]

AA doing something right

As seen ATW, AA's % reduction of labour costs in relation to revenue generated has been the best of all of the legecy airlines and they have shown the best increase in cash reserves among the legecy ailrines.

 

[On Your Six]

In Delta's case, ONLY the mainline pilots (the only union) are being targeted - no other labor group has been asked to accpet cuts.... American had participation by all labor groups I believe.

 

[On Your Six]

In Delta's case, ONLY the mainline pilots (the only union) are being targeted - no other labor group has been asked to accpet cuts.... American had participation by all labor groups I believe.

 

[On Your Six]

In Delta's case, ONLY the mainline pilots (the only union) are being targeted - no other labor group has been asked to accpet cuts.... American had participation by all labor groups I believe.

 

[Sniper@YourFeet]

What? I can't hear you. Can you say it again?

 

[Carl_Everett]

He told the APA what they wanted to hear :


2.) Indipendence Air (ACA) will be operating Airbuses at similar rates/work rules soon.


Now no one believes (including Boyd) that the 90 seat RJ will follow the same path AT REGIONAL PAY AND WORKRULES/COMPENSATION (NO PENSION).

History repeats itself in front of our eyes :


- Indipendance Air (Airbus soon).

Either Mr. Boyd or someone else has got this wrong. Independence Air will not be operating the Airbus at similiar rates/work rules as MESA.

A pension plan is another can of worms, but go ask someone from USAIR if they would have rather had a defined profit sharing plan put into a 401K over a traditional pension plan.

 

[80drvr]

Mr Boyd never said anything about Independance Air or Mesa rates. He said the the E-170 to E-195 series were not "RJ's" in any sense and that they made economic sense at mainline rates. This was supported by CASM/RASM modeling. It was a good presentation and consistent with what Boyd has been saying for years. He gave a similar presentation to the Board in 2000 before this latest narrowbody series was conceived.